Welcome to
Critical Thinking
Larry Chester
“Tell me and I'll forget; show me and I
may remember; involve me and I'll
understand.”
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Management Thinking
Strategy
Projects
Initiatives
Scan
Current State
Processes
Performance
Change
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Future State
2
Evolution
Big Brain
4 Billion
360
Million
Language
65
Million
10 Thousand
2
Million
150 Thousand
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3
Big Brain: Three Parts
• The reptilian brain: fight or flight, tends
to react
• The limbic brain: emotional response
• The “thinking” brain: rational, creative,
thoughtful, tends to think ahead or
proact
• Which of these brains do we use most
of the time on the job?
• Why?
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4
Malcolm Gladwell, Blink
• Whenever we make a decision, most of us most of
the time will make that decision within two seconds!
• Then, we look for information to support our
decision
• Good news: sometimes we are right!
• Bad news: sometimes we are wrong!
• Key: It is not enough to have the right answer, often
we must convince others that we have the right
answer.
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Questions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Do they have a 4th of July in England?
How many birthdays does the average Canadian man have?
Seven months have 31 days; how many have 28?
How many outs are there in an inning?
Is it legal for a Canadian man to marry his widow’s sister?
Divide 30 by ½ and add 10. What is the answer?
If there are 3 apples and you take away 2, how many do you have?
A doctor gives you three pills, telling you to take one every halfhour. How many minutes would the pills last?
A farmer has 17 sheep and all but 9 die. How many are left?
How many animals of each sex did Moses take on the ark?
How many two-cent stamps in a dozen?
If an American plane crashes in Canada, where would they bury the
survivors?
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Types of Issues
Situation Assessment
WHAT is happening?
Problem Solving
WHY is it happening?
1000
issues
Action Planning
HOW do we do it?
Decision Making
WHICH is the best course of action?
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An Obvious Question
Are these thinking skills not just
simply common sense?
Sure, but the only problem with common sense
is that it isn’t common! So, how do we make
common practice out of common sense?
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Flowchart For Problem Resolution
NO
YES
Is It Working?
Don’t Mess With It!
YES
Did You Mess
With It?
YOU IDIOT!
NO
Anyone Else
Knows?
NO
Hide It
YES
You’re SCREWED!
NO
Can You Blame
Someone Else?
YES
Will it Blow Up
In Your Hands?
NO
Look The Other Way
Yes
NO PROBLEM!
9
Brain Teaser
• A woman gives a beggar 50 cents.
• The woman is the beggar’s sister, but the
beggar is not the woman’s brother.
• How can this be?
• We instinctively assume that beggars are
men. In this case, the beggar is a woman.
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Learning Stages
Not fully competent
Fully competent
Conscious
2
3
Not conscious
1
4
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Value of moving from 4 to 3
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Coach or teach others
Improved thinking processes
Better communication
More confidence in our conclusions
Documentation of our thinking
Less likely to jump to conclusions
Greater innovation and creativity
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Process vs Content
Content (WHAT): The information, technology,
body of knowledge specific to our job
Process (HOW): The gathering and processing of
information to come to conclusions
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Different styles
Some people like to:
• Make sure they have all the facts and details
• Generate as many options as they possibly
can
• Analyze the options logically to choose the
option that makes the most sense
• Get agreement, commitment, support and
buy-in from everyone
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Left-Brained Thinking
Gather
Facts
Evaluate
Facts
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Right-Brained Thinking
Generate
Ideas
Seek
Agreement
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Basic Thinking Process
Gather
Evaluate
Generate
Agree
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Factors for Success
Victor Vroom
•The best possible solution
•Commitment to implement
But, Dr. Vroom also determined that one of
these two factors is more important than the
other. Which one is most important?
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We tend to think in this order
Gather
Evaluate
Generate
Agree
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Most Common Pitfall
We assume we already know the right answer
We assume we know what is
happening
We assume we know the priority
We assume we know the cause of our
problems
We assume that we know the right
resolution process
We assume we already know the best
solution
We assume that our people are
committed
We assume we can implement
without anything else changing
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Handwriting Exercise
• Write your name on piece of paper
• Now, write your name again using the other
hand
• How does it feel when using the other hand?
• Would it be fair to say that you have a
preference for one hand over the other?
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Thinking Preferences
Gather
Evaluate
Generate
Agree
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Personal Preferences
Energy
Information
Gathering
Information
Processing
Extravert
Introvert
Sensing
Intuitive
Thinking
Feeling
Judging
Perceiving
Lifestyle
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Assessing Preferences (MBTI)
Gather
(Sensor)
Generate
(Intuitive)
Evaluate
(Thinker)
Agree
(Feeler)
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Critical Thinking Skills Road Map
Basic Thinking Process
Critical
Thinking Skills
Gather
Situation
Assessment
Identify Issues
PS
WHAT?
Why
Generate
Agree
Anticipate
Issues
Clarify
Describe
Problem
List Causes
Test and
Confirm
Gain Support
Set Objectives
Generate
Alternatives
Evaluate
Alternatives
Seek
Agreement
Draft Plan
Anticipate
Changes
Revise Plan
Gain Support
AP
SA
Evaluate
Set Priority
Consider
Involvement
How
What
DM
Which
Problem
Solving
WHY?
PS
Why
AP
SA
How
What
DM
Which
Decision
Making
WHICH?
PS
Why
AP
SA
Action
Planning
HOW?
How
What
PS
Why
SA
What
DM
Which
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Process Dynamics
PS
Why
AP
SA
How
What
DM
Which
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Meetings
• Has anyone here ever been to a bad meeting?
• Why was it so bad?
• Let me tell you about a bad meeting I recently
attended…
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Business Review Meeting
• Ten of us were at the meeting
• Each of us brought 2, 3, or 4 key concerns
• The manager asked, “Okay, folks. What are
your concerns?”
• One of us brought forward an issue.
• What did we all do when the issue hit the
table?
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What is the probability that…
• We all had a common understanding of the
issue when it first hit the table?
• This issue was the most important issue we all
had brought?
• We had all the right people in the room?
• We had all the information needed to solve
the issue?
• We effectively resolved the issue?
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Two Aspects of Handling Issues
• Handle the right issues
– Situation Assessment
• Handle the issues right
– Problem Solving
– Decision Making
– Action Planning
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Which does not belong?
• Radar
• Kayak
• Raven
• Racecar
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Some people say…
•
•
•
•
KAYAK because it is the only one starting with a K
RAVEN because it is the only non-palindrome
RACECAR because all the rest have 5 letters
RADAR because it was originally an acronym
(RAdio Detection And Ranging)
• The meaning depends on your perception and
interpretation
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Situation Assessment
Identify
Issues
Clarify
Set Priority
Anticipate
Issues
Consider
Involvement
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Identify Issues
Ask Questions:
• What is happening?
• Are there any:
–
–
–
–
customer concerns or complaints?
deviations from expectations or budgets?
opportunities for improvement?
changes in processes or procedures?
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Anticipate Issues
Ask Questions:
• What could happen?
• Could there be any:
–
–
–
–
–
potential customer concerns or complaints?
trends which could result in:
potential deviations from expectations or budgets?
potential opportunities for improvement?
anticipated changes in processes or procedures?
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Code Words
•
•
•
•
•
Morale
Productivity
Customer service
Quality
Communications
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Clarifying Questions
Ask questions
•What evidence do you have?
•What do you mean by…?
•Huh?
These questions force us to move from the
general to the specific.
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Setting Priority
Ask questions
What is the importance?
-
Money (earned or saved)
People affected
Customer
Reputation of organization
Health or safety
What is the urgency?
- Deadline
- Window of opportunity
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Priority Matrix
Issues
Importance
Urgency
Priority
__________
H
L
2
__________
M
H
3
__________
L
H
5
__________
M
M
4
__________
H
H
1
__________
L
M
6
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Lakein Technique
•A
•B
•C
Important
Now
Unimportant
“C” drawer
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Later
(Never)
41
Covey Technique
Urgent
Not
Urgent
Important
1
2
Not
Important
3
4
Where did Covey suggest we try to spend most of our
time? Why?
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Consider Involvement
Ask Questions:
HOW can the issue be resolved?
- Problem solving
- Decision making
- Action planning
WHO should be involved?
-
Who has the information?
Who has the skills?
Whose approval is needed?
Whose commitment is needed for implementation?
Who is affected?
WHEN must the issue be resolved?
- Deadline
- Window of opportunity
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Module 2
Problem Solving
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Problem Solving
Problem
Expected
Cause
Actual
Positive or
negative gap or
deviation from
expectations
•Clear gap in performance
•Do not know, but need to know, the true cause
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Introduction to Problem Solving
• The Rash Flight Attendants Case
• You have 15 minutes to solve the case
• All I ask is that you be unanimous within your
group
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Problem Solving
Describe
Problem
List
Causes
Test &
Confirm
Gain
Support
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Describe Problem
Gathers all the information about the problem:
•Problem statement: Provides focus
•Describe symptoms: Gathers the relevant facts
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Describe Problem
Problem Statement
• The object, person, or process affected
• The problem: gap, defect, or variance
Example:
The junior flight attendants have a rash
Persons
Defect
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Questions to Describe Problem
Is Not
IS
Is Not
What
Is Not
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Describe Symptoms
W
IS
W
Descriptive Information (IS)
W
Comparative Information (IS NOT)
WHAT
WHAT
What is the person, object, or process with
the problem?
What could be expected to have the problem,
but is not?
What is the problem?
What similar problem could be happening,
but is not?
WHERE
WHERE
Where geographically is the person, object, or
process with the problem?
Where geographically could the problem be
happening, but is not?
Where on the person, object, or process is the
problem?
Where could the problem be happening, but is
not?
WHEN
WHEN
When in calendar time was the problem
first noticed?
When could the problem have been first
noticed, but was not?
When has the problem been seen since?
Is there a pattern?
When could the problem be noticed, but is
not?
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Example: The Red Rash
Junior flight attendants have a red rash
IS
IS NOT
WHAT
WHAT
Junior flight attendants
Rash
Seniors, passengers, and pilots
Other skin disorders
WHERE
WHERE
Toronto to London
Vancouver to Fairbanks
Toronto to Vancouver
Vancouver to Winnipeg
Back of neck, wrists
Rest of body
WHEN
WHEN
2 weeks ago
Before then
Within 1 hour of take-off
After 1 hour
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List Causes
• Identifying all the factors which could cause
these symptoms
• Where do we get possible causes:
– Experience
– Imagination
– Additional techniques
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List Causes
Questions:
What has caused this problem in the past?
•Food or food additives
•Fuel-soaked rag
What could cause this problem?
•Rock concert
•Stress
•Uniforms
•Safety equipment
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Test and Confirm
• Testing eliminates all causes which do not
make any sense
– Sherlock Holmes: “When we have
eliminated all hypotheses (causes) which
are impossible, the one left, however
improbable it first appeared, must be
true.”
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Test and Confirm
Testing Question:
If this cause is the true cause, how does it explain both the IS and
the IS NOT data?
Possible Answers:
•YES, it does explain because...
•NO, it does not explain because...
•YES, it does explain if (assumption)
And we confirm to make sure:
•Check assumptions
•Observe or test
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Example: The Rash
Junior flight attendants have a rash
IS
IS NOT
WHAT
WHAT
Junior flight attendants
Senior flight attendants
Rash
Other skin disorders
WHERE
WHERE
Toronto to London
Vancouver to Fairbanks
Toronto to Vancouver
Vancouver to Winnipeg
Back of neck, wrists
Rest of body
WHEN
WHEN
2 weeks ago
Before then
Within 1 hour of take-off
After 1 hour
Possible Causes
Food additives
Uniforms
Safety equipment (life
jackets)
©Process Design Consultants Inc.
Test
Confirm
No, why only the
neck
Check to confirm that
only juniors
demonstrate the
safety equipment and
only on these flights
No, why only the
juniors? The
uniforms are the
same for everyone
Test life jackets to
confirm that they
contain an allergenic
substance
No, why only the
juniors
Yes, if life preservers
only demonstrated
by juniors and only
over water
58
Module 3
Decision Making
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Bad Decisions
• Has anyone here ever made a bad decision?
• The common feature of bad decisions is that
there is one factor so attractive, so powerful,
so compelling that it drives all the other
factors off the table
• Example…
• Now, a better example…
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Choose the Best Place to Live
Existing apartment building being converted
into condos; 1600 sf; downtown; close to
office; $615,000
Victorian townhouse, end unit of three (unit on
far right); 2020 sf; extra three blocks from
office; 12-foot ceilings; $670,000
Suburban detached house; 35 minute train ride
to office; local parks, hiking trails and
community centre with gym; shopping malls;
2540 sf; $679,000
Set Objectives
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Price < $700,000
Monthly cost of $4,000
Safe and secure
Kitchen/bathrooms
Close to office
Local amenities
Maximize space
Schooling
62
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Inc.
Evaluate Alternatives
Decision: Choose the best place for the Klines to live
Criteria
Condo
Townhouse
Suburban house
MUST
Price < $700,000
$615,000
$670,000
$679,000
MUST
Monthly cost of $4,000
$3104 + 825
$3381 + 400
$3347 + 420 + 200
WANT 10
WANT 8
WANT 7
WANT 7
WANT 5
WANT 5
RISK
RISK
63
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Inc.
Evaluate Alternatives
Decision: Choose the best place for the Klines to live
Criteria
Condo
Townhouse
Suburban house
MUST
Price < $700,000
$615,000
$670,000
$679,000
MUST
Monthly cost of $4,000
$3104 + 825
$3381 + 400
$3347 + 420 + 400
WANT
Safe and secure
Good
Excellent
Excellent
WANT
Kitchen/bathrooms
Needs reno
Recent reno
Builder grade
WANT
Close to office
10 minutes
15 minutes
45-50 minutes
WANT
Local amenities
Excellent
Excellent
Good
WANT
Maximize space
16oo sf
2020 sf
2540 sf
WANT
Schooling
Very good
Poor
Excellent
64
Evaluate Alternatives
Decision: Choose the best place for the Klines to live
Criteria
Condo
Townhouse
Suburban house
MUST
Price < $700,000
$615,000
$670,000
$679,000
MUST
Monthly cost of $4,000
$3104 + 825
$3381 + 400
$3347 + 420 + 400
WANT
Safe and secure
Good
Excellent
Excellent
WANT
Kitchen/bathrooms
Needs reno
Recent reno
Builder grade
WANT
Close to office
10 minutes
15 minutes
45-50 minutes
WANT
Local amenities
Excellent
Excellent
Good
WANT
Maximize space
16oo sf
2020 sf
2540 sf
WANT
Schooling
Very good
Poor
Excellent
RISK
Move-in costs
High/High
Low/Low
Low/Low
RISK
Property values decline
Hold value
Increase in value
Small increase
The risk does not change my mind; it reinforces my choice
65
Best Possible Choice
Benefits
66
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Consultants Inc.
Decision Making
Determine
Objectives
Generate
Alternatives
Evaluate
Alternatives
Seek
Agreement
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Creativity Continuum
(Developed by the Center for Creative Leadership)
Innovative
Adaptive
Expanding the envelope
Breaking the envelope
Evolutionary
Revolutionary
Baby steps
Giant leaps
Continuous Improvement
Breakthrough Thinking
Comfortable for the organization
Uncomfortable for the organization
Rewarding for the individual
Punishing for the individual
Need to survive
Need to thrive
Thinking inside the Box
Thinking outside the Box
Algorithmic Thinking
Heuristic Thinking
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Connect All Nine Dots
Use only 4 straight lines; do not lift your pen from the paper
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Arrange 10 Dots into 5 rows of 4
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Module 5
Action Planning
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Upfront Thinking
• Someone has already made a decision and listed
their objectives
– Results or deliverables
– Resource constraints
– Other constraints
• So, the good news is we know what to deliver
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Single Malt Tour
• Action Statement : Plan a whisky trail tour of Islay
this summer by Dec 31
• Objectives
– Three days available
– Cost no more than $1000 including rental car,
meals and accommodation
– Visit all 7 distilleries for tour and taste test
– Buy one bottle not available in Canada at each
location
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Action Planning
Draft
Plan
Anticipate
Changes
Revise
Plan
Gain
Support
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Draft Plan
• The Action Statement gives focus to the plan
– Action
+
End Result
+
Completion Date
• List the steps
Task
Task
Task
Task
End
Result
Task
Task
Task
Task
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Plan
• A plan is a list of steps, who will do each and when
Task
(What)
Responsibility
(Who)
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Timing
(When)
77
Are we ready to implement?
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Anticipate Changes
Murphy’s Law
In any field of human endeavour, if anything can go
wrong it will go wrong.
Corollary
Even if nothing can go wrong, it will still go wrong!
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Anticipate Changes
Potential Problems
Action Plan
Start
Finish
Problem
Question: What could go wrong? (Problems)
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Anticipate Changes
Potential Problems
Start
Finish
Cause
Problem
Question: What could cause it to go wrong? (Causes)
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Revise Plan
Protect Plan
Start
Finish
Cause
Problem
Reduce
Probability
Reduce
Impact
Preventive
Action
Contingent
Action
(Avoiding)
(Mitigating)
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Protecting Your Plan
Problem
Contingent Actions
Causes
Preventive Actions
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Four Thinking Skills
PS
Why
AP
SA
How
What
DM
Which
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