OECD World Forum on Key Indicators November 2004 “A Model to Benchmark Innovation Capacity – the Need for Global Indicators” Jørgen Rosted Director, FORA – Centre for Economic and Business Research, Denmark New Growth pattern > The OECD-study “New Economy – beyond the hype” illustrated differences in growth patterns among OECD countries and identified 4 micro-drivers of growth: > > > > Human resources Knowledge building and knowledge sharing Information and communications technology Entrepreneurship Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Growth follow-up project > Ministers asked OECD to follow-up on the growth study using benchmarking and peer-reviews to: > Evaluate the importance of the micro-drivers > Investigate policy implications Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk The new policy framework Specific framework conditions Benchmarking Benchmarking analysis analysis Clusters Business framework Conditions Business framework conditions Micro-drivers ofgrowth growth Micro-drivers of Fundamentals Macro economy Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Cluster analysis A benchmark model to evaluate the importance of different business environments in a global knowledge economy Innovation Management and organization Knowledge building & Knowledge sharing Entrepreneurship Information and communication technology Human resources Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk An 8-step approach to systematic benchmarking of micro-drivers of growth > Define good performance and select performance indicators > Identify top-performing countries (check robustness) > Test the interactions among the drivers and their links to MFP growth > Define relevant policy areas and select indicators (check robustness) > Test for correlation between performance and policies Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk An 8-step approach to systematic benchmarking of micro-drivers of growth > The critical areas of the framework conditions are identified for each micro-drivers of growth > Weak points in national framework conditions are identified > Improve weak points by using peer review to learn from policies in best performers Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk OECD-report > The main Committees in the OECD directorate for Science, Technology and Industry (DSTI) have been working on “Micro-policies for Productivity and Growth” since 2001 > Committee on Industry and Business Environment (CIBE) coordinats the work > The report will be released in spring 2005 Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Conclusions > Having the fundamentals and the macro-structure right is not enough > Countries also need to have the micro-structure right and only a few OECD countries have that > The OECD report will contain specific policy recommendation for each micro-driver Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk The Danish benchmark work builds on the OECD project > Denmark has actively supported the work and applied the results in Denmark > Reports on all four drivers of growth have been published – each identifying key challenges for Denmark Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Performance > 6-10 indicators are used to measure performance for each of the four micro-drivers > The micro-drivers interact and are correlated with multi-factor productivity (MFP) Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Correlation between performance and MFP growth Pick-up in MFP growth from the 1980s to 1990s 1,00 Ireland Australia Canada Norway New Zealand Denmark 0,50 Finland Sweden United States 0,00 -0,50 Belgium Italy Germany Netherlands France -1,00 Japan United Kingdom Spain -1,50 -2,00 -1,50 -1,00 -0,50 0,00 0,50 Simple average of all performance indicators Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk 1,00 1,50 Framework conditions > 8-16 policy areas are examined for each of the four micro-drivers > 30-55 indicators are used to measure the policy areas for each micro-driver Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Correlation between policy and performance 100 Simple average of all performance indicators 90 80 USA SWE 70 FIN CHE CAN AUS 60 GER JPN NOR AUT NED NZL KOR 50 CZE BEL FRA DEN IRE GBR 40 ESP POL HUN TUR 30 20 ITA POR Correlation = 0,887 GRC 10 MEX 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Simple average of all policy indicators Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Spiderweb – Human ressources Expediture on education 100 80 Management skills 60 Incentives for education 40 20 0 Input to flexible organisations Magnitude and relevance of lifelong learning Magnitude and quality of basic education Magnitude and relevance of tertiary education Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Danish report > A report summarizing the work in Denmark – The Innovation Monitor – is available at www.foranet.dk Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk The work required an indicator sytem > Measuring performance and framework conditions is a difficult task > To build the indicator system we collected data from both official statistical offices, international organisations and survey data from private sources > This gave us an indicator system specially designed to analyse micro-drivers Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Data coverage for performance indicators Micro-driver Good coverage Partly coverage Entrepreneurship Information & communications technology (ICT) Innovation - science and Technology Human resources Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Weak or no coverage ● ● ● ● Data coverage for entrepreneurship Policy area Good coverage Administrative burdens ● Regulations ● Taxes ● Partly coverage Start-up Capital ● Secondary stock markets/ alternative exist possibilities ● Culture ● Weak or no coverage Government support ● Entrepreneurship infrastructure ● Education ● Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Data coverage for ICT Policy area Good coverage ICT Infrastructure ● Prices on communication ● Access to ICT in education ● Advanced ICT competences ● Partly coverage Basic e-government ● ICT competences among consumers ● Employees’ ICT competences ● Weak or no coverage Advanced e-government ● Data security ● Other legislation that indirectly affects ICT use ● Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Data coverage for science and technology Policy area Good coverage Public investment in R&D ● Quality of research ● Subsidies and tax incentives ● Access to venture capital ● Partly coverage Cooperation in R&D ● Commercialization of research ● Highly educated workers ● Customers and suppliers ● Competition policy ● Weak or no Coverage Relevance of research ● Access to technology ● Access to competencies ● Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Data coverage for human capital Policy area Good coverage Expenditure on education ● Scope and quality of basic education ● Partly coverage Incentives for education ● Scope and relevance of tertiary education ● Weak or no coverage Scope and relevance of lifelong learning ● Flexible organisation ● Management skills ● Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk Indicator systems > Hundreds of global indicator systems are build for different purposes > There will be synergies and therefore productivity gains in closer collaboration > How could productivity gains be harvest? > The role of OECD? Copyright 2004 © FORA, Langelinie Allé 17, 2100 Kbh Ø - www.foranet.dk