Quarterly Sector Accounts in the European Union - Recent and future developments - OECD - NA Working Party 4-6 November 2009 Eurostat / Denis Leythienne A joint Eurostat – ECB project Eurostat compiles the non-financial accounts - of the European Union - of the euro area (in cooperation with ECB) ECB compiles the financial accounts - of the euro area (MUFA) - reconciles them with non-financial accounts within the EAA Scope of this presentation: non-financial accounts (QSA) Quarterly Sector Accounts in the European Union Milestones Data collection European accounts Results Future developments Milestones 1996: ESA95 Transmission programme 2000: Action Plan on EMU Statistical Requirements 2005: QSA Regulation (EC-1161/2005) 2006: First Publication of European ASA 2007: First publication of European QSA Data collection Full but simplified set of non-financial accounts - From Value Added to net lending / borrowing Institutional sectors - Non-financial corporations (S11) - Financial corporations (S12) - Government (S13)* - Households+NPISH (S14+S15) - Rest of the World (S2)* (*: Sectors to be reported by countries < 1% EU-GDP) Transmission deadline: Q + 90 days Data collection Validation - Accounting constraints (Resources/Uses, Balancing items) - Consistency vis-à-vis related statistics (ASA / QNA / Government / BOP) - Revision analysis - Plausibility of quarterly patterns => Data sharing (next slide) gross disposable income (lef t-hand scale) f inal consumption (lef t-hand scale) saving rate (right-hand scale) 195 170 25 COUNTRY A 20 145 15 120 10 5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 95 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 gross disposable income (lef t-hand scale) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 f inal consumption (lef t-hand scale) saving rate (right-hand scale) 200 20 COUNTRY B Possible outliers 15 150 10 125 5 100 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 175 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 European accounts Aggregation of the NA of the Member States European institutions Country A Country B European accounts European institutions Country A Country B Results News release at Q + 120 days – EA and EU aggregates – Jointly with QFA of the EA (ECB) – No country breakdown Focus on seasonally adjusted data for key indicators: - Household saving rate: B6G/(B8G+D8net) Household investment rate: P51/(B8G+D8net) Investment rate of non-financial corporations: P51/B1G Profit share of non-financial corporations: B2G/B1G Decomposition of nominal growth Household saving rate 17% Euro area 17% EU27 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 16% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Household investment rate 12% Euro area 12% EU27 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 11% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Investment rate of non-financial corporations Euro area 25% EU27 25% 24% 23% 23% 22% 22% 21% 21% 20% 20% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 24% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Profit share of non-financial corporations 40% Euro area 40% EU27 39% 38% 38% 37% 37% 36% 36% 35% 35% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 39% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Others Decomposition of the nominal growth of GDP (EA16, seasonally adjusted, current prices) Net exports 5% Government net lending (+) / borrowing (-) 4% 3% Government revenue Hholds social contributions and income taxes 2% Business (NFC): Changes in inventories 1% Business (NFC): Investment 0% Hholds: Investment -1% Hholds: Gross saving (-) -2% Hholds: Net property income -3% Hholds: Gross Operating Surplus -4% Hholds: Gross wages -5% Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 2008 Q4 Q1 Q2 2009 Nominal growth of GDP Future developments End 2009: publication of key indicators by country: - Broad country coverage - Focus on key indicators - 4 quarter cumulated sums 2010: Inventories of QSA Sources & Methods (Restricted release) 2014: Revised ESA transmission programme - QSA merged with government statistics - Seasonally adjusted data by country (e.g. for key indicators) - Price / Volume data by country (e.g. for VA and investment) For more information: => http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/sectoraccounts (Eurostat) => http://www.ecb.eu/stats/acc/html/index.en.html (ECB)