Progress status of the Quarterly Institutional Accounts project OECD Working Party on Financial Statistics Conference centre, La Muette December, 2010 CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 Topics 2 I. Introduction II. Progress status of the project III. Preliminary results IV. Upcoming activities CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 I. Introduction CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 An initiative to develop measurement of institutional accounts on a quarterly basis has been underway in the CBCh since 2008. This initiative is based on the experience gained with the annual measurements performed Department of National Accounts. by the It has also benefited from the methods and sources of information used by the Bank of Spain for computing financial accounts. This presentation portrays the progress status and preliminary results of the project, which are still being assessed and analyzed with relation to balance sheet structures and financial transactions. 4 CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 II. Progress status of the project CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 In executing the work schedule of the project, methods, processes and a work team have been created... 6 Methodologies: The starting point is the methodology used for performing annual compilations. This individual sectoral compilation also breaks down data by sectors and financial instruments. The only source of information used are individual complete financial statements. Processes: Processes have been developed for managing basic information and for linking it with the method for structuring accounts. An IT platform was implemented, which gathers and standardizes the accounts related to each sector, and then proceeds to their synthesis, compatibilization and dissemination. CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 In executing the work schedule of the project, methods, processes and a work team have been created... Work Team: A work team was created and assigned specific responsibilities within each sector (Government, Finances, Corporations), and in relation with financial instruments (securities market). At present, preliminary progress has been made on Institutional Quarterly Accounts where financial statements cover the 2008q1– 2009q4 period. 7 CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 III. Preliminary results CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 Financial balance sheet structure at the institutional sector level CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 The balance sheet of the Chilean households shows that its main assets are the technical reserves of life insurances and pension funds. Figure 1. Comparison of Household sector balance sheet of OECD countries. Detailed financial assets. Percentage structure. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 HIGH similarity Currency and deposits Mutual fund shares 10 MEDIUM similarity Debt securities Reserves CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE LOW similarity Shares and other equity Other accounts DECEMBER 2010 Mexico Italy Germany Slovak Republic Greece Slovenia Czech Republic Estonia Austria Spain Korea Portugal Hungary Finland Poland Belgium Norway United States France Ireland Switzerland United Kingdom Sweden Netherlands Chile 0 Denmark 10 The balance sheet of Chile’s General government shows a significant holding of securities and deposits. Figure 2. Comparison of General government sector balance sheet of OECD countries. Detailed financial assets. Percentage structure. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 HIGH similarity Currency and deposits 11 MEDIUM similarity Debt securities Loans CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE LOW similarity Shares and other equity DECEMBER 2010 Other accounts Mexico Netherlands Switzerland United Kingdom Italy Iceland Hungary Poland France Slovenia Austria Czech Republic Ireland Germany Sweden Luxembourg Belgium Finland Slovak Republic Denmark Norway Portugal Estonia Greece Spain Korea Chile United States Japan 0 Canada 10 The main asset component of non-financial corporations are commercial loans and holdings of shares and other equity. Figure 3. Balance sheet of the Chilean Non-financial Corporate sector. Detailed financial assets and liabilities. Percentage structure. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Financial assets Currency and deposits Loans Mutual fund shares Other accounts 12 CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE Liabilities Debt securities Shares and other equity Reserves DECEMBER 2010 The financial sector holds an asset portfolio composed mainly of loans (46%) and securities other than shares (29%). Figure 4. Balance sheet of the Chilean Financial Corporate sector. Detailed assets and liabilities. Percentage structure. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Financial assets Currency and deposits Loans Mutual fund shares Other accounts 13 CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE Liabilities Debt securities Shares and other equity Reserves DECEMBER 2010 Preliminary evidence of the financial and economic crisis in the accounts of the Household sector CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 Household debt shrunk from 62% of disposable income by early 2008, to 58% during the height of the crisis. Figure 5. Debt/Income ratio of Households and changes in disposable income. Percentage. 16 62.0 61.5 14 61.0 60.5 12 60.0 10 59.5 8 59.0 58.5 6 58.0 4 57.5 2 57.0 0 56.5 I III II IV 2008 Debt/ Disposable income ratio (%) 15 CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE I III II IV 2009 Annual change of disposable income (%) DECEMBER 2010 In 2008, pension funds losses from revaluations amounted to 13% of GDP. Figure 6. Changes in Pension fund reserves. Billions of pesos. 6000 70000 4000 60000 2000 50000 0 40000 -2000 30000 -4000 20000 -6000 10000 -8000 0 I II III IV I 2008 II III 2009 Revaluations Other changes in volume Financial transactions Closing financial balance sheet 16 CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 IV During 2009, a gradual return occurred towards investments offering a higher return, to the detriment of securities and deposits holdings. Figure 7. Financial transactions of Households. Billions of pesos. 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 IV -500 I II III 2008 IV 2009 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 17 Currency and deposits & Debt securities Shares and other equity & Mutual fund shares CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 III. Upcoming activities CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 In the coming months: 19 Work will continue in determining sectoral counterparts for financial instruments, bonds, shares, and trade credit. A comprehensive assessment will be carried out to check the consistency of financial and non-financial accounts, mainly for the Household and Non-financial Corporate sectors. Progress will continue to be done as to the extension of available time series, to cover from the first quarter of 2005 to the second quarter of 2010. Publication of this new statistic is projected for the second quarter of next year. CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010 Progress status of the Quarterly Institutional Accounts project OECD Working Party on Financial Statistics Conference centre, La Muette December, 2010 CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE DECEMBER 2010