SOVIET & RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS
Mackinder’s Heartland Theory
Drawn from Ratzel’s geographic view of state as organism
Mackinder’s Heartland Theory
Whoever controls “Heartland”
(Pivot Area) can control world
The “Great Game” between
Britain, Russia, 1800s-1900s
Maritime powers need control
in “Rimland” (Inner Crescent),
esp. Middle East
Prevent Russo-German alliance
or Russian control of Germany
Containment Theory
Extension of Mackinder
Isolation of Soviets after 1917
George Kennan (State Dep’t)
resurrects after WWII
Encircle USSR with military
bases, treaties, alliances
Containment Theory
View of Communist “Red Bloc” during Cold War
Lumping failed to recognize
differences among Communists,
or local causes of conflict
(Vietnam War 1960s)
NATO and Warsaw Pact, 1945-89
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NATO and Warsaw Pact
NATO not all democratic
(Portugal, Spain, Greece, Turkey)
Greece 1968
Brezhnev Doctrine prevents
democratization in East
U.S. saw Soviets as “totalitarian,”
rightist dictators as “authoritarian”
Czechoslovakia 1968
WW III possible flashpoints
West Germany/West Berlin
(1948, 1961)
Yugoslavia (1946, 1980s)
Cuba (1961, 1962)
Iran (1946, 1980)
Fears of Soviet invasion?
Military budgets
Both economies reliant on
military-industrial complex
U.S. forced Soviets
to keep up? (Star Wars 1983).
Military spending still
up since Cold War
National Missile Defense
as US nuclear umbrella
• US-USSR indirect “hot wars”
Third World
• Struggles mainly nationalist not
Communist
Cuba
• Third World competed for aid
until Cold War ended
• East-West competition in culture
Vietnam
Star Trek
Third World
Soviets pro-”liberation” in Cuba,
Vietnam, Angola, South Africa, Chile,
Nicaragua, Palestine, etc.
East German posters
China Rivalry
Mao felt Khrushchev
sold out Communism
Competed in Third World
Cultural Revolution in
China, 1960s
China Rivalry
Historic Chinese
Claims in Siberia
Border clashes, 1969
Nearly nuclear war
China Card, 1972
Nixon visits Moscow,
Détente started
Nixon visits China
as counterweight
Russian fear of West,
East teaming up
Also saw West as
protection from China
George Orwell’s 1984
“Oceania” (NATO)
“Eurasia” (USSR)
“Eastasia” (China)
On the sixth day of Hate Week, after the processions, the
speeches, the shouting, the singing, the banners… the
rolling of drums and squealing of trumpets, the tramp of
marching feet, the grinding of the caterpillars of tanks,
the roar of massed planes, the booming of guns… at just
this moment it had been announced that Oceania was
not after all at war with Eurasia. Oceania was at war with
Eastasia. Eurasia was an ally. There was, of course, no
admission that any change had taken place. Merely it
became known, with extreme suddenness and
everywhere at once, that Eastasia and not Eurasia was the
enemy…. Oceania was at war with Eastasia: Oceania had
always been at war with Eastasia.
Soviet military overextended
beyond Russian Empire
Too far to
(Catholic) West
Unraveled in
Poland, Baltics
Too far to East
Diverted
by China
Too far to
(Muslim) South
Lost in Afghanistan
Breakup of Soviet Union into 15 states, 1991
Atlanticists vs. Eurasianists
(both want Russia as great power)
Atlanticists
(Modernizers)
Eurasianists
(Slavophiles)
Lean to West
Mistrust West
Russia European
Unique E-W bridge
Statist
Nationalist
Russia’s geopolitical fears revisited
Threat from West
NATO expansion,
U.S. missile defense
Threat
from East
Resurgent
China
Threat from South
Muslim fundamentalism
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 2004
1999
1999
1999
Kosovo
military
zones
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 2004
New members:
Slovakia
Estonia
Slovenia
Not yet:
Latvia
Lithuania
Romania
Bulgaria
Croatia
Macedonia
Albania
Russian fears rekindled
Historic buffer vs. West shrunk
- Expanded NATO border on Russia
Kaliningrad enclave cut off by NATO
NATO intervenes vs. Serbs in ex-Yugo.
-Russians balance force in Kosovo
U.S. troops in Hungary, Bosnia, Kosovo
Iraq Crisis, 2003
Russia sides with Germany, France, Belgium
- Mackinder theory
- Like brief Soviet alliance with France, 1935-39
Eastern European NATO members side with U.S.
-Polish troops head up sector, others send non-combat
- Polls show majority public opposition (all but Romania)
Historic realignment underway?
- Independent Western Europe with Russia
- U.S. sphere of influence in UK, East-Central Europe
Government Positions on Iraq War, 2004
Blue: Supported war (some withdrew 2005) Green: Did not oppose war
Red: Opposed war
Gray: Neutral
In E. Europe
polls, only
Romanians
backed their
government’s
pro-war
position
New U.S. military bases
Base clusters left over from
recent wars creating a
U.S. “sphere of influence”
between Europe, Russia
and East Asia?
1. Gulf War,
1991
2. Yugoslav Wars,
1995-99
3. Afghan War,
2001
4. Iraq War,
2003
Russian preferences
Independent European military force
-Taking over ex-Yugo. peacekeeping
“Decoupling” of U.S., Western Europe
Or Russia becoming full NATO member
Reassurance for Putin?
Partnership for Peace
Future NATO membership for Russia, CIS?
U.S.-Russian oil alliance vs. OPEC
Allow free hand in Chechnya, Georgia
Russian intervention in Caucasus region
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Caspian
Basin
oil and gas
pipelines
Routes through
Russia, Turkey, Iran,
China, Afghanistan
Oil/gas pipeline routes
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Putin vs. Muslims
Crushed Muslim secession in
Chechnya, curbed in Tatarstan
Fought Muslim rebels
in Uzbek., Tajik.
Allowed U.S. troops in
Central Asia, Georgia after 9/11
Continued verbal support for
Iraqi, Palestinian people
Putin and East Asia
Visited China, placated Eurasianists
China better economy, huge market
1/4 million Chinese illegals in Siberia
Asian companies in Siberia
Japan talks over trade, Kuril Is. claims
How Many Americans View the World
Cartoon:
Bush’s View
of the World
Problem:
some former
allies later
seen as “evil”
“Clash of Civilizations” theory
Samuel Huntington theory of Western, Islamic,
Slavic, etc. “blocs” in conflict with each other.
“Clash of Civilizations” theory
Fails to recognize
differences within each “bloc.”
Most sources of conflict are local
(often ethnic), not religious.
Often blames the victim
for the conflict (Chechens, etc).
West shares responsibility
(military aid arms both sides)
“Push” of USSR, “Pull” of EU
European
Union
Began as
European
Economic
Community
(EEC), 1957.
EU decision
1988;
Implemented
1994
euro
European
Union
2007:
Romania
10 new members join, 2004
Estonia
Slovakia
Latvia
Hungary
Lithuania
Slovenia
Poland
Cyprus
Czech Rep.
Malta
Bulgaria
Turkey ???
A “Blue Curtain”?
Catholic/Protestant West
Orthodox/Muslim East
Who will be welcome
in the EU “club”?
Orthodox Greece in EU
A “Blue Curtain”?
Eastern Europe as
a “Mexico” for West?
Less developed economy;
Reserve for labor?
Border
towers
moved
from
Hungary
to Austria
Religious minorities
Orthodox stuck in West:
Serbs in Croatia (expelled)
Russians in Kaliningrad
Russians in Baltic States
Religious minorities
Catholics stuck in East:
Croats in Bosnia
Hungarians in Romania
“Uniates” in western Ukraine
Poles in Ukraine/Belarus
Also Lutheran Karelian Finns in Russia