Activities of LUCC-IPO Annual Report 2001 International Project Office of the ‘Land-Use and Land-Cover Change’ (LUCC) Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) Département de Géographie Université Catholique de Louvain 3, pl. Pasteur B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve Contents 1 – Promotion of LUCC Science 2- Outreach Activities 3 – Regional Networks & Endorsed Projects 4 – Transition to Land Change Science 5 - Meetings at which Project was Presented 6 - Publications 1 1 Promotion of LUCC Science 1.1 Identification of gaps and prioritisation of research LUCC-IPO assisted the chair in convening the LUCC Scientific Steering Committee Meeting in Wavre, Belgium, 11-13 January 2001, took responsibilities for follow-up activities, and has assisted in organising the LUCC SSC Meeting in Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium, 11-13 April 2002. A working paper on identification of gaps and prioritisation of LUCC research was worked out on the basis of the Wavre Meeting minutes. It got published in IGBP Newsletter #46 in June, was given on to LUCC’s homepage in July, and became part of LUCC’s position paper in the restructuration of IGBP. 1.2 Dialogue with funding agencies LUCC-IPO was in dialogue with: European Commission (EC), Research Directorate General, Units Global Change & Biodiversity, and Environment: study course proposal on LUCC modelling, conference and workshop proposals, input into a soil strategy paper. European Space Agency (ESA): proposals for Earth Explorer Opportunity Missions. European Science Foundation (ESF): distribution of LUCC relevant calls for proposal. Asia-Pacific Network (APN): future management of proposal reviews. Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START): regional IHDP/LUCC initiative for West Africa, recruitment of participants for Amsterdam OSC, distribution of award announcements. US National Science Foundation (NSF): exploration of opportunities of focussed NSF funding of LUCC activities. International Council for Science (ICSU): contribution to the ICSU/GEC global programmes initiative as part of the Rio+10 planning process in the form of a LUCC position paper on sustainable land development. NASA’s Land Use and Land Cover Change programme: scientific collaboration and review of ongoing projects. 1.3 Coordination of data efforts To develop a data strategy in order to access and produce needed data sets, LUCC-IPO collaborated with IHDP’s Sustainability Geoscope Preparatory Project (global observation system for the emergent ‘Anthropocene’) 1.4 Standardization of methodologies, definition of experimental protocols The Land Cover Classification System (LCCS) methodology of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) was recommended by the LUCC SCC to the wider community through a research report and newsletter/web information. FAO’s Africover Project, the finalisation of which made possible LCCS, got endorsed. Based on a meta-analyis of tropical deforestation cases, LUCC-IPO together with chair designed and published an improved framework for causative factor analysis in land change science. 1.5 Synthesis and state-of-the-art papers 2 Major recent progress in and priority tasks for future land-use change research as outcome of the Janurary SSC Meeting got published in LUCC and IGBP newsletters. A special journal got published on state-of-the-art in land use change modelling and was distributed to SSC members and leaders of LUCC endorsed projects. An international journal article got published on causes, drivers and pathways of land change as outcome of the March 2000 LUCC synthesis workshop. At several occasions, LUCC-IPO assisted in reviewing contributions of individual SSC members to IGBP’s Earth System Overview (ESO). 1.6 Collaborations LUCC-IPO contributed to IHDP’s urbanisation initiative through a position paper, focussed announcements and recruitment of Third World participants. It assisted IGBP’s secretariat to have included most recent and important LUCC results on their website (‘science highlights’) and in science (synthesis) publications. Mainly through its Focus 1 Office, it collaborated with ‘Past Global Changes’ (PAGESIGBP) to bridge the gap between global databases and local studies in cooperation with palaeo researchers and environmental historians, and with ‘Human Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems’ (HITE-PAGES) to better include results from ‘Land Use and Climate Impacts on Fluvial Systems During The Period of Agriculture’ (LUCIFS). It collaborated with ‘Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems’ (GCTE-IGBP) to organise LUCC input into several workshops (carbon, biodiversity), to run joint EU-COST actions on historical reconstruction, non-linear land change and coupling of land-use with soil erosion models, and to launch joint project activities in the fields of biodiversity, landscape fragmentation, fire dynamics, land degradation and land use change modelling. Together with the chair, it provided ‘Global Analysis, Integration and Modelling’ (GAIMIGBP) with a short paper synthesizing major recent progress in and priority tasks for future LUCC research. It submitted to ‘Data & Information System’ (DIS-IGBP) databases of the global historical cropland development (BIOME 300 initiative) to be included into IGBP’s digital atlas project. It collaborated with ‘Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change’ (IDGECIHDP) to review a Forest Scoping Paper, discussed joint IDGEC-LUCC proposals, forwarded requests for collaborative research in the field of environmental law, discussed specific pathways of future collaboration (case study comparison, joint workshops), and provided IDGEC-IPO with information on specifics of funding an international project office. Common project endorsements by LUCC-IPO and ‘Industrial Transformation’ (IT-IHDP) were done in the field of food production and (dis)intensification in land use. LUCC-IPO collaborated with IHDP’s GeoScope through submission of potential collaborators and input into several workshops. It provided specifics of how to run an international project office to its local host university for the potential establishement of an ‘Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’ (IPCC) focus office at LUCC-IPO’s host university. In collaboration with selected SSC members, LUCC-IPO worked out and circulated a rationale containing pros & cons of future involvement in the ‘Millenium Ecosystem Assessment’ (MA), submitted names and contacts of potential collaborators to MA, and committed itself to produce a 10-years global map of land cover change hot spots. LUCC-IPO established closer relations to the LUCC Study Group of the International Geographical Union (IGU) through membership and joint development of IGU-LUCC workshop rationals. LUCC produced a paper for preparation of the ICSU meeting in Paris on Science and Sustainable Development. 3 2Outreach Activities 2.1 Comparative case studies LUCC-IPO gave Research Report #4 (meta-analysis of 152 deforestation cases) in review, reworked, published and distributed the report (paper and web version). Based on the case study comparison, LUCC-IPO together with chair designed and published an improved framework for causative factor analysis in land change science. LUCC-IPO started a meta-analysis of desertification cases (causes, drivers, indicators), complementing Focus 1 Office work on agricultural intensification. 2.2 Regional and thematic electronic conferences Besides day-to-day electronic activities, LUCC-IPO signed up and participated in regional and thematic electronic conferences (‘Land use change and intensification in mountain areas of Africa’, IHDP’s and IUSSP’s Population-Environment Research Network). In collaboration with the endorsed ‘Human-Environment Regional Observatory Project’ (HERO), means were were set up for virtual conferences between LUCC SSC Meetings (remote collaboration including synchronous and asynchronous conferencing, and automated Delphi). 2.3 Regional workshops LUCC-IPO participated in a Ricamare regional network workshop (Medenine, Tunisia, 2021 April 2001), It assisted in recruiting participants for the Open Symposium of the LUTEA network and the TEA Regional Committee for START (Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 28 June-1 July 2001), for the GOFC Regional Workshop on Remote Sensing of Forest Cover in Northwestern Russia and Fennoscandia (Russian Academy of Sciences, 25-27 June 2001). It collaborated with the Mountain Research Initiative (MRI) on two workshops (late 2001, early 2002) to discuss state-of-the-art research. 2.4 Focused workshops LUCC-IPO assisted chair, focus offices and/or individual SSC members in preparation and/or implementation of workshops such as the initial planning meeting of ‘Human Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems’ (HITE, 14-16 June 2001, Bern), ‘Biodiversity and Spatial complexity’ (early 2002, Giessen), ‘Land use scenarios and climate at regional scales’ (early 2002, Utrecht or Brussels), ‘Socio-economic factors and soil erosion’ (early 2002, Brussels), ‘Natural and Historical archives: soil erosion and global change’ (Firenze, 23-26 Oct 2002), ‘Linking household and remotely sensed data: Methodological and practical problems’ (3-8 January 2002, Honolulu). It contributed to several scoping workshops of IHDP’s Geoscope initiative (Weilburg, 1011 September 2001, Berlin, 25-26 October 2001) by attendance, to IHDP’s capacity building workshop on ‘Urbanisation and the transition to sustainability’ (Bonn, 3-12 June 2002) by working out rationale and securing announcement (website, newsletter, database search). 2.5 Open Science Conferences LUCC-IPO was involved in bringing together the scientific community at four major international conferences, and supported the implementation of other conferences in 2002 and 2003. 4 2.6 ‘Challenges of a Changing Earth’, Global Change Open Science Conference, Amsterdam, 1013 July 2001: agenda development (parallel and poster sessions), provision of key speaker in plenary with materials from LUCC projects, distribution of announcement, recruitment of participants, preparation of background documents, approach of potential funding agencies, publication of results (GeoJournal, several newsletters), contribution to media campaign, and active participation (parallel session talks, poster clusters). ‘Land Use/Land Cover Changes in the Period of Globalization’, Prague, 14-20 July 2001: contribution to conference rationale. ‘International Conference on Land Use/Cover Change Dynamics’, Beijing, 26-30 August 2001: representation in International Scientific Steering Committee, distribution of announcement, recruitment of participants, and active participation (keynote address). ‘Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research’, Rio de Janeiro, 6-8 October 2001: distribution of announcement, and recruitment of participants. ‘International Symposium on LUCC Contribution to Asian Environmental Problems’, Tokyo, 13-14 December 2001: provision of the newly established Focus 2 Office (in Japan) with digital project presentation materials to inform LUCC Japan Committee and Science Council of Japan. ‘Land Use and Land Cover Change’, Symposium at the Regional Conference of the International Geographical Union (IGU), Durban, 4-7 August 2002: contribution to session rationale. ‘Framing Land Use Dynamics’, Utrecht, 16-18 April 2003: provision of endorsement and organisation of LUCC input (scientific steering committee, database for announcement). Newsletter, reports, website, and database In the period considered, LUCC-IPO produced two newsletters sent out to ca. 2400 users: No. 6 : May 2001, 32 pp, mainly featuring endorsed research projects. No. 7 : December 2001, 16 pp, outline of priority questions for future research, and others. The newsletters are available on the website in pdf format. In the period considered, LUCC-IPO completed, gave into review and produced one research report (#4, 116 pp., ISSN 1138-7424) on the proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation. Database as well as website information (http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC), mainly ‘calendar’ and endorsed projects, were constantly updated. Currently, the database is being updated based on a query included in Newsletter #7. The LUCC website was linked to other (new) sites (e.g., CIESIN Land Use Thematic Guide, IGBP ‘science highlights’, new IGBP paragraph to announce LUCC at separate, interlinked page, etc.). Discussions were held with IHDP and IGBP secretariats to discuss database improvements, make them searcheable, shareable and more user friendly. Efforts were made to remove old links to former LUCC websites and to make the project number one under the term ‘LUCC’ in most important search engines. 2.7 Other outreach activities The necessity of organising a reduced reprint of the Implementation Strategy (in May, 160 out of 5000 copies left) was considered to be of lower importance than investment in generation and distribution of LUCC science results (research reports, special journal issues, separate prints). LUCC-IPO arranged with the editor of ‘Land Use Policy’ (Elsevier Science) a special subscription arrangement for members of the LUCC community (Euro 60, yearly). LUCC-IPO submitted a successful proposal for an Advanced Study Course (Proposal #EVK2-2001-00159, European Commission) titled ‘Modelling Land Use Change’ (MODLUC) to be held at IPO’s host university in 2003. The one-week course, including field trips and a policy panel, is to bring together 40 postgraduate students and 15 key lecturers to advance the understanding of modelling of land-use change processes. LUCC-IPO started to rework and update CIESIN’s web-based Land Use and Global Environmental Change thematic guide (http://www.ciesin.org/TG/LU/LU-home.html): introductory 5 overview, bibliography, deforestation, desertification. The guide of Columbia University's Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) provides access to selected scientific articles, grouped under a series of overview pieces which provide synopses of current issues in the field. In the period considered, LUCC-IPO received several visits from members of the SSC, regional networks, endorsed research projects, partner projects (GCTE, IDGEC), research organisations and university departments worldwide. LUCC-IPO constantly answered or forwarded requests for mainly project materials and research cooperations. LUCC-IPO provided data for IHDP’s South Participation Inventory. Members of the LUCC community that are listed in the database were categorized per country, and per workshop at which they participated. The LUCC database does not contain any explicit information on gender, so the latter could not be provided. 3 Regional Networks & Endorsed Projects 3.1 Regional Networks In the period considered, LUCC-IPO assisted, mainly in collaboration with START, to establish two new regional networks (West Africa, Aral Sea Basin) and to implement others (Mediterranean, Indian coastal regions). It initiated the currently 10 networks in operation to regularly report in the newsletter and assistend, in collaboration with IGBP and IHDP secretariats, to recruit participants for Open Science Conference: LUCC-IPO, together with Focus 1 Office, communicated with ‘The South East Asia Regional Committee’ (SARCS) which committed itself to further investigate coding robustness and reliablity of LCCS (see 1.4). LUCC-IPO provided assistance for ‘Coastal Areas and LUCC in the Indian sub-continental context’ (COSTED) for championing leadership in the region and gave direction for conceptualising science projects with an immediate possibility to organise training workshops around LUCC themes, especially capacity building in LUCC modelling. LUCC-IPO attended the ‘Ricamare’ workshop and provided assistance for the linkage between land-use changes and land degradation problems. LUCC-IPO provided a letter of support to the ‘Mountain Research Initiative’ (MRI) for a proposal to the U.S. National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Biocomplexity in the Environment Program, Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH), called ‘Global Change, Globalization and the Vulnerability of Mountain Systems’. 3.2 Endorsed Projects In the period considered, nine projects were newly endorsed, while four project applications were not taken into consideration. The total of LUCC endorsed projects during the period considered increased from 30 to 39: ‘Population and Environment in the U.S. Great Plains’: Myron P. Gutmann (Principal Investigator & Project Coordinator), The University of Texas at Austin, History/Population Research Center, United States of America: examination of the demographic experience of the grasslands of the Great Plains and of changes in the environment since 1880, drawing from a model of recursive change (relevant to Focus 1 and 3). ‘How does land use change affect the vulnerability of people and places to climate variation and change? The Human-Environment Regional Observatory Project (HERO)’: Brenton M. Yarnal (principal co-ordinator), The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Geography, United States of America: relevant for science question #6 (LUCC Implementation Strategy) and provision of case studies under Focus 1 to understand human-environment interactions at 6 local and small regional scales in the context of infrastructure development to monitor them (development of research protocols and data standards). ‘Land-use change and socio-economic metabolism’: Helmut Haberl (Principal Investigator & Project Coordinator), Universities of Innsbruck, Klagenfurt & Vienna, Institute for Interdisciplinary Research, Social Ecology Department, Austria: relevant to better understand the links between land use/cover change and changes in socio-economic metabolism as a driving force, closely relates to Focus 1 issues, and collaborator in IHDP’s GeoScope project. FAO’s Africover Project: John Latham (principal contact), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Environment and Natural Resources Service (SDRN), Italy: the project made possible FAO’s Land Cover Classification System (LCCS) and provides a study relevant under Focus 2 (see 1.4). ‘ACCLERATES – Assessing Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Ecosystems : From Regional Analysis to the European Scale’: Mark D. Rounsevell (Project Leader), University of Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium: relevant to understand the rate, extent and dynamics of agricultural land use change arising from climate, policy and socio-economic pressures, the impact of agricultural land use and climate change on biological resources, and agroecosystem vulnerability reflecting both the sensitivity to change and capacity to adapt, in the context of the relationship between the response of agroecosystems to environmental change and the management of biological resources in Europe (relates closely to Focus 3 issues). ‘Land-use and land-cover change in Africa and SE-Asia – Its causes and implications’: Anette Reenberg (Principal Investigator), Institute of Geography, University of Copenhagen, Denmark: departamental research for studies on land use system in the tropics, i.e., land use and land cover dynamics and their relation to human resource management, landscape structures, biogeochemical cycles and water resource managment (studies relevant for Focus 1). ‘Land Use Thematic Guide’ (http://www.ciesin.org/TG/LU/LU-home.html): Center for International Earth Science Information Network, CIESIN, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States of America: a web-based thematic guide addressing various topics of land use and human dimensions of global environmental change; the guides provide access to selected scientific articles, grouped under a series of overview pieces which provide synopses of current issues in the field (relevant for Focus 1 to 3). ‘Networks in the Delta – Integrated Research Programme into the Dynamics and Management of Spatial Interactions between Socio-economic and Environmental Systems in Northwest Europe’: Martin Dijst and Paul Schot (Project Co-ordinators), Utrecht University, The Netherlands: studies relevant to enlarge the insight into possible and desirable changes in land use for sustainable development, to the development of a decision support system of models and scenarios enabling communication of changes in land use towards policy makers and stakeholders, and to the development of a generic theoretical and methodological framework as a scientific basis for interactive (participatory) integrated physical planning and related legislature at the regional/sub-regional level of the Northwest European Delta Region. ‘Contemporary Process of Land Use/Cover Change and its Environmental Effects in China’ (PLUCEE): Xiubin Li (Project Leader), Chinese Academy of Sciences, China: studies relevant (i) to understand the main characteristics, driving forces and functioning mechanisms of land use change (in those areas of China which experienced rapid change in the past 20 years), (ii) to appraise the impacts of land use/cover change on water cycle, silt and nutrient erosion (in medium-scale river basins), and (iii) to clarify the relation of these changes to important resources and environmental issues with a view of providing advice for policy-making under the terms of sustainable development (6 case studies from East and West China, including systematic modelling). LUCC-IPO raised awareness of Open Science Conferences among the projects, handed out core LUCC science publications to project leaders, co-organized (endorsed) workshops and conferences, and recruited key researchers for LUC-IPO training courses (land use change modelling). 4 Transition to Land Change Science 7 It was recommended at the LUCC Scientific Steering Committee Meeting in Wavre, Belgium, in January – and confirmed by IGBP and IHDP SCs - that the project will continue in its present form until 2005, but is given as an additional responsibility the task of interacting more closely with planning groups in the transition to IGBP II (running from 2003 onwards). For the latter purpose, the following activities were carried out in the period considered: LUCC-SSC responded to the research agenda of the Terrestrial Futures document (June 2000) by commenting major research questions there and establishing a task force bridging old and new LUCC science questions. It is LUCC’s understanding that the jointly sponsored project per se, settled at the interface of natural and social sciences, already constitutes a model for integration of various research communities. In order to better integrate the various social/natural science LUCC perspectives at an early stage, and to attract and include (younger, mainly social) scientists in the framing of activities from the beginning, LUCC-IPO produced a list of eleven key persons for transition activities, through database research and in collaboration with LUCC-SSC and IGBP/IHDP secretariats. A position paper (6 pp) was produced that was meant to help co-develop with other global change communities a set of jointly shared science questions in the process of transition (a. LUCC science in continuation until 2005: what have we achieved so far?, priority questions for future research, b. Research in the transition process: fundamental principles, multiple scale systems approach, major concepts, methodological issues, c. Programmatics). LUCC scientists, including some from the ‘young generation’, were proposed as contributors to the planning of research in the land-atmosphere domain as part of IGBP II (project co-chair, scoping members). To foster closer collaboration between LUCC and GCTE scientists, joint COST actions were started leading to the following workshops: ‘Biodiversity and Spatial complexity’ (early 2002, Giessen), ‘Land use scenarios and climate at regional scales’ (early 2002, Utrecht or Brussels), ‘Socio-economic factors and soil erosion’ (early 2002, Brussels), ‘Natural and Historical archives: soil erosion and global change’ (Firenze, 23-26 Oct 2002). Again, to foster closer collaboration between LUCC and GCTE scientists, three joint projects were implemented: integrated fire research (paper for Science or Ecosystems under preparation), landscape fragmentation and biodiversity, and desertification. Again, to foster closer collaboration in the field of land use change and terrestrial ecology, invitations for a LUCC synthesis workshop (April 2002) on linking causes/drivers of land change with rates/patterns were extended beyond LUCC-SSC members to five GCTE-related scientists. 5 Meetings at which Project was Presented (LUCC-IPO staff, chair) 16th Science Committee (SC) Meeting of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) -Chiang Mai, Thailand, 20-24 February 2001. RICAMARE Network on land-use changes and water resources in the Mediterranean region, Medenine, IRA Workshop, 20-21 April 2001. ‘Land use, land cover – From local, empirical case studies to models of global environmental change’, Lecture, Faculty of Earth Sciences Lecture Series, University of Bonn, 16 May 2001. ‘Hotspots and critical regions: Defining and mapping vulnerability’, International Workshop on Vulnerability and Global Environmental Change, Stockholm Environment Institute, 17-19 May 2001. ‘ What are the key dimensions of desertification at the international scale?’, Rapporteur, Dahlem Workshop on ‘An integrated assessment of the ecological, meteorological and human dimensions of global desertification’, Free University, Berlin, 10-15 June 2001. ‘Pathways of data integration: Lessons from the LUCC Project’, Short presentation & plenary group moderation, ‘Towards the development of a Geoscope’, German National Committee on Global Change Research & Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschat (DFG), Weilburg an der Lahn, 10-11 September 2001. 8 6 ‘Progress and priority tasks in land-use/cover change research: What have we learned so far?’, Keynote Lecture, International Conference on Land Use/Cover Change Dynamics, Beijing Normal University & National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing, 24-26 August 2001. ‘Regional sampling and comparative case studies: The LUCC approach’, Short presentation & break-out group moderation, ‘A Sustainability Geoscope: Observing, Understanding and Managing the Sustainability Transition’, International conference & workshop, German National Committee on Global Change Research & Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Berlin, 25-26 October 2001. ‘Land-use changes : patterns and processes’, International conference on Carbon Sinks and Biodiversity, Belgian Presidency of the European Union, Namur, 24-26 Octobre 2001. ‘Drivers and patterns of land-use change in tropical regions’, International workshop ‘Tropical agriculture in transition : Opportunities for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions’, Center for Development Research (ZEF), Bonn, 7-9 Novembre 2001. ‘Land-use changes as part of global change’, Joint Research Center information day in Belgium, European Commission, Brussels, 6 December 2001. Publications (science publications only as released from press in 2001, mentioning LUCC project and/or carrying LUCC logo; no newsletter contributions; in alphabetical order; LUCC-SSC members in bold) Geist HJ, Lambin EF (2001): What drives tropical deforestation? A meta-analysis of proximate and underlying causes of deforestation based on subnational case study evidence (= LUCC Report Series; 4). – LUCC International Project Office, University of Louvain: Louvain-laNeuve, 116 pp. Haberl H, Batterbury S, Moran E (2001) (Guest Editors, Special Issue): Using and shaping the Land, Land Use Policy, Vol. 18 (1), 78 pp. Klein Goldewijk K (2001): Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: the HYDE database. - Global Biogeochemical Cycles. Vol 15 (2), 417-434. Lambin EF, Turner BL II, Geist HJ, Agbola S, Angelsen A, Bruce JW, Coomes O, Dirzo R, Fischer G, Folke C, George PS, Homewood K, Imbernon J, Leemans R, Li X, Moran EF, Mortimore M, Ramakrishnan PS, Richards JF, Skånes H, Steffen W, Stone GD, Svedin U, Veldkamp T, Vogel C, Xu J. (2001): The causes of land-use and land-cover change - Moving beyond the myths. - Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions. Vol. 11 (4), 261-269. McConnell, W (2001): Land Use and Cover Change. – In: Smelser N, Bates P (eds): The International Encyclopedia of the Social and Behavioral Sciences. - Elsevier Science: Oxford. McConnel WJ, Moran EF (eds) (2001): Meeting in the Middle – The Challenge of Meso-Level Integration. An International Workshop, October 17-20, 2000, Ispra, Italy (= LUCC Report Series; 5). – LUCC Focus 1 Office, Indiana University: Bloomington, 68 pp. Moran E (2001): Progress in the Last Ten Years in the Study of Land Use/Cover Change and the Outlook for the Next Decade. In: Diekman A, Dietz T, Jaeger CC, Rosa EA (eds): Human Dimensions of Global Change. MIT Press: Cambridge. Moran EF, Brondízio ES, McCracken SD (2001): Trajectories of Land Use - Soils, Succession, and Crop Choice. - In: Wood C et al. (eds): Patterns and Processes of Land Use and Forest Change in the Amazon. - University of Florida Press: Gainesville. Turner BL II (2001): Toward Integrated Land-Change Science - Advances in 1.5 Decades of Sustained International Research on Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. – In: Steffen W (ed): Advances in Global Environmental Change Research. – Springer Verlag: Berlin, New York. 9 Veldkamp A, Lambin E (2001) (Guest Editors, Special Issue): Predicting land-use change. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, Vol. 85 (1-3), 292 pp. Veldkamp A, Kok K, G.H.J. De Koning GHJ, Schoorl JM, Sonneveld MPW, Verburg PH (2001): Multi-Scale system approaches in agronomic research at the landscape level. - Soil And Tillage Research, Vol. 58, 129-140. Verburg PH, de Koning GHJ, Kok K, Veldkamp A, Priess J (2001): The CLUE modelling framework: an integrated model for the analysis of land use change. – In: Singh RB, Fox J, Himiyama Y (eds): Land Use and Cover Change Science. - Pub. Inc.: Tokyo, 11- 25. Veldkamp A, Kok K, de Koning GHJ, Verburg PH, Priess J, Bergsma AR (2001): The need for multi-scale approaches in spatial specific land use change modelling. - Environmental Modeling and Assessment, Vol. 6, 111-121. 10