Solvency II A Work in Progress CAS Meeting, Quebec Alessa Quane June 2008 Soundbites “This is an ambitious proposal that will completely overhaul the way we ensure the financial soundness of our insurers.” – Charlie McCreevy, European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services “We are setting a world-leading standard that requires insurers to focus on managing all the risks they face and enables them to operate much more efficiently. It’s good news for consumers, for the insurance industry and the EU economy as a whole” - Charlie McCreevy, European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services “Solvency II is not just about capital. It is a change of behavior.” – Thomas Steffan, Chairman of CEIOPS “The purpose of Solvency II is not necessarily to strengthen the industry’s capital base, but more to ensure that sufficient regulatory and internal risk management controls are in place to enable management and regulators to more fully understand and control the dynamics of the industry’s risk profile.” – Simon Harris, Moody’s Team Managing Director for European Insurance. Page 2 What is Solvency II? Updated set of insurance regulations for Europe facilitating the creation of a single market for insurance services in Europe while protecting consumers at a consistent level across all member states Will introduce economic risk-based solvency requirements across all EU Member States Total balance sheet approach versus only focusing on the liability side as Solvency I does Emphasizes that capital is not the only way to mitigate against failures. Solvency II rules compel insurers specifically to focus on and devote significant resources to the identification, measurement and proactive management of risks. Strengthen the role of the group supervisor While Solvency II is a European initiative, many outside the EU are taking an interest Page 3 in the development of the framework and its implementation. Lamfalussy Process What is it? What does it include? Who develops it? Who decides? Level 1 Solvency II Directive Overall framework principles European Commission European Parliament & Council Level 2 Implementing measures Detailed implementation measures European Commission European Commission with consent of EIOPC & EP Level 3 Supervisory standards Guidelines for day to day supervision CEIOPS CEIOPS Level 4 Evaluation Monitoring compliance and enforcement European Commission European Commission Source: CEA Page 4 Solvency II Key Players European Union Parliament European Council of Ministers European Union Commission Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pension Supervisors (CEIOPS) CEA (Comité Européen des Assurances) Groupe Consultatif Other stakeholders - CRO Forum, national regulators, individual firms both within the EEA and outside Page 5 Solvency II Timetable 2005 2007 2006 2008 Directive Development Directive Adoption QIS 1 QIS 4 QIS 2 QIS 3 2009 2010 Framework Directive Published 2011 2012 Full Implementation Further QIS * Initial discussions and drafting began prior to 2005. Page 6 Solvency II Timetable 2008 is a crucial year in the timetable Framework Directive defining the Level 1 principles for Solvency II will pass through the EU Parliament Level 2 detailed implementing measures will be developed by the EU Commission CEIOPS and other stakeholders will provide advice on the Level 2 measures Individual firms will participate in QIS 4 and suggest wording for the Level 2 measures Page 7 Three Pillars of Solvency II Pillar I Pillar II Pillar III Surplus Disclosure Requirements Surplus Add-Ons SCR SCR MCR MCR Assets Assets Risk Margin Risk Margin Liabilities Liabilities Firm Analysis Supervisory Analysis Page 8 Solvency Capital Requirement Standard Formula SCR Basic SCR Non-Life Insurance Market Operational Health Insurance Credit Life Insurance Premium & Reserve Foreign Exchange Long Term Mortality Catastrophe Spread Short Term Longevity Interest Rate Workers Compensation Catastrophe Concentration Property Revision Equity Lapse Expense Disability Page 9 Financial Impact of New Regime I. Solvency capital requirements will increase substantially for most European insurers, although the proposed regime does not require extra capital in the European insurance market as a whole. II. No significant overall change in terms of the composition or size of the balance sheet compared with Solvency I at a European level III. Technical provisions tend to decrease due to the implicit prudence in the current regime thereby increasing available capital IV. 98% of firms would find it unnecessary to raise additional capital to meet the MCR V. 16% of insurers would need to raise additional funds to cover the SCR under QIS 3 VI. QIS 3 results indicate that non-life insurers appear to be more heavily impacted than life insurers Page 10 Composition of Non-Life SCR Source: CEIOPS’ Report on its Third Quantitative Impact Study for Solvency II Page 11 SCR Comparison with Internal Models I. Internal models generally produce a higher charge for credit risk than the SCR module II. For non-life insurance, internal models produce significantly lower total SCRs than the standard formula, with an average reduction of 25% III. No clear pattern as to whether internal models produce a lower or higher operational risk charge than the standard formula Internal Model submissions in QIS 3 Number of Models Life Full 54 56 15 Full and Partial 55 65 15 Non-Life Composite Represents 13% of firms, by submission numbers Page 12 Areas for Further Investigation I. Non-EU supervisors and group proposals I. Equivalence of regimes II. Level playing field for EU and non-EU groups III. Application of a consistent economic assessment of available and required capital to all businesses, both EEA and non-EEA II. Technical Provisions I. More guidance on calculation of the risk margin I. II. Is the 6% cost of capital still a placeholder? Diversification between lines of business II. Debate around possible simplifications or proxies to make up for a lack of data III. Recognition of future premium Page 13 Areas for Further Work III. SCR I. Calibration of non-life underwriting risk II. Granularity of equity risk shocks III. Treatment of unrated entities with regard to counterparty default risk IV. Possible simplification of the concentration risk component and impact on firms in smaller countries with fewer market options V. Inclusion of expected profits VI. Exclusion of free assets in the market risk module VII. Appropriate treatment of catastrophes IV. Structure and calibration of the MCR I. Ladder of intervention II. Consistent framework I. Compact Approach II. Modular Approach III. Linear Approach Page 14 Areas for Further Work VI. Own Funds I. Guidance on classification of eligible elements II. Implications for hybrid instruments III. Clarification on valuation of participations (look-through vs market value) VII. Groups I. Non-comparable data has been supplied and clarification is therefore needed in order to draw conclusions on these issues I. Scope of consolidation II. Group coverage III. Internal model results IV. Consideration of the rules to which cross sector and non-EEA entities are subject as well as the extent to which surplus assets are transferable Page 15 Areas for Further Work VIII. Internal Models I. Criteria for model approval I. II. III. Statistical quality Use test Documentation standards Page 16 Implications for Firms I. Require more formal approach to governance demonstrating that insurers are aware of the risks affecting their business and that they have embedded this awareness in the daily running of the business. II. Cost of compliance is likely to be significant and will be a large change for many jurisdictions. III. Possible consolidation within the insurance industry as small firms may be disadvantaged by lack of technical resources, lack of geographic and product diversification and more expensive capital IV. Move toward risk sensitive pricing as a result of more efficient capital allocation. This will lead to greater segmentation and value driven products. V. Increase demand for reinsurance, liability securitization and hedging VI. Further fuel the rating agencies shift in focus onto companies’ risk management frameworks and desire for disclosure. Page 17 Implications for Actuaries I. Require more complex analysis and systematic approaches to risk management. This will increase the demand for actuaries and risk management personnel. II. Need to more closely coordinate with finance, risk management and other business functions. III. Better explanation of assumptions, sensitivities, limitations and methods underlying the computations and results to senior management who will be relying on this information throughout the risk embedding process. IV. Increase in the development of advanced analytical tools and systems capable of providing a more informed basis for control and decision-making. Page 18