Historical
Geography
of the
Cold War
Zoltán Grossman,
The Evergreen
State College,
Olympia, Wash.
Marxism
• Karl Marx’s class analysis
of Germany, Britain
• Working-class power
– “Dictatorship of Proletariat”
– “People’s Democracy”
• First need capitalism/
industry to create workers
• Socialism stage to Communism
Russian
Marxism
Russia had
mainly peasantry
- Bolsheviks (Majority radicals)
– Mensheviks (Minority moderates)
– Also anarchists, other social revolutionaries
Internationalism
before WW I
• European socialists vs.
“War of the Bosses”
• But when war came,
moderates voted for it
• Radicals against war
(incl. Bolsheviks)
World War I
(1914-18)
• Central Powers
– Germany, AustriaHungary, Bulgaria,
Ottoman Turkey
• Allied Powers
– Britain, France, Russia,
Italy, U.S., Canada
• War for democracy?
– Russia, Central Powers
dictatorships
Russia in WWI
• St. Petersburg (capital)
renamed Petrograd
• Losing on Eastern Front
• Immense ruin, hardship
• Bolsheviks looked
like prophets
REVOLUTION, 1917
• Czar Nicholas II
deposed in February;
Provisional Gov’t
• Soviets (Councils) of
workers, soldiers,
peasants govern
themselves
"The Russian revolution
simmered for years and
suddenly erupted when th
serfs finally realised that the
Czar and the Tsar were the
same person."
–Woody Allen
• Bolshevik coup in
October in name of
Soviets
• Surrender in west to
Germans, 1918
Russia after WWI
• Revolutions
collapse in
Germany, Hungary
• Peasants like breakup of
aristocratic holdings, but want
to keep their own private land
• Bolshevik (Communist) Party
amasses centralized power,
not Soviets
Civil War (Reds vs. Whites), 1918-21
• Brits, French, Poles,
Americans, Japanese
intervene for Whites
• Russia under siege
• Railroads, Trotsky’s
“War Communism”
brutality win it for Reds
Vladimir Lenin
era, 1917-24
• Workers and peasants together
(Marxism-Leninism)
• Faced “Socialism in One Country”
• Died 1924; then 3-year power struggle
– Petrograd renamed Leningrad
Eastern Europe after WWI
Finland
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Czechoslovakia
Austria
Hungary
Yugoslavia
Romania gains
Bessarabia
(Moldova)
Josef Stalin
era, 1927-53
• Centralism of
Czarist Russia
• Ruthless murder
of dissidents;
purges of leaders
• Millions killed
Stalinist “State Socialism”
• Central planning of
“Command Economy”
• Heavy industrialization
to catch up to West
• Forced collectivization
of private farmlands
• Discredited socialism as
led by The People
WW II, 1939-41
• Molotov-Ribbentrop
Pact with Germany
• Annexed eastern Poland, Baltics,
Bessarabia (Moldavia)
• Invaded Finland (Winter War)
• Nazis invade USSR, June 1941
• Stalin allies with Brits, U.S.
WW II, 1941-45
• Germans besieged
Leningrad through winter
• Failed to seize Moscow
(government moved east)
• Halted at Stalingrad,
before Caspian Sea
• 20 million Soviets dead,
country devastated
USSR after WWII
(Re)annexed territory
Baltics, Moldavia, E. Poland.
Took E. Prussia (Kaliningrad)
Troops stay
East Germany, Poland,
Czechoslovakia, Hungary,
Romania, Bulgaria
Independent Communist
“partisan” states
Yugoslavia, Albania,
China (1949)
Poland, 1945
USSR annexes
eastern Poland,
which takes
eastern Germany
Iron
Curtain
1946-89
• Churchill speech, 1946:
“From Stettin in the Baltic to
Trieste in the Adriatic”
• Divided West from
Central & Easterm
Communist states
• (West) Berlin Airlift 1948
Soviet Bloc
(Yugoslavia, Albania Communist but not Soviet)
NATO vs. Warsaw Pact
FRG
(West Germany)
in NATO, 1954
Warsaw Pact
formed 1955,
incl. GDR
(East Germany)
NATO-Soviet
nuclear race
View of Communist “Red Bloc” during Cold War
Lumping failed to recognize
differences among Communists,
or local causes of conflict
(Vietnam War 1960s)
Containment Theory
Extension of Mackinder’s
Heartland Theory
Isolation of Soviets after 1917
George Kennan (State Dep’t)
resurrects after WWII
Encircle USSR with military
bases, treaties, alliances
Containment Theory
Cold War
Massive refugee
Crisis, poverty
Marshall Plan
for recovery in West
Western military
“containment”
Proxy wars
in Greece, etc.
Nikita Khrushchev, 1953-64
• Russian from Ukraine
• “Destalinization”: less repressive?
• Consumer goods emphasis
• “Virgin Lands” settlement
• Visited, confronted U.S. but
backed down in Berlin, Cuba
Revolts in
Central Europe
• East Germany, 1953
• Hungary, 1956
Prague Spring 1968
• Broad-based opposition
from right & left
(workers, students, socialists,
liberals, nationalists, church)
Berlin Wall, 1961
• US-USSR proxy“hot wars”
Third World
• Struggles mainly nationalist,
not Communist
Cuba
• Third World competed for aid
until Cold War ended
• East-West competition in culture
Vietnam
Star Trek
Third World
Soviets back “national liberation” in
Cuba, Vietnam, Angola, South Africa,
Chile, Nicaragua, etc.
East German posters
NATO and Warsaw Pact
NATO not all democratic
(Portugal, Spain, Greece, Turkey)
Soviets prevent democratization
Greece 1967
East & West dissidents sometimes
make common cause (Vietnam, nukes):
“Welcome to Czechago” 1968
U.S. saw Soviets as “totalitarian,”
rightist dictators as “authoritarian”
Czechoslovakia 1968
“Politics: The Most Dangerous Sport”
• Continued imprisonment
of dissidents
(Soviet abuse of psychiatry)
• Fear of secret police
(informing and files)
• Resistance and ridicule
(secret police jokes,
keeping past alive)
Leonid Brezhnev, 1964-82
• Stalin & Khrushchev policies
– Economic stagnancy
– Military superpower
• Brezhnev Doctrine: invaded
Czechoslovakia, 1968
Stop “Socialism with a human face”
• Détente with U.S., 1972
• Invaded Afghanistan, 1979
Détente &
China Rivalry
Mao felt Moscow
sold out Communism
Soviet fear of Chinese
1969 border clash
Competed in Third World,
compete for US support
Nixon visits Moscow for Détente,
but also plays “China Card”
against Moscow, 1972
George Orwell’s 1984
“Oceania” (NATO)
“Eurasia” (USSR)
“Eastasia” (China)
“On the sixth day of Hate Week… it had been announced that Oceania
was not after all at war with Eurasia. Oceania was at war with Eastasia.
Eurasia was an ally. There was, of course, no admission that any
change had taken place. Merely it became known, with extreme
suddenness and everywhere at once, that Eastasia and not Eurasia was
the enemy…. Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.”
WW III possible flashpoints
West Germany/West Berlin
(1948, 1961)
Yugoslavia (1946, 1980s)
Cuba (1961, 1962)
Iran (1946, 1980)
Fears of Soviet invasion?
Military budgets
Both economies reliant on
military-industrial complex
Europeans united against
Euromissiles, 1979-83
U.S. forced Soviets
to keep up? (Star Wars 1983).
Greenham Common UK
women’s peace camp
Détente: Helsinki Accords, 1975
VII. Respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms,
including the freedom of thought, conscience, religion or belief
VIII. Equal rights and self-determination of peoples
Soviet Bloc Dissidents in Exile
Szelényi
(Hungary)
Medvedev
(USSR)
Bahro
(East Germany)
Polish Solidarity, 1980-81
• Poles revolted 1956, 1968, 1970
– Workers & students not yet united
– Each revolt wins looser controls
• Poland looser than others, 1970s
– Hungary also “Goulash Communist”
– Polish Pope, 1978
• Workers strikes spread
from Gdansk, 1980
• Polish military crackdown, 1981
Soviet war in Afghanistan, 1979-89
• Underestimated Muslim
mujahadin rebels
• Bogged down like Vietnam
• Stinger missiles shot
down helicopters
Soviet war in Afghanistan, 1979-89
• Withdrew 1989
• Pro-Soviet regime
ousted 1992
• Bitter Afghantsy
(veterans)
Soviet military overextended
beyond Russian Empire
Too far to
(Catholic) West
Unraveled in
Poland, Baltics
Too far to East
Diverted
by China
Too far to
(Muslim) South
Lost in Afghanistan
Last days of USSR • Yuri Andropov
(ex-KGB), 1982-84
• War fears, spending on
“Euromissile” race
• Konstantin Chernenko
(Brezhnev clone), 1984-85
• Mikhail Gorbachev
(glasnost) 1985-91
Historical Geography
of Post-Soviet Era
Zoltán Grossman,
The Evergreen
State College,
Olympia, Wash.
Choices in late 1980s
Political democracy,
then reform economy
– Open up society to reform it
– U.S. thought “totalitarian”
system not reformable
Economic reform,
then political democracy
–Shock the economy,
then (maybe) open up
–Models of Chile, China
Mikhail Gorbachev, 1985-91
• Democracy,
then reform
• Socialism with
a human face
• Openness
• Restructuring
Glasnost (Openness)
• End to secrecy
– After Chernobyl 1986
• Freedom to
assemble, speak, etc.
• Open discussion of problems
Glasnost: Unanticipated effects
• Unleashed nationalisms
• Decentralization spreads
conflict to local scale
• No one calls shots;
little democratic experience
Perestroika (Restructuring)
Political:
Reduce Party control
Economic:
Privatize non-industrial
economy
Perestroika: Unanticipated effects
• Reluctance to give up security
• Mistrust competition, inequality
• Economic output lower,
food shortages/lines
Gorbachev Era
• Reversed “Brezhnev
Doctrine” in E. Europe
• Warsaw Pact allies more
hard-line than Moscow
• Hard-liners tested him
– Lithuania, Georgia,
Azerbaijan massacres
East Germans: “Gorby Help Us”
Poland & Hungary
• Western-oriented
• Soured on socialism
after repression
– Hungary 1956
– Poland 1970 & 1981
• Regimes liberalized
after rebellions crushed
Better-off first to revolt
Poland, Hungary in Warsaw Pact
Baltic States in USSR
Slovenia, Croatia in Yugoslavia
Czech Rep. in Czechoslovakia
State prevented full development;
resented supporting poorer areas
Western TV signals
• Finnish TV in Estonia
• W. German TV in GDR,
Czech., Poland
• Austrian TV in Hungary
TV stations
as battlegrounds
Ostankino tower clashes,
Moscow, 1991, 1993
Lithuania
massacre 1990
Romanian Revolution 1989
U.S. bombs Serbian TV
in Belgrade 1999
Poland 1989
• Solidarity strikes,
peasant party force election
• 1st non-Communist
prime minister appointed;
Lech Walesa later pres.
Hungary 1989
• Party drops power monopoly
• Declares republic, opens
discussion of 1956
• Opens western border
East Germany
(GDR) 1989
• “Tourists” cross Hungarian
border to Austria (brain drain)
• Huge leftist youth rallies spread
from Leipzig
• Fear of Stasi secret police lost
• Gorbachev prevents crackdown
Berlin Wall
• Minister on TV ends
1989 travel restrictions
• Berlin Wall falls overnight
after 28 years
• GDR dissolves 1990,
becomes FRG’s poor region
Post-Soviet paths, 1989
• “Reformed” Communist parties
• Pro-West consumer capitalism
• “Third Way”: Democratic socialism / Greens
• Right-wing ethnic nationalism
Czechoslovakia 1989 • Student protests
repressed
• “Velvet Revolution”
returns leaders from
1968 Prague Spring
• Dissident writer
Vaclav Havel president
Czechoslovakia
ends 1993
• Czech Rep. more developed than Slovakia
• Czechs want quick NATO, EU entry
• “Velvet Divorce” of leaders, not people
Bulgaria 1989
• Russians were popular in
Slav Orthodox country
• Communists win 1990
election; lose 1991
• Economic reforms difficult
Romanian Revolution 1989
• Dictator Ceaucescu
wooed West
• Autocratic “personality
cult,” Securitate
secret police
• Military revolt executed
him Dec. 25,
poverty remained
Baltics
1990
• Lithuania declares
full independence
• Soviet crackdown
• Latvia, Estonia
declare sovereignty
(own laws supreme)
Boris Yeltsin,
1991-99
• Party official from Urals; resigned 1990
• Modernizer; Russian Federation Pres. 1991
• Russia needs own identity apart from USSR,
declares republic laws supreme
August 1991 Coup
• Day before Union of
Sovereign States declared
• Gorbachev under arrest
by KGB; VP in power
• Moscow KGB declined
to arrest Yeltsin (on tank)
• Gorbachev rescued,
coup collapses
Coup Aftermath
• Yeltsin undercut
Gorbachev as main leader
• Baltics independence
recognized in Sept.
• Other republics start to
declare as “sovereign”
December 1991 Endgame
• Russia, Ukraine, Belarus independent
• Declare “Commonwealth of Independent States”
• 8 independent republics join CIS
(Georgia later under pressure)
• Gorbachev resigns, Soviet flag lowered Dec. 25
Russia successor
state to USSR
Aftermath
• Ukraine, Belarus,
Kazakhstan disarm nukes
• Economic, military
ties disrupted
between republics
• Rise of “mafia”
economy, crime
“Shock therapy”
• Close command industries
•Reduce or end subsidies
• Privatize industrial economy
•High unemployment,
inflation, inequality
Post-Communists, 1990s
• Elected in Poland, Hungary, Lithuania!
• Former CP became nouveau riche
• Slowing down shock therapy?
• Seen as capitalist/modern,
not nationalist, social conservative
Vladimir Putin, 2000-?
• Underestimated as
Yeltsin puppet
• Ex-KGB in Germany;
knows West well
• Yet also placates
“Eurasians,”
Soviet memories
Russia’s geopolitical fears revisited, 2000s
Threat
from West
NATO expansion,
U.S. missile
defense
Threat
from East
Resurgent
China
Threat from South
Chechen nationalism,
Islamist fundamentalism
Chechnya
• Muslim region of Russia
declared independence; beat
Russians in 1990, 1994-96
• Putin fears Kosovo precedent;
flattens Grozny, 2000
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 2011
1999
1999
1999
Kosovo
military
zones
NATO Expansion
1999 members:
Poland
Czech Rep.
Hungary
2004 members:
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Romania
Bulgaria
2009 members:
Croatia
Albania
In future?:
Bosnia
Montenegro
Macedonia
Ukraine?
Georgia?
Russian fears rekindled
Historic buffer vs. West shrunk
- Expanded NATO border on Russia
Kaliningrad enclave cut off by NATO
NATO intervenes vs. Serbs in ex-Yugo.
-Russians balance force in Kosovo
U.S. troops in Hungary, Bosnia, Kosovo
Iraq Crisis, 2003
Russia sides with Germany, France, Belgium
- Mackinder theory
- Like brief Soviet alliance with France, 1935-39
Central European NATO members side with U.S.
-Polish troops head up sector, others send non-combat
- Polls show majority public opposition (all but Romania)
Historic realignment underway?
- Independent Western Europe with Russia
- U.S. sphere of influence in UK, Central Europe;
Donald Rumsfeld: New Europe (central) vs. Old Europe
Government Positions on Iraq War, 2004
Blue: Supported war (most withdrew 2005) Green: Did not oppose war
Red: Opposed war
Gray: Neutral
In Central
Europe
polls, only
Romanians
backed their
government’s
pro-Iraq War
position
New U.S. military bases
Base clusters left over from
recent wars creating a
U.S. “sphere of influence”
between Europe, Russia
and East Asia?
1. Gulf War,
1991
2. Yugoslav Wars,
1995-99
3. Afghan War,
2001
4. Iraq War,
2003
Russian preferences
Independent European military force
-Taking over ex-Yugo. peacekeeping
“Decoupling” of U.S., Western Europe
(Henry Kissinger’s fear)
Or Russia becoming full NATO member
Reassurance for Putin?
Partnership for Peace
Future NATO membership for Russia, CIS?
U.S.-Russian oil alliance vs. OPEC
Allow free hand in Chechnya, Georgia
The Road to Nowhere
(Michael Ignatieff, 1994)
Croatian state (1992) vs.
Krajina Serb minority, Yugoslav Army