OECD
World
Forum
onon
Key
Indicators
OECD
World
Forum
Key
Indicators
Statistics,
Statistics,Knowledge
Knowledgeand
andPolicy
Policy
Palermo,
10-13
November
2004
Palermo,
10-13
November
2004
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
1
Use of Economic Indicators in
Business Decision-Making
Emilio Rossi
Managing Director
European Consulting
Global Insight
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
2
Globalisation  Greater Need for Indicators
 Corporations use
indicators in many
aspects of their
decision-making
process
 Corporations’ use of
data depends on many
factors
 Long-term planning
 Market planning
 Company size
 Company’s sector
 Company’s end-
markets
 Selection of foreign
investments
 Budget
 Treasury, etc.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
3
Features of Data and Indicators
Indicators MUST be:
 accessible
 timely
 trustworthy
 easy to use
 easy to understand
 scientifically sound…
 …but companies need order of magnitude
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
4
Structure of Country Risk Analysis
Overall
Country
Risk
•
Overall Index-Weighted Measurement
•
Application of Indicators Specific to
Company Segments
Investment
Modules
Country Risk Events
•
Economic: Domestic Demand, Currency,
Inflation, Interest Rates, Taxes, etc.
•
Non-Economic: Political Stability,
Education, Crime, etc.
Global Background Risks
•
Economic: Growth, Oil Prices,
Exchange Rates, etc.
•
Non-Economic: Wars, Terrorism,
etc.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
5
Risk and Reward Trade-off: Selected Countries
A composite measure of risk
facing companies selling to
consumer markets
High risk markets
offering poor growth
Risk vs. Reward comfort level?
70
Iran
Consumer Market Risk
(1=least risky)
60
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Russia
South Africa
50
Indonesia
S. Korea
40
Thailand
Germany
30
Lower risk, high
opportunity markets
Japan
Chile
India
UK
USA
20
10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Forecast Growth in Nominal Spending - Product XYZ
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
6
B2B & Consumer Goods Industries
Use Different Indicators
Macroeconomic Analysis
Analysis of Business
Activity
End-User Segmentation
Household
Demographics
Consumer Segmentation
B2B & Consumer Market Demand
Database integration, statistical analysis, and econometric modelling help to
capture the complex relationships between market characteristics and
market size.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
7
DuPont Market Index (DMI) A Step Beyond GDP
Sale Shares of Product XYZ by Segment
AR
BZ
CA
CH
EE
FR
GE
HK
ID
IN
IT
JA
KO
Etc.
Vehicles
Chems.l
Textiles
Life Scic
Paper
Etc……
Total
.15
.15
.1
.1
.15
.15
.15
.1
.1
.2
.15
.15
.2
.2
.11
.11
.05
.25
.09
.09
.09
.25
.15
.2
.09
.1
.25
.2
.26
.26
.21
.1
.23
.23
.23
.1
.15
.1
.23
.12
.05
.1
.02
.02
.05
.3
.09
.09
.09
.3
.25
.25
.09
.25
.28
.25
.03
.03
.05
.05
.16
.16
.16
.05
.05
.05
.16
.05
.02
.05
.15
.15
.05
.05
.1
.1
.1
.05
.1
.05
.1
.1
.05
.05
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Note: Numbers for illustrative purposes only
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
 DMI ties Indicators of endmarkets with the share of
sales by segment
 DMI allows to articulate
alternative scenarios
 The reliability of DMI
depends on how granular
the end-market breakdown
can be
8
Corporations Hunting for Data & Indicators
 Corporations often have to rely on Industry
Associations or Private Data Providers
 Own Sector  Use own Data - Level of detail unrealistic target
for Statistical Institutes
 End-market Sectors  the more granular the better
 Industry Association Data only for members, use different
classifications
 Private Data Providers affordable only for large companies
 Main Issues:




Non-OECD Countries
Geographical Disaggregation (Regional, City, etc.)
Service Sectors Breakdown
Specific Sectors (Construction, Packaging, Finance, Tourism,
etc.)
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
9
How to Make Business Count ?
Private-Public Partnership ?
 Should Statistical Institutes gather new data for
new Indicators ?
 Deeper Sector / Geographical Breakdown
 Leading indicators
 Company information
 Financial market data, etc.
 Technology may give access to as yet untapped
databases – private and public
 Chambers of Commerce
 Tax Files
 Stock Exchanges
 Industry Associations, etc.
OECD World Forum “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy”, Palermo, 10-13 November 2004
10