FY14 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee October 2, 2013 FY14 August Caseload Review Income Eligible: The FY14 Spending Plan has been approved and EEC will begin to implement the process to backfill attrition. The objective is to offer services using vouchers for approximately 3200 children. The allocation to each CCRR has been proportionally distributed by region in relation to the number of children on the waitlist by region. It is expected that each CCRR will manage and seek to fill continuously its allotted vouchers throughout the fiscal year beginning October 1, 2013. CCRRs are required to track and report all placements in each week. The following assumptions have been built into the forecast: The forecast will continue to include the potential transfer for the projected $2.4M DTA deficiency. Open access to roughly 900 children in October for the Income Eligible account (3000-4060) and 2300 children for the Waitlist Remediation account (3000-4070). Backfill attrition related to the 3200 children and the 625 sibling and military vouchers made available in FY2013. $700,000 from the Waitlist Remediation account will be used for additional administrative costs incurred by the CCRRs. The voucher allotment and distribution of the $700k by CCRR is located on page 9 of presentation. 2 FY14 August Caseload Review 3 DTA-Related Caseload: The FY14 Spending Plan was prepared prior to the receipt of actual FY14 spending reports; we projected at the time a deficiency in DTA of $2.4M. Last month we reported that preliminary numbers from July suggested that the deficiency had grown to $4.5M. After two months of actuals the DTA forecasted deficit of $2.4M has realigned with the deficiency projected in the FY14 Spending Plan. The forecast is based on FY13 caseload trends. Throughout the year the forecast may fluctuate. DTA caseload is related to families receiving other TANF funding. Supportive Caseload: Children receiving services through the Supportive caseload account are facilitated by a direct service contract with providers. With only two months of actuals, EEC continues to forecast to the appropriation. We recently lifted local expansion limits so that more children can be served in areas where there is the capacity and the need. If the increased expansion slots do not meet the service need EEC will look to other avenues to ensure families in need will be served. FY14 Caseload Overview Summary As of August 2013 FY14 Caseload Spending August Income Eligible Contract/Flex Voucher Grants FY14 Budget $ 127,752,807 $ 86,068,659 $ 9,019,276 $ 222,840,742 $ 122,249,794 $ 86,578,848 $ 9,019,276 $ 217,847,918 $ $ $ $ $ 128,063,499 $ 130,468,528 $ (2,405,029) $ 76,323,780 $ 67,665 $ 600,000 $ 76,991,445 Total $ 427,895,686 $ 76,325,377 $ 65,115 $ 600,000 $ 76,990,492 $ 425,306,938 $ (1,597) $ 2,550 $ $ 953 $ 2,588,748 DTA Voucher Supportive Contract/Flex Voucher Grants 4 Variance Forecast vs. Budget YTD Actuals/ Forecast 5,503,013 (510,189) 4,992,824 FY 2013 Income Eligible (3000-4060) Income Eligible SFY14 Forecast as of August Actuals M o nt h P rio r M o nt h C a s e lo a d F o re c a s t C urre nt M o nt h C a s e lo a d F o re c a s t *** V a ria nc e Jun-12 32,173 32,173 N/A Jun-13 30,749 30,749 N/A Jul-13 29,862 30,480 (10) $ 19,010,720 $ 18,555,309 $ 455,410 Aug-13 30,185 30,494 192 $ 18,254,516 $ 17,160,058 $ 1,549,868 Se p-13 29,077 29,411 (339) $ 16,166,863 $ 16,273,583 $ 1,443,148 Oct-13 29,417 29,705 (596) $ 18,314,593 $ 18,380,621 $ 1,377,121 Nov-13 29,293 29,602 (574) $ 16,694,348 $ 16,731,391 $ 1,340,078 De c-13 29,284 29,569 (409) $ 17,478,747 $ 17,548,108 $ 1,270,717 Jan-14 29,592 29,908 25 $ 18,279,278 $ 18,319,170 $ 1,230,825 Fe b-14 29,602 29,882 (23) $ 16,101,087 $ 16,076,558 $ 1,255,354 M ar-14 29,524 29,806 33 $ 16,769,609 $ 16,829,886 $ 1,195,077 Apr-14 29,881 30,163 74 $ 17,545,754 $ 17,597,774 $ 1,143,057 M ay-14 29,914 30,195 74 $ 17,550,086 $ 17,510,449 $ 1,182,695 Jun-14 30,064 30,314 74 $ 17,070,966 $ 17,845,735 $ 407,925 GRANTS $ 9,019,276 $ 9,019,276 TOTAL $ 218,255,843 $ 217,847,918 P rio r M o nt h F o re c a s t P ro je c t io n 2 0 14 A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t E xpe ndit ure s FY14 Appropriation 222,840,742 Surplus /De ficie ncy 4,992,824 M th to M th F o re c a s t C ha nge - B l ue : FY 14 A ct ual / F o r ecast E xp end i t ur es * A ct ual caseload count is t he count of services rendered f or t he report ing mont h and is as of t he dat e t he f orecast was prepared. - Please not e a child could receive mult iple services. - Caseload dat a is updat ed each report ing mont h f or prior period adjust ment s and lat e billing. ** A ct ual dollars represent expendit ures billed and paid as of t he dat e t he f orecast was prepared and may include lat e billing. - Expendit ures is updat ed each report ing mont h f or prior period adjust ment s and lat e billing. - A ddit ional savings may be realised by parent f ees. 5 FY 2013 Waitlist Remediation (3000-4070) SFY14 Forecast Waitlist Remediation M o nt h P rio r M o nt h C a s e lo a d F o re c a s t C urre nt M o nt h C a s e lo a d F o re c a s t *** V a ria nc e Jul-13 N/A N/A N/A Aug-13 N/A N/A N/A Se p-13 N/A N/A N/A Oct-13 2,367 2,367 0 $ 1,725,990 $ 1,725,990 $ - Nov-13 2,367 2,367 0 $ 1,572,540 $ 1,572,540 $ - De c-13 2,367 2,367 0 $ 1,641,195 $ 1,641,195 $ - Jan-14 2,367 2,367 0 $ 1,733,406 $ 1,733,406 $ - Fe b-14 2,367 2,367 0 $ 1,521,232 $ 1,521,232 $ - M ar-14 2,367 2,367 0 $ 1,597,021 $ 1,597,021 $ - Apr-14 2,367 2,367 0 $ 1,558,175 $ 1,558,175 $ - M ay-14 2,367 2,367 0 $ 1,518,668 $ 1,518,668 $ - Jun-14 2,367 2,367 0 $ 1,431,219 $ 1,431,219 $ - $ 700,000 $ 700,000 $ 14,999,446 $ 14,999,446 CCCRR Adm in. TOTAL P rio r M o nt h F o re c a s t P ro je c t io n 2 0 14 A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t E xpe ndit ure s FY14 Appropriation 15,000,000 Surplus /De ficie ncy 554 M th to M th F o re c a s t C ha nge - B l ue : FY 14 A ct ual / F o r ecast E xp end i t ur es * A ct ual caseload count is t he count of services rendered f or t he report ing mont h and is as of t he dat e t he f orecast was prepared. - Please not e a child could receive mult iple services. - Caseload dat a is updat ed each report ing mont h f or prior period adjust ment s and lat e billing. ** A ct ual dollars represent expendit ures billed and paid as of t he dat e t he f orecast was prepared and may include lat e billing. - Expendit ures is updat ed each report ing mont h f or prior period adjust ment s and lat e billing. - A ddit ional savings may be realised by parent f ees. 6 FY 2014 DTA (3000-4050) DTA SFY14 Forecast as of August Actuals M o nt h P rio r M o nt h C a s e lo a d F o re c a s t C urre nt M o nt h C a s e lo a d F o re c a s t *** V a ria nc e Jun-12 16,913 16,913 N/A Jun-13 16,422 16,422 N/A Jul-13 15,922 16,227 305 $ 11,211,788 $ 11,376,108 $ (297,531) Aug-13 16,327 16,268 (59) $ 11,386,916 $ 10,593,842 $ (491,005) Sep-13 16,170 16,044 (126) $ 10,404,521 $ 10,232,660 $ Oct-13 16,662 16,535 (127) $ 10,756,059 $ 10,451,118 $ (549,832) Nov-13 16,796 16,659 (137) $ 11,337,980 $ 11,332,804 $ (937,450) Dec-13 16,622 16,471 (151) $ 11,291,525 $ 11,113,173 $ (1,331,258) P rio r M o nt h F o re c a s t P ro je c t io n 2 0 14 A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t E xpe ndit ure s 43,175 Jan-14 16,712 16,648 (63) $ 10,774,606 $ 10,614,789 $ (1,522,677) Feb-14 16,665 16,539 (127) $ 10,851,841 $ 10,583,946 $ (1,492,789) Mar-14 16,883 16,731 (152) $ 11,357,943 $ 11,250,500 $ (1,806,770) Apr-14 17,106 17,026 (80) $ 10,935,148 $ 10,802,649 $ (2,115,569) May-14 16,991 16,881 (110) $ 11,826,664 $ 11,561,150 $ (2,169,902) Jun-14 16,173 16,082 (91) $ 10,431,147 $ 10,555,789 $ (2,563,527) TOTAL $ 132,566,140 $ 130,468,528 FY14 Appropriation $ 128,063,499 Surplus/Deficiency $ (2,405,029) - B l ue : FY14 A ct ual / F o r ecast Exp end i t ur es * Act ual caseload count is t he count of services rendered f or t he report ing mont h and is as of t he dat e t he f orecast was prepared. - Please not e a child could receive mult iple services. - Caseload dat a is updat ed each report ing mont h f or prior period adjust ment s and lat e billing. ** Act ual dollars represent expendit ures billed and paid as of t he dat e t he f orecast was prepared and may include lat e billing. - Expendit ures is updat ed each report ing mont h f or prior period adjust ment s and lat e billing. 7 M th to M th F o re c a s t C ha nge FY 2013 Supportive (3000-3050) Supportive SFY14 Forecast as of August Actuals M o nt h P rio r M o nt h C a s e lo a d F o re c a s t C urre nt M o nt h C a s e lo a d F o re c a s t *** V a ria nc e P rio r M o nt h F o re c a s t P ro je c t io n 2 0 14 A c t ua l**/ F o re c a s t E xpe ndit ure s M th to M th F o re c a s t C ha nge Jun-12 5,979 5,979 N/A Jun-13 5,651 5,651 N/A Jul-13 5,605 5,777 172 $ 6,763,066 $ 6,308,364 $ 454,702 Aug-13 5,604 5,793 189 $ 6,486,889 $ 6,176,418 $ 765,173 Sep-13 5,942 6,019 77 $ 5,911,445 $ 5,952,045 $ 724,573 Oct-13 5,762 5,850 88 $ 6,376,317 $ 6,459,243 $ 641,647 Nov-13 6,077 6,120 43 $ 6,219,884 $ 6,308,714 $ 552,817 Dec-13 6,017 5,875 (142) $ 6,499,438 $ 6,422,154 $ 630,101 Jan-14 6,034 6,169 135 $ 6,750,637 $ 6,962,076 $ 418,662 Feb-14 6,049 5,935 (114) $ 5,928,003 $ 5,864,403 $ 482,262 Mar-14 6,044 6,228 184 $ 6,259,448 $ 6,502,507 $ 239,203 Apr-14 5,984 5,934 (50) $ 6,460,894 $ 6,443,346 $ 256,751 May-14 6,006 6,253 247 $ 6,428,953 $ 6,721,137 $ (35,433) Jun-14 6,109 6,057 (52) $ 6,306,471 $ 6,270,085 $ GRANTS $ 600,000 $ 600,000 $ 76,991,445 $ 76,990,492 FY14 Appropriation $ 76,991,445 Surplus/Deficiency $ 953 TOTAL - B l ue : FY14 A ct ual / F o r ecast Exp end i t ur es * Act ual caseload count is t he count of services rendered f or t he report ing mont h and is as of t he dat e t he f orecast was prepared. - Please not e a child could receive mult iple services. 8 - Caseload dat a is updat ed each report ing mont h f or prior period adjust ment s and lat e billing. 953 FY14 Waitlist Remediation Waitlist Remediation CCRR City Springfield Boston Fitchburg Quincy Lawrence New Bedford Hyannis CCRR 3000-4070 3000-4060 Grand Total New England Farm Workers Council 336 123 459 Action for Boston Community Development, Inc./ABCD 517 188 705 Children's Aid & Family Service, Inc. 319 117 436 Quincy Community Action Programs, Inc./QCAP 131 48 179 Community Day Care Center of Lawrence, Inc. 691 253 944 People Acting in Community Endeavors, Inc./PACE 275 101 376 Community Action Committee of Cape cod & Islands, Inc. 98 36 134 Grand Total 2,367 866 3,233 * Allocation based on children on waitlist for (all priorties) and the communites in which the families reside and the CCRRs serve. CCRR City Springfield Boston Fitchburg Quincy Lawrence New Bedford Hyannis CCRR Alllocation New England Farm Workers Council $ 100,000 Action for Boston Community Development, Inc./ABCD$ 175,000 Children's Aid & Family Service, Inc. $ 100,000 Quincy Community Action Programs, Inc./QCAP $ 50,000 Community Day Care Center of Lawrence, Inc. $ 125,000 People Acting in Community Endeavors, Inc./PACE $ 100,000 Community Action Committee of Cape cod & Islands, $Inc.50,000 Grand Total $ 700,000 Allocation Basis: * Based on baseline for staff $50K annual ** National on average casleoad staff capacity 450 *** Reviewed data provided by each CCRR for caseload capacity 9 Staff 2.00 3.50 2.00 1.00 2.50 2.00 1.00 14.00 FY13/14 Caseload By Account 10 IE July FY2013 31,358 31,522 FY2014 30,480 30,494 DTA July FY2013 16,301 16,382 FY2014 16,227 16,268 SUPP July August August August FY2013 5,959 5,904 FY2014 5,777 5,793 September October 30,609 29,883 September October 16,348 16,825 November December 29,853 29,865 November December 16,987 16,844 January 30,029 January 16,746 February 30,111 February 16,831 April May June 30,135 30,346 30,428 30,749 March April May June 17,099 17,177 17,138 16,422 Average 30,407 Average 16,758 16,247 September October 5,752 5,591 November December 5,537 5,552 January 5,658 February 5,707 March 5,674 April 5,634 May 5,592 June 5,651 Average 5,684 5,785 Total July FY2013 53,618 53,808 52,709 52,299 52,377 52,261 52,433 52,649 FY2014 52,484 52,555 - - - - - - August March September October November December January February March April May June Average 52,908 53,157 53,158 52,822 52,850 - - - - 8,753 FY13/14 IE Contract Slots - Regular and Flex Report Date 9/26/2013 8/31/2013 7/31/2013 5/27/2013 4/29/2013 3/28/2013 2/28/2013 1/31/2013 1/1/2013 11/28/2012 10/30/2012 9/28/2012 Regular Filled Regular Open Flex Filled Flex Open Flex - Over 5% Flex - Under 5% 12,438.0 12,190.0 13,052.0 13,395.0 13,567.0 13,587.0 13,195.5 13,123.0 12,783.5 12,881.5 12,751.5 12,434.0 2,361.0 2,610.0 1,748.0 1,404.0 1,267.0 1,256.0 1,292.5 1,365.0 1,706.5 1,608.5 1,738.5 2,057.0 Data Report created on September 26, 2013 Data Report created on September 26, 2013 Total Awarded Slots is 14,799 and Allowable Flex Slots is 851. 320 of the 355 additional contract slots awarded have been filled. 25 Vendors representing 28 contracts are Over 5% Flex **No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded. Total awarded slots for Homeless is 693 and Teen 519. - Homeless: filled 557, open 136 - Teen: filled 340.5, open 178.5 11 171.0 106.0 145.0 201.5 209.5 210.0 213.5 428.0 400.0 426.5 427.0 427.0 680.5 745.0 706.5 649.5 647.5 647.0 643.5 429.0 457.0 421.5 430.5 430.5 (71.5) (41.5) (71.5) (96.5) (100.0) (99.5) (98.5) (289.0) (273.0) (289.0) (303.5) (309.0) 752.0 786.5 778.0 746.0 747.5 746.5 742.0 718.0 730.0 719.5 725.0 739.5 Archived and Reactivated Children on Waitlist 21 29 11 18 175 239 112 165 50 93 1,109 1,496 400 49 800 60 Archived Families System 37 1,200 1,194 Archived Children System 64 1,600 1,619 Number of Archived and Reactivated Children on Waitlist (October 2012 thru September 2013) - Archived Children User Archived Families User 9/1/2013-9/27/2013 8/1/2013-8/31/2013 7/29/2013-7/31/2013 (excludes 7/25/13) Reactivated Children Reactivated Families Archived Month 9/1/2013-9/27/2013 8/1/2013-8/31/2013 7/29/2013-7/31/2013 (excludes 7/25/13) Total 12 Archived Children Archived Families Archived Children Archived Families Reactivated Children Reactivated Families System System User User 1,619 64 1,194 37 60 49 1,496 1,109 93 50 165 112 239 175 18 11 29 21 3,354 1,348 1,305 98 254 182 Data Report created on September 27, 2013 ** Note: User is defined as EEC, CCR&R or Contract Provider July excludes 7/25/2013; significant auto-archiving occurred, archived children system: 12,789 and archived children user: 9896 Caseload Waitlist 10/2012 - 9/2013 Priority Child of Foster Care Child of Homeless family Child of Military Personnel Child of Teen Parent Child with Special Needs Continuity of Care: Prior Year Summer Only Continuity of Care: Aging Out Continuity of Care: Approved Break in Service Continuity of Care: ARRA Continuity of Care: Geographic Relocation Continuity of Care: Homeless Contract Continuity of Care: Supportive Referral Continuity of Care: Teen Parent Contract General Priority Grandparent/Guardian Families No Priority - Other Family Member Parent with Special Needs Sibling: Contract Sibling: Voucher Summer only care N/A Grand Total 10/31/12 11/30/12 12/31/12 01/31/13 02/28/13 3/28/13 4/30/13 5/28/13 6/30/13 7/31/2013 8/30/13 9/26/13 Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total 269 276 282 288 290 285 289 299 305 169 180 194 482 520 536 558 566 576 591 609 641 454 458 487 95 101 105 116 116 123 117 90 91 68 44 43 461 477 481 489 513 507 523 525 556 365 389 423 2,056 2,117 2,198 2,234 2,291 2,355 2,442 2,524 2,615 1,776 1,893 1,922 123 120 135 149 161 164 167 173 177 139 151 163 404 409 411 402 398 399 404 414 416 205 248 274 450 442 451 470 473 482 490 523 585 484 493 530 148 146 149 148 146 141 142 143 141 51 54 60 171 182 186 198 201 207 221 222 224 145 154 161 20 25 27 29 32 31 30 37 35 29 30 29 255 269 279 288 296 308 324 352 371 256 265 284 32 32 32 28 27 28 28 29 30 16 18 22 38,268 39,470 40,431 41,722 42,588 43,315 44,861 45,970 47,737 32,881 34,266 35,725 561 541 547 565 566 576 584 609 632 349 344 350 538 282 295 314 327 338 363 393 422 357 381 411 268 805 806 805 807 807 823 840 837 436 424 426 795 654 672 714 729 771 788 804 850 737 753 792 630 788 804 833 845 870 815 792 797 544 566 542 745 899 893 919 923 958 1,024 1,074 1,233 853 856 863 888 556 541 523 518 509 501 500 495 4 6 16 46,771 48,555 49,720 51,269 52,295 53,241 55,026 Data Report created on September 26, 2013 ** Excludes Unborn children, Children 13 or older, “0” zip codes and towns out of state . 13 56,422 58,695 40,318 41,973 43,717