Let Me See:
Visualizing Actuarial Information
Aleksey Popelyukhin, Ph.D.
Vice President, Information Systems & Technology
aleksey@commrisk.com
COMMERCIAL RISK
Actuarial Process
Data Collection, Cleanup and
Transformation

Application of Agorithms and
Methods

Representation of Results

0
Actuarial Process
Algorithms
Results
Data
1
Ideal Actuarial System
An ideal actuarial processing solution is a
a) transparent to users and b) highly efficient
storage/retrieval system for
c) structured actuarial data (objects) with
d) an extremely flexible, e) computationally
complete, f) open
calculation engine and
g) integrated, h) automated and i) interactive
report generator
2
Actuarially-Centric Systems
Insurance companies build their computer
systems around their strengths:
 Claims
 Accounting
 Underwriting
Actuarial Functionality is always an
afterthought
2a
Human perception
Relies heavily on Short-Term Memory.
Problems with STM:
 Can hold only 5-7 similar similar items at
once
 It’s a “buffer”: new info erases old
information
 Even without distractions can hold info only
for 30 seconds
2b
Data-Driven Technologies
Adaptive Reporting
 Visualization
 Alarm Systems

2c
Adaptive Reporting

Adaptive Reporting
 Filtering
 Sorting
 Outlining
 Conditional Formatting
 OLAP-enabled tools
2d
Adaptive Reporting: Filtering
 Auto-Filter
in Excel
 Plain-Vanilla
Filtering
 Checking Distinct Values
 Adaptive Filtering (through VBA)
3
Adaptive Reporting: Outlining
 Outlining
in Excel
 Hierarchical
view
 Different level of details
 Subtotals
 Master-Detail
relationship in Access
4
Adaptive Reporting: Sorting
Does not reduce amount of information
displayed
 Brings most important info on top or up
front
 Requires definition of importance

5
Adaptive Reporting: Dynamic Formatting
 Conditional
 allows
Formatting in Excel
users to define
font
 color
 border
 background pattern

of a cell as a function of the values in
other cells
6
Adaptive Reporting: OLAP
(Online Analitycal Processing)

Pivot Tables and OLAP cubes in Excel

Combine




Add on-the-fly processing



Filtering
Outlining
Sorting
Calculated Field
Calculated Item
Data Source is not limited by 65,536 rows
7
Visualization: Charts

There is a chart for every occasion:

line chart for displaying increases
 bar for shares
 pedestal for ranks
 Gantt for schedules
But what about actuarial triangles?

8
Visualization: Charts
1.250
1.200
1.150
1.100
1.050
24 - 36
60 - 72
1989
1990
1991
1992
1994
1995
1996
1997
1993
1.000
96 - 108
8a
Visualization: Maps

Maps in Microsoft MapPoint:
Colors
 Shapes
 Glyphs
 Isosurfaces



Links to Office applications
VBA
9
Visualization: Animation
If a picture is worth a thousand words, then
an animation is worth a thousand pictures


“selective attention”: people react on any
movement (change in color, shape or position)
 display of different stages in the motion
 displacement plots
 time animations
 streamlines (traces)
For actuaries: iterations of simulation!
10
Visualization: Visual Tools
Making actuarial selections interactively,
directly on the chart
 Instant visual feedback
 Changing parameters during animation:
invaluable for DFA

11
Alarm Systems: Data Quality

Alarm System triggers an action
whenever problem is found:




creates record in the log
sends e-mail
stops processing
runs additional tests
12
Alarm Systems: Algorithms Applicability

Actuarial assumptions testing
 Mack
 Murphy
 Zehnwirth
13
Alarm Systems: Digital Dashboard

Portal to the most important info
 Corporate
 Professional
 Personal

Dashboard’s space limitations reemphasize the necessity of spaceconscious reporting techniques!
14
Conclusion
For effective use of
computerized reporting tools
available to actuaries, it is
imperative to define
measurable indicators of
actuarial significance…
15
Conclusion
“The gods help them that help themselves.”
Aesop
15
Me.About
Actuarially related activities:
•
•
•
•
Prize for the best article in the “Data Management discussion paper”
call (1997).
Creation and distribution of actuarial software
• Triangle Maker® (1994), Triangle Maker® Pro (1997), Actuarial Toolchest™
(1998) , Enabler™ (1999)
Design, development and coding of the 2nd and 3rd (current)
generation of Affinity (1996)
Promotion of notions like Ideal Actuarial System and Data Quality
Shield, and paradigms like object-oriented actuarial software and
data-driven visualization.
Presently developing an integrated pricing/reserving/DFA computer system for reinsurance and also an action/adventure
computer game tentatively called “Actuarial Judgement”. An active member of several scientific societies and an author
of almost 20 scientific publications.
end