Slide 1
Sociology 640
Class 11:
More on Divorce
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Slide 2
Economic Independence and Divorce
• As with marriage, independence hypo. has been very prominent – prompting test of alternatives.
• Theoretical expectations regarding link between women’s econ. status and marital stability/quality are ambiguous.
• Empirical evidence related to independence hypo. is also ambiguous.
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Slide 3
Problems with past research
• Little consideration of gender ideology
• Little consideration of marital quality
– Can’t distinguish between effect of economic independence on divorce per se or effect of e.i. on dissolution of “bad” marriages
• Research needed to get at “chicken and egg” problem
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Slide 4
Sayer and Bianchi approach
1. Examine relationship between W’s earnings and divorce.
2. Sequentially “account for” (control for) other theoretically relevant factors.
3. Determine which factors (if any)
“explain” the positive relationship between W’s earnings and divorce.
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Slide 5
Findings
1. Very strong negative association between women’s earnings and marital stability.
2. This relationship disappears when they
“control for” other characteristics, especially gender ideology.
3. Effect of women’s economic “independence” seems most relevant among low earning couples.
•
Very interesting in light of Hochschild research
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Slide 6
Question
Q: Why is family disruption associated with failure to complete high school?
• Importance of this question
– Likelihood of marital disruption
– Increasing importance of education as determinant of economic success
– Relationship between dropout and “deviant” behaviors
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Slide 7
Family Change and Dropout Rates
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
4.0
9.2
11.5
9.7
6.8
No Change Mother
Only
Stepparent Father Only Unkown
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Slide 8
Trends in High School Dropout, by Family Income Level
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
20
18
16
14
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
Total Middle Income High Income Low income
Dropout rate is the % of 15-24 year olds who dropped out of grades 10-12 in previous 12 months.
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Slide 9
Theory
“Chicken and Egg” Problem
Economic status
Marital disruption
(event)
????
Change in
Economic
Status
(mechanism)
School failure
(outcome)
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Slide 10
“Reshuffling” of Poverty
Dissolved marriages
School failure
(outcome)
Poor families
Basically, an issue of self-selection – just like cohab. & divorce.
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Slide 11
Policy Implications
• Should policy focus be on:
– Limiting marital disruption (probably not feasible)?
– Minimizing economic impact of marital disruption on children (i.e, child-support policy)?
– Minimizing economic hardship among families with children?
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Slide 12
Data – Analytical Approach
• Use longitudinal data – the only way to establish causal ordering
• Sample – define risk set as 8 th graders living w/ both biological parents
• Limitations – generalizability
– An important limitation given large increase in children born to single-mothers
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Slide 13
Model
Initial Income
(a) Level
(b) Poverty status
Family Change
No change vs. change
Change in
Income
(a) Level
(b) Poverty status
Educational Failure – dropout of HS or not?
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Slide 14
Results of Simple Model
1.5
1
0.5
3
2.5
2
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.7
0
2
- M
O
2
-S
P
2
- F
/G
>1
C ha ng e
1.3
1.2
0.3
0.3
0.09
Fe m al e
G
P
A
#
S ib s
P ar en ts
H
S
P ar en ts
U
N
I
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Slide 15
Results of Complete Models
2.5
Not significant
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
1.5
1.4
1.8
2.1
0.5
0.8
2.2
0.0
2 - MO Income
($10,00)
Inc.
Chng.
2 - MO Poverty Pov. Exit Pov.
Entry
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Slide 16
Conclusions
• Most family status transitions not related to likelihood of dropping out (rather reshuffling of economic deprivation).
• Transition to single-mother family is associated with likelihood of dropout
• This is explained by economic impact of marital dissolution
* Large increase in single-mother families has potentially major implications for children’s educational success
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