Electoral College Consequences



Winner-take-all
 Battleground states
 Targeted in campaigns
 Policy benefits
 Depresses turnout
Build broad geographical coalition
Misfire?
 Bush 3.5 million popular vote margin
 Swing of 150,000 votes in Ohio
Britain’s Division
Head of Government

Head of State
President wears “many hats”








Chief of State
Manager of the Economy
Chief Executive
Commander-in-Chief
Chief Diplomat
Chief Legislator
Chief of the Party
World Leader
Constitutional Basics

Normative ?-- Hamilton, Fed No. 70.
Energy in the Executive
 one person office
 elected for a fixed term
 national constituency
 Vague formal powers from Constitution
Constitutional DNA


Hamilton
“Energy in the
Executive”
 One person office
 Fixed term
 National
constituency
 Vague formal
powers
Few Formal Executive Powers
• Administrative head of government
• Commander-in-Chief of military
• Veto (or sign) legislation
• Nominate judges, cabinet secretaries
• Treaties, pardons, convene Congress
Modern Presidency
FDR’s Legacy
Wins World War II
 Ends the Great Depression
 Ends economic insecurity with Social
Security
 Fights for working man (unions,
minimum wage)
 Reduces agricultural poverty (farm
supports)

The Modern Presidency
WWII onward
The FDR Standard (1932-45)
• Emphasis on leadership & bully pulpit
• National problems
• New role for federal government
• President as active leader
• Welfare state
• Expanded executive branch (budget)
Paradox of the Modern
Presidency

President is #1
 Increased expectations of presidency
 Increased staff, resources
 Shift in quality and quantity of attention paid to
president
 Chief policy-maker

BUT
 No change in formal powers!
New American President
--Power of Clark Kent
--Expectations of Superman
Going Public Strategy

Presidents
 Marshall public support for their policies
and actions
 Cultivate popular cultural image of
themselves
Public Approval of President

Three general trends
 Declines while in office
 Economy
 Rally events and scandals

Beyond Presidential Control
The Current Incumbent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
George W. Bush Approval Ratings
Inaug
9/11
Iraq
Saddam
June 04
Bush- Social Security Roadtrip
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
56
52
47
40
41
48
43
35
2002
2005/1
Approve
2005/2
2005/3
Disapprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W.
Bush is handling Social Security (USA Today/Gallup)
What is George W. Bush’s
image?
Macho

“Mission Accomplished”

Cowboy (not wimp)
Compassionate Conservative
Education President
====
Likes Children and Baseball
Patriotism
Going Public
Alternative Image?
Institutional Presidency
Jefferson in 1900 had 2 assistants
 Brownlow Committee
 “The president needs help”
 President not Congress should be in charge
of executive branch

Presidency is Many People
EOP: OMB, NSC,
CEA, “czars,” VP,
and WHO
WHO: close advisors,
no Senate approval
Where is the Power?

Cabinet Officials
 Department of State
 Department of
Defense
 Department of
Treasury

Exec. Office of Pres.
 White House Office
(WHO)
 NSC
 OMB
 CEA
Institutional Presidency I: West
Wing
Institutional Presidency II:
OEOB
Implications of Instit. Pres
Radical change in system of government?
 Increased presidential control of policy
making and centralization of the decision
making
 Increases potential for screw ups
 Reduced accountability

Transition from Historical to
Modern Presidency
Historic Presidency
 President is a clerk
 Congress #1
 Modern Presidency
 Increased popular expectations
 President #1
 No change in formal powers

Modern Presidents Response
Devote tremendous time and resources to
manipulating public image
 Going public
 Have immense staff of political, policy, and
partisan experts
 Institutional presidency
 Are presidents stronger– YES, but
expectations outstrip capacity

World’s Greatest Clerkship

Neustadt, Presidential Power (Al’s prof)
 power of president do not flow from literary
reading of constitution
 Decisions are not self executing JFK, Cuban
Missile Crisis
 "The conditions that promote his leadership in
form, preclude a guarantee of leadership in
fact."
 “presidential power is power to bargain”
Limited formal powers=constant
bargaining


President can
 Nominate judges, but
 Propose trade treaties, but
 Propose popular legislation, but
 Propose spending less on military golf courses,
Will Presidents keep their promises?
 Constitutional odds are stacked against them!
Presidential power = persuasion
Formal powers are minimal
 Can propose legislation, C in C
 Dependent on other institutions
 Informal powers are crucial
 Presidential power is power to persuade
 Presidents have to bargain

Informal Powers
Professional reputation
 Electoral results
 Bargaining
 Carrot and the stick
 Marshalling public opinion (going public)

The Stick and Senator Shelby




Dem criticizes
Clinton’s Budget
Space Shuttle to TX
No Tickets for ‘Bama
Celebration at WH
Shelby’s response?
Unsuccessful Persuasion



Clinton Campaign Promise
 Allow gays and lesbians to serve openly in
military
Congress
 Sam Nunn (D-GA) on the submarine
 Don’t ask, don’t tell in Family Medical Leave
Act
C in C of Military
 Cruising chat rooms and gay bars
Success of Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell

Source: CNN Special
Report
Truman and Marshall Plan

Truman’s prospects for Aid to Europe
 Un-elected president
 Very unpopular
 Large GOP majorities in Congress
 Memory of Great Depression
 Increasing Isolationism
Ranking Presidents
Will history judge Bill Clinton as a great
president? George W. Bush?
 Why or why not?

Ranking Post WW II Presidents

Good/Great
 Truman
 Eisenhower
 JFK
–LBJ
–Reagan
–Clinton

Why such variety?

Bad/Failures
 Nixon
 Ford
 Carter
 Bush (41)
Greenstein
Executive branch “reflects the character and
personality of the president”
 highly personalized nature of modern
American Presidency
 Presidential success = Characteristics of
Individual President

Effectiveness as Public Communicator

Bully Pulpit
Organizational Capacity



Loyalty
Candid discussion
Prevent group-think
Political Skill



Establish reputation as
“skilled operator”
Opposes, then Signs
 Corporate
Responsibility Act
 Homeland Security
Public opposes
 Tax Cuts
 War in Iraq
Vision Thing


Possession of a set of
overarching goals
Over-rated?
Cognitive Style


Presidency not a
multiple choice test
Reagan vs. Carter
Emotional Intelligence


Disturbed
 Nixon
 LBJ
Risk-takers
 JFK
 Clinton
Skrownek

Presidents in Historical Time
 Times affects nature of skill
Political time as a resource for or
constraint on a president
Regime
strength
Vulnerable regime
Resilient regime
President’s Party
Affiliation
Opposed
Affiliated
Reconstructive
president
Disjunctive
president
Preemptive
president
Articulator
(Faithful Son)
president
Political Time

The idea that at any given time there is a
dominant ideological regime, connected to,
but even broader than party.

A president’s party’s relationship to the
dominant partisan regime LIMITS or
EXPANDS a president’s legitimate
authority to change national policies
Politics of Reconstruction



Greatest potential for
leadership
New ideological
commitments
Create new political
coalitions
Politics of Preemption



Constrained by dominant
ideological regime
 “Era of big government
is dead” NAFTA,
Welfare reform,
balanced budget
Focus on creative political
leadership
 V-Chip, New Covenant
Danger or personal
political isolation
Politics of Articulation



“Normal” situation
Deliver on Regime’s
unfulfilled policy agenda
 Tax cuts, deregulation,
moral issues
 Partial birth abortion,
abstinence education, gay
marriage
Maintain Political Coalition
 Prevent Moral-Economic
split
Is a strong president good?
Framers
 Can a president represent an entire nation
 Woodrow Wilson/Teddy Roosevelt critique

Presidential Power- 2 views


It is not only the president’s "right, but his duty to
do anything that the needs of the nation demanded
unless such action was forbidden by the
Congress." T. Roosevelt
The president can exercise no power which cannot
be fairly and reasonably traced to some specific
grant of power .. either in the federal constitution
or in an act of Congress. There is no undefined
residuum of power which he can exercise because
it seems to him to be in the public interest.
William Taft 1916.