Come Back to the Sea
JFK ““We all came from
the sea,”
• “Carnival should have spent
$8 million on retrofitting its
ships to reduce its significant
contribution to ocean
pollution rather than on a
Super Bowl ad. How can
passengers ‘come back to a
sea’ that is polluted?”
Friends of the Earth
• “1.2 million dogs are euthanized in shelters in
the United States each year while another 1.2
million dogs are hit and killed by cars on
America's roads. By comparison, wolves are a
virtually non-existent threat to our furry canine
friends, only in very rare instances attacking
dogs if they feel threatened or perceive them as
competitors. The real threat to both dogs and
wolves, as these numbers show and as
Budweiser's cynical attempt to boost sales
indicates, is people. Purposefully demonizing
an animal that is part of America's natural
heritage is no way to sell beer."
• PETA
✔ @peta
• Follow
• Wolves belong in the WILD, NOT in
#Budweiser #SuperBowl commercials.
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7LbPdzYrrE
Political Window
• President Obama’s
budget rests on tax
increases and an
immigration overhaul
that have little chance
in Congress, but
proposals on
sequestration and the
highway trust fund
could take root. NYT,
Feb 3, 2015
Evolution
Punctuated
Equilibrium
Policy Equilibrium
•
•
•
•
Local
Market
Win win
Integration of
science and
policy
“CALFED is likely the most ambitious
experiment in collaborative environmental
policy and adaptive management the world
has seen to date.”
• 60% of water goes
through CA Bay Delta
• California's State
Water Project
• 2/3rds of CA gets
H2O (30 million)
• 6 million acres of
farmland
• “Path dependence has to mean, if it is to mean anything,
that once a country or region has started down a track,
the costs of reversal are very high. There will be other
choice points, but the entrenchments of certain
institutional arrangements obstruct an easy reversal of
the initial choice.” Margaret Levi, 1997
• What are some of the forces leading to path
dependence?
High Exit Costs
Aqueducts
California Aqueduct at the
Interstate 205, Tracey, CA
• The CVP dams and diverts five major
rivers: the Trinity, the Sacramento, the
American, the Stanislaus, and the San
Joaquin.
Policy Image
• Professionalization
Benefit and Risk Spreading
• While the California
State Water
Project's main
purpose is to store
and transport water,
many of its facilities
were designed with
recreation in mind.
Tent and RV
camping, boating,
fishing, swimming,
waterskiing,
horseback riding,
picnicking, hiking,
photography, and
many other activities
are available at
DWR facilities.
What opens policy window?
Smeltdown ESA
New Policy Image (causal story)
• Water is precious
• Water is a scarce resource, not a RIGHT
Policy Stream
• Option 1- Shut down water for CA
agriculture and Southern CA development
• Option 2 - who cares, give me #2
– Sacramento River Winter Run Salmon
New Policies
• EWA
• adaptive or ecosystem managementlearning by doing.
Policy Soup
• “There is a long gestation period where
the policy learning takes place about
adaptive management and market
systems so that all parties are familiar with
the ideas and how they will work and
affect their interests.”
Policy Entrepreneur
Political Stream
• Clinton- can’t crater CA economy
• Supreme Court- ESA threat
• CA internal politics
– cities
– farmers
– enviros
– public
Major Policy Shifts Can Happen
• new venues that break down old iron
triangles.
• new ideas
• new policy frames or conceptualizations of
problems
• policy entrepreneurs take advantage
• Courts as Battlefields in Climate Fights,
New York Times January 26, 2010
• Kivalina alleged in its complaint that the
industry conspired “to suppress the
awareness of the link” between emissions
and climate change through “front groups,
fake citizens organizations and bogus
scientific bodies.”
S.E.C. Adds Climate Risk to
Disclosure List
• “The S.E.C., on a party-line 3-2 vote, issued
“interpretive guidance” to help companies decide
when and whether to disclose matters related to
climate change. The commission said that
companies could be helped or hurt by climaterelated lawsuits, business opportunities or
legislation and should promptly disclose such
potential impacts. Banks or insurance
companies that invest in coastal property that
could be affected by storms or rising seas, for
example, should disclose such risks, the agency
said.” New York Times 1/28/10
Pralle- Global Warming
• Political Science for Environmentalists!
• What should the Sierra Club do?
– Problem stream
24 presenters in 24 time zones
Google Top Trends Sep 15
1. michaele salahi
2. americas got talent
winner
3. brian urlacher
4. pat robertson
5.
6. nflx
7. free agents
8. lsu football
9. james carville
10.
11. lingual braces
12. apple juice
13. sarah palin
14. netflix stock
15. listeriosis
Emphasize scientific consensus
• “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident
from observations of increases in global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global
average sea level”
“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”
IPCC defines "very likely" as greater than 90% probability of
occurrence
• Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, IPCC, 2007
• American Meteorological
Society: Climate Change: An Information
Statement of the American Meteorological
Society
"Indeed, strong observational evidence
and results from modeling studies indicate
that, at least over the last 50 years, human
activities are a major contributor to climate
change." (February 2007)
• American Physical Society: Statement on
Climate Change
"The evidence is incontrovertible: Global
warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are
taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s
physical and ecological systems, social systems,
security and human health are likely to occur.
We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
beginning now." (November 2007)
• American Geophysical Union: Human Impacts on
Climate
"The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is
warming. Many components of the climate system—
including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and
ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the
sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length
of seasons—are now changing at rates and in patterns
that are not natural and are best explained by the
increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse
gases and aerosols generated by human activity during
the 20th century." (Adopted December 2003, Revised
and Reaffirmed December 2007)
• American Association for the
Advancement of Science: AAAS Board
Statement on Climate Change
"The scientific evidence is clear: global
climate change caused by human
activities is occurring now, and it is a
growing threat to society." (December
2006)
• Geological Society of America: Global Climate
Change
"The Geological Society of America (GSA)
supports the scientific conclusions that Earth’s
climate is changing; the climate changes are
due in part to human activities; and the probable
consequences of the climate changes will be
significant and blind to geopolitical
boundaries." (October 2006)
• American Chemical Society: Statement on
Global Climate Change
"There is now general agreement among
scientific experts that the recent warming trend
is real (and particularly strong within the past 20
years), that most of the observed warming is
likely due to increased atmospheric greenhouse
gas concentrations, and that climate change
could have serious adverse effects by the end of
this century." (July 2004)
• U.S. National Academy of
Sciences: Understanding and Responding
to Climate Change (pdf)
"The scientific understanding of climate
change is now sufficiently clear to justify
taking steps to reduce the amount of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."
(2005)
Clinton Global Initiative
• “We look like a joke, right? ..If you’re an
American, the best thing you can do is to
make it politically unacceptable for people
to engage in denial ... I mean, it makes us
– we look like a joke, right? You can’t win
the nomination of one of the major parties
in the country if you admit that the
scientists are right?“ 9/20/11
Policy Stream
•
•
•
•
emphasize existing solutions
Frame solutions in terms of energy
Costs of doing nothing (droughts, energy)
Economic gain green jobs
Political
Stream
• Focusing events
• Venue Shopping
– courts
– states
• "A substantial number of scientists [have]
manipulated data to keep the money rolling
in," NH campaign Trail
• “"all one contrived phony mess that is falling
apart under its own weight.“ Perry in Fed Up
• Grover Norquist "If Perry was president, one
of the things I'd not worry about is a carbon
tax. I'd worry about big spiders eating New
Jersey first."
• "I do believe that the issue of global warming has
been politicized. I think there are a substantial
number of scientists who have manipulated data
so that they will have dollars rolling into their
projects. I think we're seeing it almost weekly or
even daily, scientists who are coming forward and
questioning the original idea that man-made global
warming is what is causing the climate to change.
Yes, our climates change. They've been changing
ever since the earth was formed.“ Rick Perry, Aug
16, 2011 NH Campaign Event
• Do you think that global warming is
happening
80
70
60
50
2010
2008
40
30
20
10
0
Yes
No
Don't Know
• Which comes closest to your own view?
2010
2008
34
47
5
3
There is a lot of disagreement among scientists
about whether or not global warming is
happening
40
33
Don't know enough to say
22
18
Most scientists think global warming is
happening
Most scientists think global warming is NOT
happening
• How important is the issue of global
warming to you personally?
45
40
35
30
25
20
2010
2008
15
10
5
0
Extremely
important
Very
important
Somewhat
important
Not too
important
Not all
important
11
• http://mavensnotebook.com/2013/02/20/m
avens-minutes-california-water-policyseminar-series-continues-with-tim-quinnin-pursuit-of-coequal-goals-an-acwastatewide-perspective/
• http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/artic
le/pii/S1462901109000938