World Meteorological Organization
Working together in weather, climate and water
WMO
2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial
Management of Large-scale Catastrophes
Session 1: Learning from the past and looking ahead: Thailand and South East Asia five years after
the tsunami, and facing the threats of global warming.
Role of WMO and National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services in Disaster Risk Reduction
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme
September 24, 2009, Bangkok, Thailand
www.wmo.int
AGENDA
1. After Tsunami
2. Managing Meteorological, Hydrological and
Climate related risks
3. Role of HydroMet Services in Disaster Risk
Management
– Risk assessment
– Risk Reduction and Early Warning Systems
– Risk Transfer
4. WMO initiatives
Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004
•
Ocean based Tsunami observing system installed (UNESCOIOC)
•
2 international Tsunami Watch Centers designated (JMA,
PTWC)
•
WMO Global Telecommunication System updated in 8
countries

•
All countries receive Tsunami Watch under 5 minute
All countries in Indian Ocean have National Focal Points for
Tsunami watch
BUT Disaster risk management and emergency
preparedness in most countries is still reactive and
remain to be addressed
Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural
Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007)
in South and South-East Asia
Number of events - 1980-2007
South and South East Asia
Wild Fires
1%
Wave-Surge
1%
Volcano
3%
Drought
3%
Wind Storm
28%
Earthquake
6%
Slides
7%
Epidemic
11%
Flood
37%
Extreme
Temperatur
11%
90% of events
55% of casualties
84% of economic losses
are related to hydro-meteorological
hazards and conditions.
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
Economic losses - 1980-2007
South and South East Asia
Casualties - 1980-2007
South and South East Asia
Wind Storm
35%
Earthquake
8%
Epidemic
6%
Wind Storm
28%
Wild Fires
8%
Extreme
Temperature
2%
Flood
11%
Wave-Surge
9%
Wave-Surge
37%
Flood
45%
Slides
1%
Drought
3%
Earthquake
7%
Bangladesh, Buthan,
Cambodia, India,
Indonesia, Lao PDR,
Malaysia, Maldives,
Myanmar, Nepal,
Philippines,
Singapore, SriLanka,
Thailand, Vietnam
Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters,
Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural
hazards (1980-2007)
Number of
disaster
events
Economic losses
(billions US $)
Loss of life
700,000
2,500
700
Hydrometeorological
Geological
600,000
2,000
Hydrometeorological
Geological
Hydrometeorological
Geological
600
500,000
500
1,500
400,000
400
300,000
1,000
300
200,000
200
500
100,000
100
0
Afr
ic
As
SS
So
NPa
Eu
a ( ia (R E As uth A C Am cific rope
RA
ia
me
AI
(R
& C (RA
I)
I)
ric
V) A VI
ar r
a
)
.
(R
A I (RA
II)
IV)
Number of events
0
Afr
A
S
N
SS
P
E
ica sia
E A outh -C A acifi urop
(R
c
m
e
(R
A
s
me
AI
i
& C (RA
(R
AI
I) a
ric
)
arr
V) A VI
a
.
)
(R
A I (RA
II)
IV)
Loss of life
0
Afr
A
S
N
SS
P
E
ica sia
E A outh -C A acifi urop
(R
c
m
e
(R
A
s
me
ia
& C (RA
(R
A I A II
AV
ric
)
)
a
V
a
rr .
)
I)
(R
A I (RA
II)
IV)
Economic Losses
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc
Climate change impact in South and South East Asia
IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007)
• Increase in occurrence in extreme weather events: heat
waves and intense precipitation events
• Increase of 10-20 % in Tropical Cyclones intensities for a
rise of sea surface temperature of 2 to 4 degrees
• Expansion of areas under severe water stress
• Increased flooding risks during wet season and
possibilities of water shortage in dry season on the
Mekong river
• Sea level rise could flood the residence of millions of
people in the low-level areas (Vietnam, Bangladesh and
India)
• Increased in climate related diseases (diarrhea and
malnutrition, infectious diseases such as cholera)
How WMO’s Research and
Operational Network of National
Meteorological and Hydrological
Services support Disaster Risk
Management
WMO leverages global, regional, national
cooperation to ensure development and availability
of meteorological, hydrological and climate
services at the national level.
WMO has been coordinating International
Research Programmes in Weather and Climate
World Climate Research Programme, World Weather Research Programme
Northern
Atlantic
Oscillation
Operational
forecasting
systems
Pacific
Decadal
Oscillation
IPCC Assessments
UNFCCC
negotiations
WMO Coordinates a Global Network for Monitoring, Detection
and Forecasting of Hazards Operated by National
Meteorological Services
2
Global Observing System
4
1
National
Meteorological
&
Hydrological
3
Services
Global Data Processing and Forecasting
Global Telecommunication System
Communication and
Dissemination of Processed
information
5
National Meteorological
and Hydrological Services
Examples:
6
Global Tropical Cyclone and Storm
Watch System
Emergency Response Activities
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting
Media
General
public
Government and
civil defence
authorities
Private
sector
WMO Network Supports National Early Warning
Systems such as the Cyclone Preparedness Programme
in Bangladesh
WMO Disaster Risk Reduction
Programme was established in
2003 to …
Leverage WMO’s Research and Operational
Network and partnerships to support disaster
risk reduction at the national level in a more
comprehensive and coordinated manner
Hyogo Framework for Action…
… change in paradigm of DRM
•
Traditionally, disaster risk management has been
focused on post disaster response in most countries!
•
Adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005 is
leading to a new paradigm in disaster risk management
involving investments in preparedness and prevention
through risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer
….
Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM would
require meteorological, hydrological and climate
information and services!
Comprehensive National Disaster Risk Management
Programmes
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources
multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration
Risk Identification
Risk Reduction
Risk Transfer
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
1
Climate forecasting
and trend analysis
Exposed assets &
vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
PREPAREDNESS:
early warning systems
emergency planning
CAT insurance & bonds
2
MITIGATION AND
PREVENTION:
Medium to long term sectoral
planning (e.g. zoning,
infrastructure, agriculture)
3
Weather-indexed
insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Information and Knowledge Sharing
Education and training
WMO Action Plan for Disaster strengthening Risk
Reduction at national and regional level
1.
Modernized Hydromet Services and observing networks.
2. Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early
warning systems.
3.
Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk
assessment capacities.
4. Strengthened Hydromet Services cooperation and
partnerships with civil protection and disaster risk
management agencies.
5.
Trained management and staff of Hydromet Services
6. Enhanced ministerial and public awareness
Role of National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment
Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources
multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration
Risk Identification
Risk Reduction
Risk Transfer
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting
and trend analysis
Exposed assets &
vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
PREPAREDNESS:
early warning systems
emergency planning
MITIGATION AND
PREVENTION:
Medium to long term sectoral
planning (e.g. zoning,
infrastructure, agriculture)
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed
insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Information and Knowledge Sharing
Education and training
Role of National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment
Provision of hazard data and analysis to
support risk assessment:
– Historical and real-time hazard databases
and metadata
– Hazard analysis and mapping
methodologies
– Forward looking hazard trend analysis
• Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts
• Probabilitic climate models
Th
er
st St
or ro
m ng
or w
lig ind
ht s
ni
n
D g
ro
H ug
ea h
Fl t w t
av
a
R
e
iv sh
er flo
flo od
o
H din
ai
ls g
D tor
en m
s
C ef
Sm
ol o
g
d
ok H
e, eav wav
e
H Du y
az
s
ar st o no
ds r w
t o Ha
z
Ea a vi e
at
C
r
oa th io
n
s q
Fo T tal ua
re rop flo kes
La st o ica od
nd r w l c ing
sl
i y
id l dl clo
a
n
e
or nd e
m fir
Fr ud e
ee sl
z id
St ing e
or r
W
m ain
at
su
e
r
A rb
irb or To ge
or ne rn
ne h ad
s az o
M ubs ard
ar
s
in ta n
ce
e
ha s
Sa z ar
nd ds
s
A tor
va m
la
n
D Vo
Ts ch
es
er lcan un e
a
tl
oc ic e mi
us ve
t s nt
w s
ar
m
un
d
Number of countries that archive
data for the specified hazard
Number of Countries Maintaining some sort of
Hazard Data Archives
•
140
120
100
80
40
20
0
•
60
•
Very few countries
maintain impact
databases
Data archived are
not standardised
90 % of NMHS
indicated need for
guidelines and
support in hazard
analysis, mapping
and statistics
(WMO DRR survey)
Role of National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction
Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources
multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration
Risk Identification
Risk Reduction
Risk Transfer
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting
and trend analysis
Exposed assets &
vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
PREPAREDNESS:
early warning systems
emergency planning
MITIGATION AND
PREVENTION:
Medium to long term sectoral
planning (e.g. zoning,
infrastructure, agriculture)
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed
insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Information and Knowledge Sharing
Education and training
Geological
Billions of USD per decade
Economic
losses related to
disasters are on
the way up
495
500
Hydrometeorological
450
400
345
350
300
250
200
160
150
100
50
0
103
88
4
56-65
14
11
24
66-75
47
76-85
86-95
96-05
decade
Millions of casualties per decade
While casualties
related to hydrometeorological
disasters are
decreasing
3
2.66
Hydrometeorological
2.5
2
1.73
1.5
1
0.39
0.5
0
0.67
0.65
0.05
Source: EM-DAT: The
OFDA/CRED International
Disaster Database
Geological
56-65
0.22
0.17
66-75
76-85
0.25
86-95
0.22
96-05
decade
In many countries, early warning systems are
not an integral part of disaster risk
management
National to local
governments
NATIONAL SERVICES
Meteorological
Hydrological
Geological
Marine
Health (etc.)…
hazard warning
Communities
at risk
What is an
Effective
EWS?
4
1
Community
Preparedness
National to local
governments
supported by
DRR plans, legislation
and coordination
mechanisms
5
2
COORDINATION AMONG
NATIONAL SERVICES
3
3
Meteorological
3
warnings
Hydrological
feedback
Geological
Marine
Health (etc.)
5
5
feedback
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets
Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources
multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration
Risk Identification
Risk Reduction
Risk Transfer
Hazard databases
Hazard statistics
Climate forecasting
and trend analysis
Exposed assets &
vulnerability
Risk analysis tools
PREPAREDNESS:
early warning systems
emergency planning
MITIGATION AND
PREVENTION:
Medium to long term sectoral
planning (e.g. zoning,
infrastructure, agriculture)
CAT insurance & bonds
Weather-indexed
insurance and derivatives
Other emerging products
Information and Knowledge Sharing
Education and training
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets
• Availability and accessibility of historical and realtime data
• Data quality assurance, filling data gaps,
homogenization and analysis
• Reliable and authoritative data for contract design and
settlement
• Forecasts for management of risk portfolio
• Technical support and service delivery
Challenges at different levels
 Building, strengthening and sustaining the
meteorological/climate observing networks,
data management and forecasting systems
are resource intensive and not on the radar
screen of many governments!
 Servicing Financial Risk Transfer markets is
a “new” field for Meteorological and
Hydrological Services!
Addressing these Challenges at
different levels

Need to make a business case for the need for National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services with their governments
(e.g., investments in meteorological capacities is an investment towards improved risk
managment and development)

Initiate systematic modenization/data rescue/capacity development of
Met Services with a sustainability plan

Raise awareness of National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services on emerging opportunities such as « weather-indexed
Insurance » (based on lessons learnt from demonstrated pilots)

Engage National Meteorological and Hydrlogical Services as Partners

Standardization of core meteorlogical/hydrological/climate products
Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance /
Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets
Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets
European Agricultural Risk
Weather Risk Management Markets (ART)
Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts
Wind Power Risk Contracts
Southeastern Europe
Disaster Risk management Project
CAT Bond Markets
post Hurricane Andrew
UK Flood
CAT Bond
& Southeastern and Central European
Risk Insurance Facility
Indian Agricultural Risk
Heating Degree
Day Contracts
Caribbean
Catastrophe
Risk Insurance
Facility
Drought Risk Management
in Ethiopia
Malawi Drought
Risk Management
Pacific Risk
Insurance Facility
Key Questions:
1) Can National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services meet these demands?
2) How to engage National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services in the DRR planning
and implementation to generate demand for
their services?
Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey
(2006)
Assessing Capacities, Gaps and Needs of National Meteorological
Services to support disaster risk management:
1. National policies and legislation
2. Infrastructure & institutional capacities in
monitoring, forecasting, communications
3. Hazard databases
4. Forecasting and Warning Capacities
5. Human resources (technical, managerial)
6. Operational partnerships with disaster risk
management stakeholders
Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)
Country Responses
44/48
92 %
18/22
82 %
25/34
74 %
10/12
83 %
24/52
54 %
14/19
74 %
139 /187 Countries responded
74% response rate
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html
Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)
Country Responses
Number of surveys
received
Total number of
countries
% Response
Global (WMO Members)
139
187
74%
Developing countries
85
137
62%
Least Developed countries
25
50
50%
Africa (RA I)
28
52
54%
Asia (RA II)
25
34
74%
South America (RA III)
10
12
83%
Central and North America (RA IV)
18
22
82%
South-West Pacific (RA V)
14
19
74%
Europe (RA VI)
44
48
92%
Scope
Country-Level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)
Under estimated
Category
Planning
&
Legislation
Infrastructure:
Observation
Forecasting
Telecom.
Data,
Analysis
and
Technical
Capacities
Partnerships
&
Concept of
Operations
%
countries
1
Need for development in all areas
12
2
Need for improvements in all areas
42
3
4
Self sufficient
Need for improvements in
these areas
Self sufficient
Could benefit from sharing of good practices practices and guidelines
26
20
Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!
WMO is Establishing Strategic Partnerships with Agencies
that Influence the National DRM Programmes and
Funding
Partners
World Bank
(GFDRR)
ISDR
UNDP
Agency Type
Coordination
Development
Coordination
Development
X
X
National DRR
Implementation
Funding
X
X
X
X
X
X
WFP, FAO
Humanitarian
Development
X
X
UN- OCHA
Humanitarian
X
X
IFRC
Humanitarian
X
X
Donors (EC, etc)
Donor
X
WMO is addressing this challenge through
national and regional projects with World Bank,
UNDP, ISDR and others
• Partnerships and ‘User-driven’service delivery
• Modernization of infrastructures (when needed)
– observing networks, forecasting and communication
• Data rescue and managment systems
• Technical training – Analysis and forecasting tools
and methodologies
Generating demand for Meteorological and Hydrological
Services with the goal to direct sustainable government funding
overtime for further improving and sustaining of these services
Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation
Projects (2007-2011)
Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation
Projects
(Europe)
DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)
DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries
(World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)
(Asia-Pacific)
End-to-end EWS Pilot Central
America: 3 countries (World
Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO,
NOAA, IFRC)
(North America
& Carribeans)
(South
America)
DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries
(World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)
(Asia)
Shanghai Mega City Multi Hazard-EWS demo
(Africa)
Sever weather/Flash Flood Guidance /storm watch technical
training (SADC)
2007
2008
2009
2010
End-to-end EWS
2011
World Bank, ISDR, WMO initiative in
South East Asia
Initiated in 2009
Goal: to strengthen institutional
cooperation and coordination
in
• Risk Management Capacities
• Hydro meteorological services
Lao
Vietnam
Cambodia
Philippines
Indonesia
Phase I: Fact finding assessment and development of national
and regional reports (Funded by GFDRR)
(underway)
Trends and patterns of hazard are
changing due to climate change
(IPCC)
Statistical analysis of historical data
is only first estimate . Needs for
forward looking information to
augment statistical hazard analysis
and mapping
Droughts
Climate variability and change
and their impacts are not uniform
geographically
Trends in heavy rainfall
Trends in Frost and Heat
Waves
Need for production
of local climate
information…
Highly Resource
Intensive!
(IPCC, 2007)
IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007
Global/Regional/National Cooperation
Framework For Provisions of Climate Services
Four Major Thrusts:
• Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectors
– Through partnerships (with UN, international and regional
agencies)
• Designation and coordination of network of global and
regional climate centers
– to faciliate provision of forecasting and analysis tools and
information to national centers
• Strengthen observation networks
• More targeted climate research
Global/Regional Network of WMO
Designated Climate Centers
ECMWF
Moscow
Exeter
Montreal
Beijing
Toulouse
Seoul
Tokyo
Washington
Lead Centre
for LRFMME
Gobal Producing Centres of
Long Range Forecasts (GPCs)
Pretoria
Melbourne
Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)
RCC Network Nodes (Pilot)
Lead Centre
for SVSLRF
SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts
LRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
CLW/CLPA/WCAS
World Climate Conference-3
Better climate information for a better future
Geneva, Switzerland
31 August–4 September
2009
Climate Risk management Project in Africa
WMO/World Bank Project in Africa
Funded by GFDRR
•
Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and
Uganda
• Objectives: Development of climate information
based on observations and latest climate tools and
forecasting technologies
• Sectors: Agriculture and water resource
management
• Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to
20 years:
• Partners
– National: NMHS, sectors representatives
– International/Regional: World Bank,
– Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK,
ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD)
• Status: Project was launch on June 21
• World Bank project manager: Amal Talbi-Jordan
Thank You
For more information please contact:
Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.
Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction
Programme
World Meteorological Organization
Tel. 41.22.730.8006
Fax. 41.22.730.8023
Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int
http://www.wmo.int/disasters
Increasing Risks under a
Changing Climate
Energy
Water Resource
Management
Food
security
Transport
Strong Wind
Intensity
Health
Coastal Marine Hazards
Tropical Cyclones
Hazards’ intensity
and frequency
are increasing
Industry
Urban areas
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Heatwaves
Frequency
Volnurability and
Exposure on the rise !
Need for
disaster risk
management
A comprehensive approach to DRR is
critical for reducing risks
Hyogo Framework
for Action
2005-2015
(World Conference on
Disaster Reduction)
WMO
Strategic Plan
2008-2015
(Top Level Objectives and
Five Strategic Thrusts)
Consultations with WMO governing
bodies, Regional and National
network and partners
WMO strategic priorities
in Disaster Risk Reduction