World
Meteorological
Organization
WMO is the United Nations'
authoritative voice on weather,
climate and water
World Meteorological Organization
(WMO)
• United Nations Specialized Agency for
meteorology, climate, operational hydrology and
related geophysical sciences
• United Nations system’s authoritative voice on the
state and behaviour of the Earth’s atmosphere and
its interaction with the oceans, as well as on
climate and the distribution of water resources
• Established on 23 March 1950; direct successor to
the International Meteorological Organization
founded in 1873
• Comprises 188 Members: 182 States and six
territories
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
2
Aviation and the Environment
• Global Climate Change: a reality, but
more research will be needed to fully
understand all the consequences for
individual areas
• Local Air Quality: All apects of NOx,
PM10, PM2, aerosols, ozone, CO need
addressing
- Aircraft only part of the problem, but
some cities approaching limits
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
3
Climate Change – what next?
• Climate change is more than « Global
Warming »
• Public perception has changed dramatically
• Aviation contributing more than CO
• NOx, Cirrus effect different time scale
• Operational measures need to include
optimized use of meteorological information
2
– Upper winds and temperatures
– Terminal aerodrome optimization (holdings, corner
posts, runway changes)
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
4
EU aviation emissions
growing rapidly
Development of EU-25 GHG emissions
100,0%
60,0%
International aviation GHG
emissions % over 1990
40,0%
Total GHG (without LUCF) %
over 1990
20,0%
0,0%
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
Growth over 1990
80,0%
-20,0%
Year
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
5
Contrails and Cirrus
• Moderate effect during daytime, larger
warming during the night (no
compensating reflection of short wave
radiation)
• + Layers of high humidity are normally
thin and could potentially be avoided
• + Less air traffic at night would allow
avoidance without compromising RVSM
• Need for more environmental monitoring
by aircraft (AMDAR, IAGOS, MOZAIC)
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
6
1979-2003
1951-1978
1901-1950
fewer
more
fewer
more
Frequency of occurrence of cold or warm temperatures for 202
global stations for 3 time periods:
1901 to 1950 (black), 1951 to 1978 (blue) and 1979 to 2003 (red).
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
7
Extremes Increasing!
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
8
Effects on Cryosphere
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
9
Precipitation pattern
Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes
Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
10
PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE
CHANGES IN CLIMATE
• Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and
heavy precipitation events will continue to
become more frequent
• Likely that future tropical cyclones will become
more intense, with larger peak wind speeds
and more heavy precipitation
– less confidence in decrease of total
number
• Extra-tropical storm tracks projected to move
poleward with consequent changes in wind,
precipitation, and temperature patterns
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
11
Migation of aviation impact:
• Further improvements to wind & temp
forecasts –reduced flight times!
• Enhanced co-operation with ATC/ATM:
(NGATS, SESAR….)
• Co-operation with airports: Winter
operations, runway flooding, lightning
warnings,capacity forecasts, wake vortex
• Increased environmental monitoring by
aircraft
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
12
AMDAR Humidity Measurement
Skin
Hose,
NonHeated
Air Sampler
Hose,
Heated
Frame
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
13
Anticipated effects on Aviation
(Demand side)
• Tourism: Popular Destinations in
Subtropics will suffer from droughts,
sand-and duststorms
• Winter tourism (skiing) will suffer from
lack of reliable snow cover
• Tropical Island destinations suffer from
stronger cyclones, sea level rise
• Cost to national economies of mitigating
and compensating for climate change
may affext free disposable income
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
14
Effects on Aviation Operations
• Hot extremes: performance limitations on
flights near max endurance
• Tropical Cyclones: Damages to
infrastructure, disruption of schedules,
evacuation?
• Intensity of storms and convection:
severe disruption of apch/dept , blocking
of flight levels, runway flooding, ,sandand dust storms
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
15
Thanks for material:
• Working Group I Contribution to the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Presented by
R.K. Pachauri, IPCC Chair
and
Bubu Jallow, WG 1 Vice Chair
• Europe & Emission Trading
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
16
Note:Aviation induced Cirrus!
THANK YOUR FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
7/26/2016Montréal
The way forward
17