ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST
DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH
MERCHANDISE TRADE
Nihan ODABAŞI
Assistant Foreign Trade Expert
7 November 2011
Working Party on International Trade in Goods and Trade in
Services Statistics (WPTGS)
Latest Developments in Turkish Economy-I
 Turkish economy registered the most rapid economic growth in Europe
for 2010 and for the first half of 2011.
 While total domestic demand increased by 13.4 % in 2010, this rate was
16.5 % for the 1st quarter of 2011 and 13.6 % for the 2nd quarter of 2011.
 Industrial production index increased by a fairly high proportion of 13.1 %
in 2010. In addition, it has also remarkable increase rates in the first eight
months of 2011.
 Unemployment rate has risen up to 16.1 % in February 2009 during
global crises period. It dropped towards 11.9 % in 2010 because of the rapid
economic recovery and production increase.
 Whereas Turkish merchandise exports and imports were 113.9 bn dollars
and 185.5 bn dollars in 2010 respectively, exports were realized by 88.7 bn
dollars and imports were realized by 160.1 bn dollars in the first eight
months of 2011.
November 2011
Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment
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Latest Developments in Turkish Economy-II
 Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 7.66 % in October 2011
according to the same month of the previous year. And, it also increased by
3.27 % compared with the previous month of this year.
 While Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 12.58 % in October 2011
according to the same month of the previous year, the monthly increase in
PPI was realised by 1.60 %.
 When current account deficit was realised by 47.7 bn dollars in 2010, it
was realised by 54.3 bn dollars in the first eight months of 2011.
 9.3 bn dollars foreign direct investment entered into Turkey in 2010. This
value was realised by 10.1 bn dollars in the first eight months of 2011.
November 2011
Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment
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Foreign Trade and GDP (%)
50.0
40.7
40.0
30.0
20.0
34.5
31.0
33.7
31.7
24.5
19.7
16.3
15.1
19.5
16.4
25.4
21.8
23.1
18.8
11.5
10.0
-4.8
0.0
6.2
5.3
9.4
8.4
6.9
4.7
0.7
9.0
-10.0
-20.0
-22.6
-30.0
-30.2
-40.0
Exports
Imports
Real GDP Growth (%)
Source: TURKSTAT
 There is a similarity between GDP growth and the percentage changes of
export and import since 2002.
November 2011
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Foreign Trade Developments
2009 - 2010 / Jan.-Aug. 2011
Exports (FOB)
Imports (CIF)
Yearly
(Billion Dollars)
2009
2010
102.1
113.9
140.9
185.5
Trade Volume
243.1
299.4
23.2
187.7
248.8
32.6
Trade Balance
Exports / Imports (%)
-38.8
72.5
-71.7
61.4
84.8
-42.1
63
-71.4
55
69.5
--
Change (%)
10/09
11.6
31.7
-
Jan.-Aug.
(Billion Dollars)
2010
2011
88.7
72.8
114.9
160.1
Change (%)
11/10
21.9
39.3
Source: Turkstat
In the period of January-August 2011 compared with the same month of 2010,
Exports and imports increased by 21.9 % and 39.3 % respectively.
Trade deficit reached to 71.4 billion dollars, rising by 69.5 %.
November 2011
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Monthly Developments of Exports and Imports
Source: Turkstat
Exports;
Gradual increase since May 2009.
November 2011
Imports;
 Gradual increase in parallel with exports.
Directorate General of Economic Research and Assessment
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Foreign Trade Indices-Methodology
 Produced by Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat)
 Used by governmental institutions, private sector and all universities in Turkey
 Calculated indices: * Unit value index
* Volume index
* Terms of trade index
* Value index




Calculated by Eurostat and UN concepts and methods
Issued by classifications of ISIC Rev.3, BEC, SITC, CPA
Released period: Monthly, quarterly, yearly
Method: Unit value indices – Fisher formula
Volume indices – The ratio of the value indices to the fisher
unit value indices
Terms of trade indices – The ratio of the export unit value index to
the import value index
 Valuation: Unit value indices are calculated by US Dollars and Turkish Lira
November 2011
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Export Unit Value and Volume Indices-I
180
167.5
157
160
166.7
164.6
154.8
141.3
140
126.2
122.9
100
80
139.7
116.3
120
100
146.5
144.5
88.7
127.7
114.3
100
83.7
60
2002
2003
2004
2005
Export Unit Value Index
2006
2007
2008
Export Volume Index
2009
2010
2003=100
Source: Turkstat
Export volume index is higher than export unit value index except the years of
2002, 2004 and 2008 in Turkey .
November 2011
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Export Unit Value and Volume Indices-II
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
196.9
183.3
182.3
179.3
178.8
172.2 171.2
173.9
163.0
168.3
147.8 145.7 144.3
144.0
150.7
158.2
156.2
155.4
161.2
164.9
169.0 165.8 168.8 168.2
166.4
159.2
144.4
146.4 144.4
172.0
171.3
167.7
151.9 152.6 152.8 153.4
143.6 145.6
141.5
134.6
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2010
Export Unit Value Index
Jul
Aug
2011
Export Volume Index
2003=100
Source: Turkstat
 In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year,
o Export unit value index is increased by 15.9 %
• The export unit value index for agriculture and forestry, fishery,
mining, manufacturing increased by 10.5 %, 19.3%, 10%, 16.3%,
respectively.
November 2011
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Export Unit Value and Volume Indices-III
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
196.9
183.3
182.3
179.3
178.8
172.2 171.2
173.9
163.0
168.3
147.8 145.7 144.3
144.0
150.7
158.2
156.2
155.4
161.2
164.9
169.0 165.8 168.8 168.2
166.4
159.2
144.4
146.4 144.4
172.0
171.3
167.7
151.9 152.6 152.8 153.4
143.6 145.6
141.5
134.6
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2010
Export Unit Value Index
Jul
Aug
2011
Export Volume Index
2003=100
Source: Turkstat
 In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year,
o Export volume index is increased by 14.1 %
• While the export volume index for fishing, manufacturing increased
by 11.5 %, 15.6 %, respectively, the index for agriculture and forestry
decreased by 14.4 %. The index for mining remained unchanged.
November 2011
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Import Unit Value and Volume Indices-I
200
177.5
180
160
136.1
121.7
120
147.2
143.2
154.6
141.9
134.1
123.3
100
80
164.1
147.7
140
100
173
166.6
88.7
115.1
100
80.2
60
2002
2003
2004
2005
Import Unit Value Index
2006
2007
2008
Import Volume Index
2009
2010
2003=100
Source: Turkstat
 Import volume index is higher than import unit value index except the years of
2002 and 2008 in Turkey.
November 2011
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Import Unit Value and Volume Indices-II
217.6
220
211.2
205.2
200
185.6
180
160
199.3
197.5 199.1
170.6
175.7
165.8 166.1
152.8 150.6
150.7
152.4
140
132.4
184.5
175.4 176.2
156.0 153.4
183.9
181.1
173.9 175.3
161.3 163.7 163.4
168.0
172.9
177.4
183.6 182.6 182.0 181.4 183.5
152.3 153.6
150.0
135.3
120
100
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2010
Import Unit Value Index
Jul
Aug
2011
Import Volume Index
2003=100
Source: Turkstat
 In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year,
o Import unit value index is increased by 20.5 %
• The import unit value index for agriculture and forestry, mining,
manufacturing increased by 42.4 %, 28.7 %, 17.3 %, respectively
November 2011
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Import Unit Value and Volume Indices-III
217.6
220
211.2
205.2
200
185.6
180
160
199.3
197.5 199.1
170.6
175.7
165.8 166.1
152.8 150.6
150.7
152.4
140
132.4
184.5
175.4 176.2
156.0 153.4
183.9
181.1
173.9 175.3
161.3 163.7 163.4
168.0
172.9
177.4
183.6 182.6 182.0 181.4 183.5
152.3 153.6
150.0
135.3
120
100
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2010
Import Unit Value Index
Jul
Aug
2011
Import Volume Index
2003=100
Source: Turkstat
 In August 2011, compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year,
o Import volume index is increased by 4.9 %
• While the import volume index for agriculture and forestry and
mining decreased by 14.9 %, 6.2 %, respectively, the index for
manufacturing increased by 8.6 %
November 2011
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Correlation Between Import, Export and Manufacturing Industry
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
70
2008
2009
Import Volume Index
Export Volume Index
2010
2011
Manufacturing Industry Production Index
2005=100
Source: Turkstat
In January 2008-August 2011,
o There is 90 % correlation between manufacturing industry production
and import volume indices
o There is 77 % correlation between manufacturing industry production
and export volume indices
November 2011
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Unit Value Indices of Exports, Imports & Terms of Trade
102
210
100
98
96
170
94
92
150
90
130
88
Terms of Trade
Unit Value Indices
190
86
110
84
82
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
90
2008
2003=100
2009
Import Unit Value Index
2010
Export Unit Value Index
2011
Terms of Trade
Source: Turkstat
In Turkey import prices are higher than export prices in general. According to
the higher import prices, terms of trade are fixed down the value of 100. As a
result, much more amount of goods should be exported for a unit of imports.
November 2011
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Export Unit Value and Volume Indices by Sector (ISIC)
ISIC: International Standard Industrial Classification
2003=100
(MILLION DOLLARS)
2009
Unit Value
Index
2010
Volume Unit Value
Index
Index
Volume
Index
AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY
176.0
116.5
189.1
123.2
FISHERY
107.2
218.4
112.1
165.7
MINING AND QUARRYING
144.2
248.8
168.6
338.4
MANUFACTURING
138.3
155.5
144.4
164.6
MOTOR VEHICLES, TRAILERS AND SEMI-TRAILERS
131.2
180.4
125.9
216.0
BASIC METALS
165.8
234.5
197.8
188.1
TEXTILES
124.3
112.0
130.9
121.6
WEARING APPAREL, DRESSING AND DYEING OF FUR
127.6
92.3
128.5
101.5
MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT
FOOD PRODUCTS AND BEVERAGES
CHEMICALS AND CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS, EXCEPT MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT
RUBBER AND PLASTIC PRODUCTS
ELECTRICAL MACHINERY AND APPARATUS
140.2
153.9
145.2
170.2
144.6
178.2
139.7
184.7
145.4
156.1
174.7
190.6
188.4
154.8
138.2
161.5
151.9
167.6
144.2
179.7
146.5
210.0
156.7
198.1
197.5
231.5
221.8
164.6
GENERAL
Source:Turkstat
November 2011
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Import Unit Value and Volume Indices by Sector (BEC)
BEC: Broad Economic Categories
2003=100
2009
2010
Unit Value
Index
Volume
Index
Unit Value
Index
Volume
Index
CAPITAL GOODS
106.4
178.1
104.8
242.9
INTERMEDIATE GOODS
157.7
126.8
178.5
148.0
Unprocessed materials incidental to industry
Processed materials incidental to industry
Unprocessed fuels and oils
Parts of investment goods
165.7
148.5
225.6
120.2
112.3
121.5
98.7
142.5
220.3
168.6
259.6
115.4
129.7
144.5
107.3
162.2
Parts of transportation vehicles
Unprocessed materials of food and beverages
Processed materials of food and beverages
Processed fuels and oils
131.8
158.7
179.7
184.1
150.7
136.6
127.7
190.0
125.5
163.6
190.5
229.3
213.4
178.5
111.2
206.6
119.6
206.3
118.4
267.4
141.9
143.2
154.6
173.0
CONSUMPTION GOODS
TOTAL
Source: Turkstat
November 2011
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ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST
DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKISH
MERCHANDISE TRADE
NİHAN ODABAŞI
Assistant Foreign Trade Expert
Republic of Turkey Ministry of Economy
General Directorate of Economic Research and Assessment
odabasin@ekonomi.gov.tr