Arrest Patterns
Juvenile
Total Juvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Total Juvenile Arrests
140000
Arrests per 100,000 population
120000
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
White
Black
AmerInd
Asian
Proportion of Juvenile Arrests, Wisc. Total
Offense Proportions Juv
Other, Except Traffic
Wrong Place
Disorderly Conduct
Alcohol-Related
Weapons & Misc
Black
White
Other Property
Simple Assault
Theft/Larceny
Other Drug Offenses
Marijuana Possession
Serious
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Juvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average Serious Offenses
(Homicide, Agg. Assault, Sexual Assault, Robbery, Burglary, Auto Theft)
Juv Arrests - Serious
8000
7000
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
Arrests per 100,000 population
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
White
Black
AmerInd
Asian
Juvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Other Except Traffic
Juv Arrests Other Except Traffic
45000
40000
Arrests per 100,000 population
35000
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
White
Black
AmerInd
Asian
Juvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Other Drug Offenses (Excludes Marijuana possession)
Juv Drugs exc MJ arrest
2000
1800
Arrests per 100,000 population
1600
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
White
Black
AmerInd
Asian
Juvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Marijuana possession
Juv Marijuana arrest
3000
Arrests per 100,000 population
2500
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
2000
1500
1000
500
0
White
Black
AmerInd
Asian
Juvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Alcohol Offenses
Juv Alcohol arrest
9000
8000
Arrests per 100,000 population
7000
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
White
Black
AmerInd
Asian
Juvenile Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Disorderly Conduct & Simple Assault
25000
Juv Disorderly & Assault BW
arrest
Arrests per 100,000 population
20000
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
15000
10000
5000
0
Disord White
DisordBlack
Asslt White
AssltBlack
Juvenile Disparity Ratios
Wisc Total
Serious
5
Marijuana Possession
2
Other Drug Offenses
6
Theft/Larceny
3
Simple Assault
6
Other Property
2
Weapons & Misc
5
Alcohol-Related
0
Disorderly Conduct
4
Wrong Place
3
Other, Except Traffic
2
Total
3
Dane Kenosha Milwaukee Racine
7
3
4
4
4
2
1
1
12
11
3
8
5
3
2
3
12
6
3
3
3
2
1
2
5
3
3
3
1
1
0
0
7
4
3
3
3
3
2
0
3
2
2
1
4
3
2
2
Rock Waukesha WIBalance
6
9
8
2
3
4
10
3
8
3
15
7
6
21
17
2
5
5
4
16
9
1
2
3
4
7
8
4
5
6
4
3
7
4
6
7
Arrest Patterns
Adult
Proportion of Adult Arrests, Wisc. Total, Average Annual 1997-9
Offense Proportions, Adult
Other, Except Traffic
arrests
Wrong Place
Disorderly Conduct
Alcohol-Related
Weapons & Misc
Black
White
Other Property
Simple Assault
Theft/Larceny
Other Drug Offenses
Marijuana Possession
Serious
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Total Adult Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Adult, Total arrests
100000
90000
Arrests per 100,000 population
80000
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
White
Black
AmerInd
Asian
Adult Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average,Serious Offenses
(Homicide, Agg. Assault, Sexual Assault, Robbery, Burglary, Auto Theft)
Adult Serious arrests
6000
Arrests per 100,000 population
5000
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
White
Black
AmerInd
Asian
Adult Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Other Except Traffic
50000
Adult, Other Exc Traffic arrests
45000
Arrests per 100,000 population
40000
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
White
Black
AmerInd
Asian
Adult Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Other Drug Offenses (Excludes Marijuana possession)
Adult Drug not Marijuana arrests
4500
4000
Arrests per 100,000 population
3500
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
White
Black
AmerInd
Asian
Adult Arrest Rate 1997-9, Annual Average
Marijuana possession
3000
Adult Marijuana Arrests
Arrests per 100,000 population
2500
Dane
Kenosha
Milwaukee
Racine
Rock
Waukesha
WIBalance
Wisc Total
2000
1500
1000
500
0
White
Black
AmerInd
Asian
Adult Disparity Ratios
Wisc Total
Serious
12
Marijuana Possession
4
Other Drug Offenses
17
Theft/Larceny
11
Simple Assault
11
Other Property
5
Weapons & Misc
13
Alcohol-Related
1
Disorderly Conduct
7
Wrong Place
1
Other, Except Traffic
8
Total
6
Dane Kenosha Milwaukee
18
10
10
13
6
4
33
26
9
16
11
7
20
7
7
8
6
5
13
6
7
3
2
1
12
4
5
44
3
19
8
7
13
7
5
Racine
9
3
11
6
6
4
6
1
2
5
4
Rock Waukesha WIBalance
9
34
15
5
13
8
17
38
27
5
75
12
6
17
15
3
26
9
5
19
10
1
6
3
5
17
9
23
10
6
10
21
12
7
20
9
Multiple Arrests
• An arrest rate of 50,000 could mean that
50% of African Americans in a County are
arrested each year, or could be that 5% are
arrested 10 times a year.
• These imply very different images of what
“the problem” is.
• But the multiple arrest phenomenon is true
for all races, cannot explain the differences.
Place
• Much of the racial disparity in arrests arises
from WHERE police concentrate their
efforts
• Police appear to be using arrests for less
serious offenses as a way of combating
more serious offenses
• Place is not neutral with respect to race or
other social factors
• There are real community debates about
how to police high-crime places
Intensive Policing
• Parallels political repression
• Constantly asking people what they are
doing, monitoring
• Blurred boundaries between crime &
politics
• LEAA etc a response to riots & political
turmoil
Politics
• War on drugs was/is political
• Police incentives to have high drug arrests
• Political incentives to focus on small,
politically weak populations
• Economic interests in prisons: rural whites
Allocating Disparities to Arrests
& Prison/Arrest Ratios
US: Accounting for 1996 black-white difference in prison
admissions
homicide
robbery
sexual assault
arson
drug offenses
burglary, theft
fraud, stolen property
assault
public order
other/unknown
derived
Total
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
Proportion of total black-white difference
Due to arrest rate differences
Due to prison/arrest ratio
0.4
Wisconsin 1996 accounting for black white imprisonment difference
homicide
robbery
sexual assault
arson
drug
burglary, theft
fraud, stolen property
assault
public order
other/unknown
derived
Total
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
Proportion of total black-w hite difference
Due to arrest differences
due to prison/arrest ratio
Allocating Sources of Dane
County Imprisonment Disparity
Sources of Black/White Imprisonment Rate Difference:
Dane County
Other/Unkno
Derived
Public Order
Family/Child
Weapons
Possess Drug
Mfg/Sale Drug
Prostitution
Theft/Fraud
Burglary
Arson
All Robbery
Other Assault
Agg Assault
Sex Assault
Homicide
0.00
0.10
Due to arrests
0.20
Due to P/A Ratio
0.30
Sources of Black/White Imprisonment Rate Difference:
Milwaukee County
Allocating difference, Milwaukee
Other/Unknow
Derived
Public Order
Family/Child
Weapons
Possess Drug
Mfg/Sale Drug
Prostitution
Theft/Fraud
Burglary
Arson
All Robbery
Other Assault
Agg Assault
Sex Assault
Homicide
0.00
0.10
0.20
Due to arrests
0.30
0.40
Due to P/A Ratio
0.50
Conclusions of this Analysis
• There are large disparities in serious crimes
• Imprisonment disparities are largely driven
by drug and property crimes
• Milwaukee County’s disparities are mostly
arrest-driven, while Dane County’s
disparities arise from both arrests and
prison/arrest ratios
Methodological Caveats About this
Decomposition
• Prison admissions and arrests are not directly
comparable. You can be arrested multiple times
for multiple offenses. May not be convicted of the
crime you were arrested for.
• Imprisonment may not occur in the year of arrest.
• Many people are imprisoned for parole/probation
violations and are thus imprisoned for offenses
that would not, themselves, merit prison. Hard to
track in aggregate statistics.
Assessing “Bias”
• Prison/arrest ratio may not be “bias.”
• Seriousness of offense within category &
prior record affect sentence. Studies say
this accounts for much of the racial
difference in sentencing, but not all.
• Factors correlated with social standing, such
as “good family,” employed, educational
level also play a role in sentencing.
Arrests and Crime: On the Other Hand . . .
• For homicide, robbery, stranger rape, arrests track
crime fairly well. (Although there is a pattern in
some cities of “rounding up” suspects – many
more arrests for murder than murders, for
example.)
• But for drugs, theft, assault, public order offenses,
arrests are not a good proxy for actual crime.
• Arrests for less serious offenses are more a
measure of police zealousness and emphasis on
particular crimes or particular populations than a
measure of crime.
Less Serious Offenses Matter
• Arrests for minor crimes affect “prior record” –
this seems more true in Dane than Milwaukee
County
• The “drug war” is the central source of racial
disparities in new sentences in both counties
• Probation/parole system is where a lot of the
action is: relatively minor crimes or non-criminal
probation/parole violations lead to prison
admission
Policing of Minor Crimes
Matters
• Most people, even black youths, never
commit a serious crime
• Lots of research shows impact of
intervention on whether a person stays
criminal or desists
• Prison does not aid desistence. Labeling.
Segregation, Crime and Policing
Location of Crime
• Much research showed spatial concentration
of violent crime, especially homicide.
• Not clear whether it generalizes.
• Property crime (& drug sales?) may be
more often concentrated where the poor &
affluent meet
Segregation & Policing
• Some literature that segregation and intensive
policing are alternate ways of protecting the
affluent from property crimes by the poor
• Higher %black increases the probability of
intra-racial crime, which is less politically
inflammatory
• Higher % black increases black political
influence, reduce arbitrary policing
Social Conditions, Political Processes, Crime, and Corrections
Feedback from Imprisonment to Social Conditions
Crime
Social &
Demographic
Conditions
Social Control, Deterrence
Arrests
Judicial
Processes
Corrections
Outcomes
Police
Enforcement
Political
Processes
Laws,
Penalties
Prison
Interests
An Individual Life Course Model of Crime With Policing Added
Parental
Unemployment,
Economic &
Educational
Disadvantage
School Failure
Father
Absence/
Family
Disruption
Peer &
Normative
Context
Parental
Involvement in
Crime
Juvenile
Crime
Labeling
and/or
Intervention
Processes
Juvenile
Unemployment
Adult
Unemployment/
UnderEmployment
Policing
Practices
Adult
Crime
Intergenerational Effects
Imprisonment
Imprisonment as a Cause of Crime?
Labeling
Etc.
Processes
reduces ?
Family
Disruption
+
Imprisonment
Rates
+
+
+
Crime
+
reduces ?
+
Unemployment
Middle
Class Flight
+
+
+
+
Economic
Distress
Aggressive
Policing
Deviant Culture
(Gangs, Drug
Trade, Criminality
as a way of life)
+ due to Political Powerlessness
+
+
Spatial
Isolation of
Poor Blacks
Segregation and Crime
• Spatial isolation leads to reduced
opportunities, poverty, and increased crime
• Major reason non-poor move out of poor
areas is fear of crime
• Crime increases spatial isolation of poor,
especially black poor
• Disrupted families, destabilized
neighborhoods, downward spirals
Non-poor areas matter
• Too much focus on inner cities has
neglected some of the engines of causation
• Poor also out-migrate from high-crime areas
• What happens to them where they go affects
long-term trajectories
• Policing in non-poor areas a crucial factor
In Conclusion
• Looking at the data challenges many preconceived
ideas of where “the problem” is
• There is a serious need to address racial disparities
in Wisconsin’s smaller communities
• Blacks are being differentially affected by the drug
war
• The drug war & attendant policing look a lot like
political repression might look
And Finally
• Police are not “the problem” but arrests and
criminal sanctions are part of the problem
• We need to consider the incentive structures:
police are “paid” to do drug enforcement
• We have to accept the fact that the drug war has
been racial in its execution, and discuss what that
means for our images of a just society
