ILLINOIS MSA Indices & Forecast Release data Issue www.real.illinois.edu 4/15/2016 May 2004 / Feb 2016 2016.4 Note: Values shown on the “1 Year” forecast represent a pessimistic – optimistic scenario. For estimated values please see Appendix. Comparing MSAs Indices with Chicago Indices 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 -20.00 -40.00 -60.00 -80.00 Bloomington 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Champaign Davenport Decatur Peoria Rockford Springfield Kankakee *Values below (above) zero indicate that an MSA is performing less well (better) than Chicago. From early 2007 to early 2009, all MSAs performed better than Chicago. However, from Mid-2009 to present, MSAs generally performed less well than Chicago except for Bloomington-Normal. According to the forecast for February 2017, Bloomington-Normal, Champaign-UrbanaRantoul, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline, Decatur, Rockford and Kankakee are likely to perform less well over this period than Chicago. All the other MSAs will compare favorably to Chicago. Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 4/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 1 Bloomington-Normal (Reference Month – February 2016) Current 93.21 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Historical 102.66 113.80 116.53 Forecast 90.33 80.86 63.84 ~ 87.41 Bloomington - Normal MSA 130.00 120.00 110.00 100.00 B-N Chicago 90.00 Other MSAs 80.00 70.00 Nov-16 Jan-16 Jun-16 Aug-15 Mar-15 Oct-14 May-14 Jul-13 Dec-13 Feb-13 Apr-12 Sep-12 Nov-11 Jan-11 Jun-11 Aug-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 May-09 Jul-08 Dec-08 Feb-08 Apr-07 Sep-07 Nov-06 Jan-06 Jun-06 Aug-05 Oct-04 Mar-05 May-04 60.00 Bloomington-Normal MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate: Compared to last month, Bloomington-Normal remained at the 7th place of the rank. In the 12 month growth league table Bloomington-Normal remained at the 10th place of the rank. Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 4/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 2 Champaign-Urbana (Reference Month – February 2016) Current 109.39 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Historical 110.72 110.99 91.64 Forecast 106.85 97.17 42.30 ~ 52.38 Champaign - Urbana MSA 130.00 120.00 110.00 100.00 90.00 C-U Chicago 80.00 Other MSAs 70.00 60.00 50.00 Nov-16 Jan-16 Jun-16 Aug-15 Oct-14 Mar-15 May-14 Jul-13 Dec-13 Feb-13 Apr-12 Sep-12 Nov-11 Jan-11 Jun-11 Aug-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 May-09 Jul-08 Dec-08 Feb-08 Apr-07 Sep-07 Nov-06 Jan-06 Jun-06 Aug-05 Oct-04 Mar-05 May-04 40.00 Champaign- Urbana MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate: Compared to last month, Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul moved up 3 positions reaching the 2nd place of the rank. In the 12-month growth league table, Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul moved up 1 position reaching the 4th place of the rank. Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 4/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 3 Davenport-Rock Island-Moline (Reference Month – February 2016) Current 96.21 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Historical 97.78 100.67 107.63 Forecast 94.41 89.66 70.76 ~ 90.85 Davenport - Rock Island - Moline MSA 120.00 110.00 100.00 D-RI-M 90.00 Chicago Other MSAs 80.00 70.00 Nov-16 Jan-16 Jun-16 Aug-15 Mar-15 Oct-14 May-14 Jul-13 Dec-13 Feb-13 Apr-12 Sep-12 Nov-11 Jan-11 Jun-11 Aug-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 May-09 Jul-08 Dec-08 Feb-08 Apr-07 Sep-07 Nov-06 Jan-06 Jun-06 Aug-05 Oct-04 Mar-05 May-04 60.00 Davenport – Rock Island–Moline MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate: Compared to last month, Davenport-Rock Island-Moline moved down 6 positions reaching the 9th place of the rank. In the 12-month growth league table, Davenport – Rock Island – Moline remained at the 9th place of the rank. Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 4/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 4 Decatur (Reference Month – February 2016) Current 104.00 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Historical 107.29 111.89 109.55 Forecast 100.65 94.87 90.33 ~ 91.17 Decatur MSA 130.00 120.00 110.00 Decatur 100.00 Chicago Other MSAs 90.00 80.00 Nov-16 Jan-16 Jun-16 Aug-15 Mar-15 Oct-14 May-14 Jul-13 Dec-13 Feb-13 Apr-12 Sep-12 Nov-11 Jan-11 Jun-11 Aug-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 May-09 Jul-08 Dec-08 Feb-08 Apr-07 Sep-07 Nov-06 Jan-06 Jun-06 Aug-05 Oct-04 Mar-05 May-04 70.00 Decatur MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate Compared to the previous month, Decatur moved up 2 positions reaching the 8th place of the rank. In the 12 months growth league table, Decatur moved down 1 position reaching the 8th place of the rank. Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 4/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 5 Kankakee - Bradley (Reference Month – February 2016) Current 104.07 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Historical 108.24 113.50 120.81 Forecast 100.06 95.03 78.83 ~ 99.02 Kankakee - Bradley MSA 140.00 130.00 120.00 110.00 K-B 100.00 Chicago Other MSAs 90.00 80.00 70.00 Nov-16 Jan-16 Jun-16 Aug-15 Mar-15 Oct-14 May-14 Jul-13 Dec-13 Feb-13 Apr-12 Sep-12 Nov-11 Jan-11 Jun-11 Aug-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 May-09 Jul-08 Dec-08 Feb-08 Apr-07 Sep-07 Nov-06 Jan-06 Jun-06 Aug-05 Oct-04 Mar-05 May-04 60.00 Kankakee - Bradley MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate Kankakee – Bradley moved up 7 positions reaching the 1st place of the monthly performance rank table. In the 12-month growth league table, Kankakee– Bradley remained at the 3rd place of the rank. Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 4/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 6 Peoria (Reference Month – February 2016) Current 92.17 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Historical 94.12 97.55 98.47 Forecast 89.99 86.32 95.22 ~ 126.04 Peoria MSA 140.00 130.00 120.00 110.00 Peoria 100.00 Chicago Other MSAs 90.00 80.00 70.00 Nov-16 Jan-16 Jun-16 Aug-15 Oct-14 Mar-15 May-14 Jul-13 Dec-13 Feb-13 Apr-12 Sep-12 Nov-11 Jan-11 Jun-11 Aug-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 May-09 Jul-08 Dec-08 Feb-08 Apr-07 Sep-07 Nov-06 Jan-06 Jun-06 Aug-05 Oct-04 Mar-05 May-04 60.00 Peoria MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate Compared to last month, Peoria moved up 1 position reaching the 5th place of the rank. In the 12-month growth league table, Peoria moved up 1 position reaching the 7th place of the rank. Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 4/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 7 Rockford (Reference Month – February 2016) Current 103.49 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Historical 104.72 106.25 99.56 Forecast 102.10 99.44 87.30 ~ 103.52 Rockford MSA 140.00 130.00 120.00 110.00 Rockford 100.00 Chicago Other MSAs 90.00 80.00 70.00 Nov-16 Jan-16 Jun-16 Aug-15 Mar-15 Oct-14 May-14 Jul-13 Dec-13 Feb-13 Apr-12 Sep-12 Nov-11 Jan-11 Jun-11 Aug-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 May-09 Jul-08 Dec-08 Feb-08 Apr-07 Sep-07 Nov-06 Jan-06 Jun-06 Aug-05 Oct-04 Mar-05 May-04 60.00 Rockford MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate Compared to last month, Rockford moved down 8 positions reaching the 10th place of the rank. In the 12-month growth league table, Rockford remained at the 2nd place of the rank. Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 4/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 8 Springfield (Reference Month – February 2016) Current 111.51 1 Month 3 Month 1 Year Historical 119.43 129.84 110.99 Forecast 103.53 91.46 90.59 ~ 120.72 Springfield MSA 140.00 130.00 120.00 110.00 Springfield 100.00 Chicago Other MSAs 90.00 80.00 70.00 Nov-16 Jan-16 Jun-16 Aug-15 Mar-15 Oct-14 May-14 Jul-13 Dec-13 Feb-13 Apr-12 Sep-12 Nov-11 Jan-11 Jun-11 Aug-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 May-09 Jul-08 Dec-08 Feb-08 Apr-07 Sep-07 Nov-06 Jan-06 Jun-06 Aug-05 Oct-04 Mar-05 May-04 60.00 Springfield MSA League: Non-Farm Employment Growth Rate Compared to last month, Springfield moved down 6 positions reaching the 9th place of the rank. In the 12-month growth league table, Springfield moved down 3 positions reaching the 6th place of the rank. Notes: MSA Indices series are available in the appendix Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 4/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 9 Appendix May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 B-N 87.85 87.11 86.55 86.25 86.02 85.73 85.31 85.00 85.03 86.05 88.17 91.00 93.65 95.76 97.68 99.20 99.96 99.81 98.98 97.57 96.07 94.65 93.90 93.45 92.87 92.31 91.96 91.85 91.80 92.09 92.84 93.85 95.01 95.98 96.79 97.53 98.09 98.32 97.94 97.08 96.07 94.93 94.04 93.81 C-U 99.82 100.25 100.61 101.03 101.64 102.47 103.06 103.17 102.53 101.82 101.21 100.65 100.41 100.54 100.78 101.26 102.07 103.36 104.50 105.06 105.22 105.22 105.19 105.42 105.93 106.96 108.58 110.84 113.65 116.80 119.67 121.43 121.79 120.87 119.17 116.92 114.88 113.29 112.19 111.75 112.21 113.57 115.42 117.09 Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast D-RI-M 91.99 92.45 92.98 93.63 94.68 95.97 97.41 98.89 99.99 100.84 101.50 102.19 102.80 103.38 104.06 104.66 105.29 105.73 106.16 106.84 107.56 108.11 108.45 108.69 109.10 109.48 109.37 109.51 110.28 111.60 112.79 112.85 112.34 111.81 111.63 111.89 112.62 113.61 114.55 115.14 115.02 114.71 114.80 115.33 Decatur 97.13 94.74 92.49 90.54 89.01 87.92 87.36 87.22 87.13 86.98 86.86 86.61 86.26 85.78 85.01 83.99 82.97 82.32 82.07 81.95 81.85 81.88 82.45 83.40 84.54 85.51 86.13 86.32 86.18 85.95 85.90 86.08 86.49 87.10 87.75 88.43 89.17 90.02 90.91 91.77 92.56 93.37 94.00 94.33 Peoria 90.48 90.95 91.32 91.34 91.31 91.28 91.55 92.69 94.70 97.14 99.58 101.69 103.20 104.19 104.70 104.88 104.80 104.59 104.47 104.69 105.44 106.45 107.28 107.87 108.51 109.19 109.90 110.90 112.30 113.94 115.84 117.78 119.22 119.89 120.13 120.20 120.30 120.24 119.97 119.57 119.42 119.71 120.20 120.68 release 4/15/2014 Rockford 100.56 101.43 102.29 102.94 103.33 103.50 103.65 103.92 104.29 104.73 105.23 105.79 106.36 106.84 107.14 107.36 107.60 107.94 108.39 109.02 109.77 110.52 111.21 111.90 112.59 113.22 113.70 114.10 114.53 115.04 115.67 116.50 117.41 118.33 119.24 119.92 120.35 120.39 120.08 119.54 118.88 118.18 117.58 116.95 Springfield 93.67 93.77 93.79 93.41 92.71 92.35 92.47 93.07 94.06 95.42 97.11 98.89 100.36 101.51 102.26 102.41 101.86 101.11 100.32 99.81 99.67 99.79 99.93 99.87 99.61 98.91 97.64 95.94 93.88 92.13 91.12 90.93 91.49 92.52 93.78 94.62 94.99 94.73 93.83 92.78 91.94 91.64 91.98 92.72 K-B 93.83 91.96 90.10 88.45 87.23 86.63 86.49 86.58 86.83 87.47 88.32 89.20 90.03 90.56 90.87 91.24 91.96 93.00 94.67 96.80 98.98 100.30 100.59 100.19 99.62 99.07 98.45 98.02 97.86 97.93 98.12 98.60 99.21 99.97 100.92 101.81 102.50 102.84 102.83 102.89 103.40 104.44 105.36 105.62 www.real.illinois.edu page 10 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 94.38 95.27 96.33 97.53 98.58 99.45 100.46 101.28 101.42 100.80 99.79 98.42 96.77 94.64 92.37 90.62 89.56 89.07 89.01 89.25 89.80 90.78 92.08 93.69 94.75 95.12 95.19 95.09 94.69 94.14 93.70 93.68 94.29 95.24 96.07 96.61 97.11 97.40 96.70 95.80 95.28 95.37 95.84 96.61 97.63 98.95 100.38 118.16 118.48 118.05 117.24 116.23 115.23 114.32 113.44 112.18 110.31 108.30 106.39 104.45 102.69 100.71 98.75 97.27 96.10 95.14 94.38 93.59 92.76 91.78 90.83 89.95 89.61 90.27 91.61 93.00 94.18 94.88 94.71 93.96 92.71 91.22 89.58 88.26 87.12 86.45 86.15 86.30 86.74 87.42 87.99 88.27 88.23 88.30 Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast 116.08 116.64 116.84 116.87 116.75 116.42 115.96 115.34 114.47 113.06 111.09 108.55 105.29 101.45 97.45 93.89 90.82 88.30 86.48 85.37 85.02 85.00 85.00 84.86 84.59 84.35 84.28 84.14 83.79 83.49 83.47 83.60 83.87 84.19 84.49 85.02 85.78 86.71 87.83 89.03 89.89 90.43 90.69 90.78 90.92 91.08 91.26 94.54 94.81 95.22 95.85 96.68 97.69 98.80 99.94 101.24 102.54 103.74 104.82 105.87 106.71 106.71 106.16 105.47 104.78 104.21 103.99 104.11 104.41 104.80 105.13 105.04 104.44 103.54 102.52 101.69 101.17 101.02 100.94 100.97 100.98 100.92 101.10 101.95 103.43 104.94 106.27 107.20 107.71 108.00 108.48 109.02 109.50 109.91 120.91 120.53 119.62 118.61 117.90 117.41 117.25 117.35 117.30 116.65 115.04 112.35 108.64 104.16 99.32 95.29 92.39 90.36 89.10 88.39 88.03 87.89 88.03 88.31 88.28 88.26 89.02 90.17 91.23 92.12 92.70 93.05 93.42 93.82 93.78 93.00 91.67 90.40 89.48 89.08 89.13 89.79 90.97 92.33 93.28 93.95 94.68 release 4/15/2014 116.30 115.54 114.64 113.50 112.19 110.85 109.56 108.23 106.65 104.72 102.36 99.65 96.78 94.01 91.55 89.55 88.10 87.21 86.81 86.74 86.82 86.87 86.83 86.80 86.81 87.06 87.55 88.09 88.60 89.05 89.38 89.63 89.89 90.23 90.65 90.98 91.13 90.96 90.54 89.97 89.38 88.89 88.62 88.47 88.49 88.67 88.93 93.51 94.01 94.10 93.98 93.88 93.62 93.26 92.62 91.67 90.64 89.57 88.44 87.39 86.28 85.15 84.05 83.27 82.82 82.61 82.69 83.01 83.72 84.75 85.95 87.32 88.85 90.42 91.99 93.52 95.14 96.92 98.59 100.23 101.78 103.18 104.22 105.02 105.81 106.58 107.36 107.83 108.25 108.93 109.91 111.16 112.23 113.11 105.16 104.08 103.25 102.79 102.84 102.93 102.96 102.89 102.71 101.77 99.58 96.85 94.13 91.82 90.03 88.76 88.00 87.54 87.12 86.61 85.90 85.11 84.91 85.29 86.26 87.74 89.08 90.21 90.72 91.21 91.81 92.47 92.95 93.48 93.61 93.04 92.21 91.37 90.82 90.87 91.33 92.13 93.34 94.81 96.28 97.54 98.50 www.real.illinois.edu page 11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 July-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 101.65 102.13 102.05 101.65 100.94 100.59 100.55 100.44 100.47 101.01 101.77 102.59 103.45 104.31 105.27 106.10 106.88 107.84 108.87 109.60 110.15 110.49 110.53 110.47 110.43 110.78 111.62 112.53 113.18 113.99 115.10 116.53 118.06 119.62 121.51 123.21 124.60 125.83 127.13 128.24 128.48 127.80 126.35 124.37 122.08 119.71 117.33 89.03 90.42 91.92 93.26 94.30 95.04 95.42 95.35 95.09 94.63 93.99 92.97 92.05 91.64 92.02 92.60 93.02 92.93 92.39 91.48 90.28 88.70 87.02 85.79 85.23 85.43 85.97 87.09 88.68 90.01 90.89 91.64 92.50 93.77 95.43 97.69 100.54 103.65 106.40 108.19 109.23 109.80 110.06 110.21 110.24 110.30 110.59 Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast 91.53 92.21 93.30 94.45 95.27 95.81 96.11 96.23 96.30 96.42 96.56 96.63 96.79 96.98 96.93 96.55 95.97 95.50 95.50 95.81 96.30 97.06 97.86 98.71 99.56 100.56 101.87 103.34 104.44 105.37 106.46 107.63 108.37 107.81 106.91 106.17 105.88 106.09 106.61 107.30 108.18 108.95 108.82 107.94 106.49 104.71 102.70 110.12 110.24 110.20 109.98 110.13 110.26 110.24 110.06 109.73 109.25 108.66 107.99 107.40 106.79 106.50 106.54 106.82 107.26 107.69 108.09 108.67 109.28 109.88 110.40 110.85 110.88 110.65 110.56 110.26 109.89 109.63 109.55 109.58 109.72 109.58 109.28 108.86 108.69 108.56 108.54 108.61 108.74 109.24 110.26 111.40 112.26 112.53 95.68 97.12 98.59 99.85 100.58 100.76 100.72 100.55 99.92 98.82 97.31 95.73 94.04 92.62 91.95 91.53 91.02 90.69 90.46 90.12 89.75 89.54 89.55 89.90 90.42 91.31 92.55 93.90 95.35 96.63 97.67 98.47 99.07 99.47 99.76 99.77 99.72 99.78 100.06 100.67 101.19 101.30 100.93 100.42 99.89 99.53 98.84 release 4/15/2014 89.24 89.63 90.06 90.46 90.76 90.89 90.96 91.02 91.09 91.26 91.55 92.00 92.59 93.21 93.69 93.86 93.81 93.77 93.83 93.95 94.10 94.35 94.66 95.03 95.35 95.71 96.21 96.77 97.45 98.19 98.90 99.56 100.08 100.42 100.60 100.63 100.61 100.64 100.77 101.18 101.97 102.82 103.60 104.35 105.16 105.84 106.26 113.93 114.58 114.71 114.08 112.48 110.11 107.57 105.30 103.78 103.04 102.72 102.61 102.25 101.38 100.06 98.35 97.06 96.73 97.47 98.84 100.51 102.24 103.46 103.83 103.54 102.95 102.49 102.92 104.42 106.61 108.89 110.99 112.75 113.99 114.45 114.08 113.21 112.13 111.42 111.48 112.40 114.08 116.51 119.88 123.93 128.01 130.35 99.22 99.50 99.29 99.02 98.77 98.44 98.16 98.22 98.49 99.22 100.37 101.65 102.98 104.25 105.46 106.51 107.32 108.17 109.17 110.29 111.47 112.41 113.12 113.97 114.95 115.98 117.08 118.07 118.65 119.19 120.00 120.81 120.84 119.85 118.51 117.56 117.18 117.38 118.01 118.62 119.04 119.07 118.44 117.34 116.13 115.03 114.27 www.real.illinois.edu page 12 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 June-16 July-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 113.80 108.79 102.66 96.31 90.33 85.09 80.86 77.79 75.82 74.72 74.21 74.07 74.21 74.70 75.71 77.47 110.99 111.16 110.72 109.39 106.85 102.81 97.17 90.11 82.13 73.86 65.90 58.67 52.38 47.07 42.69 39.09 100.67 99.08 97.78 96.21 94.41 92.27 89.66 86.65 83.62 81.05 79.36 78.74 79.13 80.18 81.41 82.35 111.89 110.14 107.29 104.00 100.65 97.55 94.87 92.64 90.88 89.63 88.97 88.94 89.55 90.75 92.43 94.48 97.55 95.86 94.12 92.17 89.99 87.87 86.32 85.79 86.49 88.51 91.83 96.43 102.34 109.55 118.04 127.67 106.25 105.69 104.72 103.49 102.10 100.70 99.44 98.38 97.54 96.87 96.30 95.80 95.37 95.06 94.93 95.04 129.84 125.97 119.43 111.51 103.53 96.60 91.46 88.44 87.55 88.62 91.33 95.25 99.85 104.57 108.89 112.36 113.50 111.56 108.24 104.07 100.06 96.96 95.03 94.03 93.50 92.92 92.03 90.81 89.50 88.35 87.51 86.97 Notes B-N=Bloomington-Normal C-U=ChampaignUrbana K-B= KankakeeBradley D-RI-M=Davenport-Rock Island-Moline Illinois MSA Indices & Forecast release 4/15/2014 www.real.illinois.edu page 13