FINANCING STRATEGIES FOR WATER AND ENVIRONMENTAL INFRASTRUCTURE Global Forum on Sustainable Development Paris 18 December 2003 Grzegorz Peszko Environmental Finance Program Manager NMC Division, OECD Environment Directorate Do we know how much we need? … to achieve the water and environment-related international development goals in the Millennium Declaration? Worldwide estimates for water-related MDGs: additional $16Bln p/a (GWP), $9Bln to $30Bln p/a (WB), $25Bln p/a (Wateraid). Uncertainties about interpretation of the MDG goals, assumptions, costing methodologies remain But no panic necessary - costs are not magic figures cast in stone, depend on how we want to achieve MDGs, what exactly this imply in the field, and when. Catastrophic cost estimates breed inaction Bridging financing gaps to meet MDGs Rescheduling or modifying targets Finding cheaper ways of achieving given targets Knowing better how much we spend already to achieve the MDGs targets Increasing and diversifying finance Focus of this presentation How much we spend? OECD: Pollution Abatement and Control expenditures Total PAC expenditures in the range of 0.8 to 2.8% (Poland) of GDP PAC investments in the range of 0.9% - 3.8% (Czech Republic) of GFCF Growing share of current expenditure Uneven but progressive application of PPP and UPP Developing countries: Estimates of present expenditures in water sector: $10Bln-$80Bln/a We do not know well how much we spend Different classifications and definitions used Problems with double counting: expenditure data “by abater” and “by financier” principle Treatment of specialised producers (e.g. utilities) Problems with comparing “apples with oranges”: e.g. expenditures with costs, investments with total Problems with discretionary judgments – e.g. integrated technologies Problems with data coverage: cross-country comparison and time trends difficult Environmentally Extended Expenditure in Selected Economies in Transition (as share of GDP in 2000) Moldova Kazakhstan Ukraine Russian Fed. Georgia Uzbekistan Armenia Turkmenistan Kyrgyz Republic Azerbaijan Estonia Romania Bulgaria Latvia Lithuania Slovenia Czech Republic Poland Slovak Republic Hungary Germany Portugal 0 Source: OECD 1 2 3 % 4 5 6 Environmentally Extended Investment Expenditure in Selected countries (as share of GFCF in 2000) Russian Fed. Georgia Ukraine Armenia Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyz Republic Azerbaijan Moldova Romania Bulgaria Lithuania Poland Czech Republic Hungary Portugal Germany Source: OECD 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 But what are weights of different sources? Who finances and who ultimately pays? National and sub-national governments Users Local governments Domestic taxpayers Local communities Foreign taxpayers Service providers (specialised producers) Private intermediaries institutions of financial and capital markets International financial institutions Foreign governments (ODA, export credits) Future users The poor (for low level of infrastructure services) Data by financing sources not collected systematically even in OECD countries Transfers are difficult to trace (especially subsidies) Financing capital investments is not enough Operation and maintenance – to ensure sustainability Return on investments and debt service – to attract commercial finance Reforms and innovations in financial architecture needed … but no paradigm shift around the corner Every financial institution has a role to play with large menus of financial products Smart blending needed, leveraging, not crowding out Constituency for efficiency, especially in public sector Realism and innovations, rather than “one size fits all” solutions No magic bullet, such as public budget, ODA or private sector participation, will alone hit the MDGs Strategic, realistic and systematic approaches to exploit synergies between financial sources needed – financing strategies ONE POSSIBLE MODEL FOR DEVELOPING FINANCING STRATEGIES: „FEASIBLE” Affordability assessment LESSONS LEARNED FROM «FEASIBLE» FINANCING STRATEGIES In most FSU and in China baseline finance is not sufficient to cover even regular O&M and modest infrastructure development targets Policy and institutional failures are usually responsible for low investments and funding Shares of different sources in financing water and wastewater utilities 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Sichuan Novgorod Kaliningrad oblast Province User charges Pskov Georgia Rostov Public budgets Source: OECD, data from the base year of analysis Ukraine Moldova Other Eastern Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Lessons learned from FEASIBLE financing strategies: Users must pay User fees – the key to any sustainable financing system of water and environmental infrastructure No sustainable alternative to cover operational and maintenance costs (typical full cost coverage in OECD countries) Increasing coverage of investment costs (e.g. return on equity) and debt service precondition to attract external private finance Governments need to ensure that tariffs are established at realistic and affordable levels, often in the face of political opposition Can users pay?… Want to pay? Users often are able to pay (ATP) more affordability benchmarks vary Willingness to pay (WTP) can be higher or lower than ATP; WTP can be influenced by policy. Another bottleneck: willingness to charge by government (WTC). Models of social safety nets income support to households or regions cost/price subsidies mixed Governments (taxpayers) will always have to pay Provision of pure public goods and subsidising quasi private goods (e.g. drinking water, district heat) Correction for externalities (wastewater, solid waste – financing incremental costs) Market creation (regulation, institutions building) Market access (risk sharing, credit enhancement, subsidies) Social safety nets Local financial and capital markets Financing water/environmental infrastructure in developing countries still at infant stage, but growing Benefits: more sustainable than public budgets and ODA, reduce currency mismatches Maturity mismatch a problem: access to long term savings Credit market architecture a problem: low institutional capacity, no credit record, disclosure of financial information, rating Local finance a problem – unclear responsibilities not matched with access to revenues, unclear property regimes, ineffective supervision of local borrowing Risk profile difficult to estimate. Interim risk sharing with public sector needed. Clear risk allocation and enforceable contracts are part of enabling framework. International financial institutions (IFI) Important role in capital investments Demonstration and catalytic function – quality of projects Engineering, financial and management discipline Paving the way for greater reliance on debt financing – risk mitigation Development of long term local credit systems Private operators and strategic investors Service providers (it costs, but gains are efficiency, financial viability, know-how transfer) Usually management rather than financing solution. Credit enhancement of public utilities Equity and strategic management Need for effective regulation of private monopoly Development assistance Generally decreasing, but some regions are politically trendy Emerging trend to use donor assistance to finance sustainable local financial mechanisms rather than individual projects Untied procurement became common More strategic perspective needed (commitments for multiyear programs rather than individual projects) Better integration between investment support, TA and support for policy reforms LESSONS LEARNED FROM «FEASIBLE» FINANCING STRATEGIES Good data and information essential Unrealistic targets can undermine progress and breed cynicism water supply and wastewater infrastructure need to be integrated Financing strategies are no self-fulfilling prophecies - need to be implemented (policies, institutions, instruments) Good governance, right policies and regulations are as important as finance LESSONS LEARNED FROM «FEASIBLE» FINANCING STRATEGIES Without specific incentives, infrastructure will be excessively costly and inefficient Strategic framework needs to be filled with rolling mid-term investment program and solid project pipelines FEASIBLE analyses already made impacts in many countries: More transparent, rational dialogues More realistic targets More diversified financing ACCESS TO ’FEASIBLE ’ TOOLKIT “FEASIBLE-1Beta” Excel model has been available as public domain and widely used for 2 years. “FEASIBLE-2” in testing. Fully operational in public domain since January 2001. For publication “Financing Strategies for Water and Environmental Infrastructure” visit www.SourceOECD.org For information how to receive the FEASIBLE model and users manual visit: www.oecd.org/env/finance www.cowi.dk/publications/div01pub/index.htm www.mst.dk/homepage To get more information on country studies in FSU and download documentation, visit visual projects database at: http://oecd.hybrid.pl