Hypoxia-What Is It, Do We Affect It, And How Might Our Future Affect It? Rick Cruse Hypoxia – What is it? Hypoxia – What it is not? Hypoxia – What is it? An area of low dissolved oxygen concentrations that cannot support marine life. Typically O2 < 2 ppm Hypoxia – Where does it occur? Hypoxia – Where does it occur? Hypoxia – Why does it occur? Freshwater and saltwater stratify Hypoxia – Why does it occur? Algae bloom in freshwater Algae settle to bottom Algae decomposition consumes O2 Hypoxia – Where (at what depth) does it occur? www.gulfhypoxia.net/Research/ Hypoxia – How large an area? x http://www.epa.gov/gmpo/pdf/2007-hypoxia-pred-web-5.pdf Turner and Rabalais, 2007 X – size in 2008 Hypoxia - Why does it occur? Hypoxia – Why does it occur? Algae Yield Algae Yield and N fertilization Hypoxia – Is nutrient flux constant? co.water.usgs.gov Hypoxia – Why Iowa connection? NO3-N Concentration (mg/L) NO3-N Concentration in the Raccoon River at Des Moines 20.00 18.00 16.00 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Annual Max Annual Mean 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 Data provided by Chris Jones Des Moines Water Works Nitrate load in Raccoon River jumps, climate change? Hypoxia – Why Iowa connection? First Quarter NO3-N Load, Raccoon River at Des Moines 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1998 tons Nitrogen Raccoon River 1st Quarter Loads-Revised Data provided by Chris Jones Des Moines Water Works Hypoxia – Why Iowa connection? 20 – 25 lb/A www.umces.edu/President/hypoxia.htm Hypoxia – Why Iowa connection? Look to the Future Planted area: Corn, wheat, and soybeans Million acres 100 90 Corn 80 Soybeans 70 60 Wheat 50 40 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to Projections 2016, February 2007. USDA Agricultural to Economic Research Service, USDA. 2010 2015 2016 D. R. Keeney Corn/Soybean and Perennial Nitrate-N Concentrations in Tile Drain Tile drainage system U of MN - Lamberton Gyles Randall, 2003 25 20 15 10 mg/L Midpoint of range 5 0 Corn/Bean Perennials D. R. Keeney Tom Kaspar Rye after corn silage Tom Kaspar Cumulative annual nitrate-N load of drainage water for 2002-2005 90 81.1 Annual nitrate-N load (kg/ha) 80 Control Rye Cover Crop 70 60 50.8 47.2 50 40.4 40 30 20 34.4 33.9 23.0 19.8 11.1 11.2 10 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 Kaspar et al., JEQ 36:1503-1511 Avg. Iowa Daily Erosion Project Estimates daily soil erosion, runoff and soil moisture for the state of Iowa Daily estimations since 2002 Published in Jan/Feb 2006 Journal of the Soil and Water Conservation Society Served on the web at http://wepp.mesonet.agron.iastate.edu Parameterizes WEPP erosion model with radar rainfall, climate stations, and NRI Simulated crops Eight scenarios based on ISU research Rotation Tillage Residue Removal Cover Crop Abbreviation NRI NRI No No NRI Corn/Soy Min-till No No CS-MT Cont. Corn Min-till Yes No CC-MTRR Corn/Soy No-till No No CS-NT Cont. Corn No-till No No CC-NT Cont. Corn No-till Yes No CC-NTRR Cont. Corn No-till Yes Yes CC-NTRRCC Switchgrass No-till Yes No Sw-NTRR NEXRAD – Aug 22, 2007 Statewide mean precipitation: 1.56 in. Switchgrass – NT, RR Sw-NTRR CC-NT CS-NT CC-NTRR CC-NTRRCC NRI CS-MT CC-MTRR Cont. Corn – NT Sw-NTRR CC-NT CS-NT CC-NTRR CC-NTRRCC NRI CS-MT CC-MTRR Corn/Soybean – NT Sw-NTRR CC-NT CS-NT CC-NTRR CC-NTRRCC NRI CS-MT CC-MTRR Cont. Corn – NT, RR Sw-NTRR CC-NT CS-NT CC-NTRR CC-NTRRCC NRI CS-MT CC-MTRR Cont. Corn – NT, RR, CC Sw-NTRR CC-NT CS-NT CC-NTRR CC-NTRRCC NRI CS-MT CC-MTRR NRI Projected Rotation Sw-NTRR CC-NT CS-NT CC-NTRR CC-NTRRCC NRI CS-MT CC-MTRR Corn/Soy - MT Sw-NTRR CC-NT CS-NT CC-NTRR CC-NTRRCC NRI CS-MT CC-MTRR Cont. Corn - MTRR Sw-NTRR CC-NT CS-NT CC-NTRR CC-NTRRCC NRI CS-MT CC-MTRR Event Summary Management 8/22/2007 Mean Loss (tons/acre) 8/22/2007 Mean Runoff (in) Sw-NTRR 0.044 0.657 CC-NT 0.113 0.662 CS-NT 0.184 0.651 CC-NTRR 0.230 0.649 CC-NTRRCC 0.232 0.650 NRI 0.320 0.640 CS-MT 0.406 0.647 CC-MTRR 0.458 0.646 Concluding Thought OR