Reconciliation of quarterly non-financial
and financial accounts
Carina K. Friis
Danmarks Nationalbank
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
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Production of quarterly sector accounts

Danmarks Nationalbank: Quarterly financial
sector accounts



Danmarks Statistik: Quarterly non-financial
sector accounts



Stocks from 1998, transactions and flows from 2003
Published first time in 2004 (transactions in 2006)
Data from 1990 and onwards
Published first time in 2008
Planning to publish integrated accounts in
January 2010

Period: 2003 and onwards.
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
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Why integration?

User considerations:




A consistent framework will make financial accounts
more usable.
Integrated national accounts contribute to the analysis
of interactions between the financial and real economy
and thereby contribute to appropriate economic and
monetary policy.
Contribution to over-all quality of national accounts
Keeping transparency is an issue
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
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The process of integration


Short-term: The non-financial accounts are taken
as given.
Medium-term:



Identify further elements which can improve our
reconciliation
Exchange of financial-flow data as a input to the nonfinancial accounts (dividends and interest on bonds
and deposits from MFI- and SEC-statistics).
Long-term:


Continued and intensified co-operation between NSI
and NCB.
Further development of sources.
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
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Accumulated statistical
discrepancies
Bn. DKK
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
Households (S.14)
Rest of the world (S.2)
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
20092
20091
20084
20083
20082
20081
20074
20073
20072
20071
20064
20063
20062
20061
20054
20053
20052
20051
20044
20043
20042
20041
20034
20033
20032
20031
-150
Non-financial corporations (S.11)
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Selected reconciliation elements to
be introduced in the short run




S. 2: Close to proportional distribution of
statistical discrepancies
S.122: Differences in deposits assets/liabilities for
MFI vs. MFI
S.14/S.11: Better estimation of unquoted shares
(balances and transactions)
All sectors/Use of AF.7: Only if we can make an
argument for a timing difference between the
transaction and the corresponding payment.
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
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Reconciliation of S.2




No clear bias
In close corporation with the IIP-section
(also placed in NCB)
We have chosen to distribute E&O by a IIP
key.
Continued work on minimizing E&O related
to coverage, improved quality of sources
etc.
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
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Reconciliation of S.122
Bn. DKK
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Deposit s report ed as asset
20092
20091
20084
20083
20082
20081
20074
20073
20072
20071
20064
20063
20062
20061
20054
20053
20052
20051
20044
20043
20042
20041
20034
20033
20032
20031
0
Deposit s report ed as liabilit ies
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
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S.14 (S.11 residual) – The only sector with a
clear bias in statistical discrepancy…

The coverage of unquoted shares issued by S.11
and held by S.11 and S.14 is limited.
Transactions of unquoted shares between S.11 and
S.14 is NOT neutral to net lending/net borrowing.

Assumption: A continued sale of unquoted
shares from S.14 to S.11

Among others due to generational changes.
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
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Estimation of unquoted shares
Unquoted shares
issued by nonfinancial
corporations
(book-value)
Business account
database
Final distribution
among holders
(marked-value)
Distribution among holders
(book-value)
Distribution based on
BvD-data
Households
(S.14+S.15)
Non-financial
corporations (S.11)
Residual to be divided between
S.11 and S.14+S.15
At identificationnumber level
Financial corporations (S.12)
P/B
Financial
corporations (S.12)
Book-value
General Government (S.13)
(Identification-number level)
General Government
(S.13)
Rest of the world (S.2)
(Identification-number level)
Rest of the world
(S.2)
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
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A continued sale of unquoted
shares from S.14 to S.11??

Preliminary results from ”Estimation of unquoted shares”:



Quarterly financial accounts currently underestimates unquoted
shares issued by S.11. (preliminary estimates suggest that the
amount of unquoted shares is around four times as big as quoted
shares)
Both S.14 and S.11 possess considerable amounts of unquoted
shares issued by S.11 (distribution around 30/70).
Preliminary estimation’s based on the tax base and SECdata concerning income from stocks.


A considerable part (more than 50 pct.) of the tax base concerns
income from unquoted shares.
A considerable part of the tax base concerns sale of unquoted
shares.
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
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A continued sale of unquoted
shares from S.14 to S.11??

Existing analysis concerning generational
changes.




In the period 1995-2003 on average 13,4 per cent of generational
changes resulted in sales to S.11.
Sales to S.11 was in particular shares issued by S.11
The likelihood of a sale to S.11 is increasing in size of total
balance on the corporation in question.
Conclusion: Transactions in unquoted shares is a
major source of statistical discrepancies between
quarterly Danish financial and non-financial
accounts of the household and non-financial
sectors.
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
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Way Forward


8’th of January: Publication of a first set of
reconciled data 2003-2009Q3
Identification of further elements to
enhance the quality of the quarterly sector
accounts and thereby minimizing the need
for reconciliation
DANMARKS NATIONALBANK
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