Forest Service
FOREST THREATS
Eastern Forest Environmental Threat
Assessment Center
Photos courtesy of Bugwood.org
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Welcome to the Eastern Threat Center!
The Center is a collaborative effort among the Forest Service’s three deputy areas:
 Research and Development
 National Forest System
 State and Private Forestry
The Center is administered by the Southern Research Station (SRS) and co-located
with SRS headquarters in Asheville, NC.
The Center also has offices in Raleigh and Research Triangle Park, NC.
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Eastern Threat Center Overview (cont’d)
The Center’s mission is to “generate knowledge and tools needed to anticipate and
respond to forest and associated environmental threats.”
Center researchers and support staff achieve the mission by:
 Predicting, detecting, and assessing environmental threats
 Delivering knowledge and tools in a timely, useful, and user-friendly manner
 Collaborating with federal and state government agencies, universities, and
non-governmental partners.
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Eastern Threat Center Overview (cont’d)
Scientists conduct threats to forest health research and provide expertise
concerning:
 Climate variability and pollution
 Loss of open space
 Diseases
 Invasive plants
 Insects
 Wildland fire
 Forest Management
The Center creates tools, technology, and science delivery to support multicultural
forest landowners, land managers, partners, and stakeholders throughout the
eastern United States.
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Climate Variability and Pollution
What is climate variability?
“Climate varies over seasons and years instead of day-to-day like weather. Some
summers are colder than others. Some years have more overall precipitation.
Even though people are fairly perceptive of climate variability, it is not as
noticeable as weather variability because it happens over seasons and years.”
http://www.miseagrant.umich.edu/downloads/climate/11-703-ClimateVariability-and-Climate-Change.pdf
What is Pollution?
Pollution is the introduction of contaminants into the natural environment that
cause adverse change. Pollution can take the form of chemical substances or
energy, such as noise, heat or light.
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Climate Variability and Pollution
 Red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) and eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis [L.] Carrière), already
declining in some areas, are projected to be eliminated from the southeast by 2100 as a result of
the combined stresses of warming, air pollution, and insects.
 The majority of the Nation’s pulp and timber supply is produced in the southeast, but if
temperature continues to increase and precipitation becomes more variable, conditions for pine
growth may begin to deteriorate. Even if regional forest productivity remains high, the center of
forest productivity could shift northward into North Carolina and Virginia, causing significant
economic and social impacts.
 Increasing demand for water from a rapidly growing urban population, combined with increased
drought frequency could result in water shortages in some areas of the Southeast.
 Warmer temperature may increase decomposition of soil organic matter and emissions of CO2,
reducing the potential for C sequestration.
 Increased fire hazard and insect outbreaks will provide significant challenges for sustainable
management of forests for timber and other uses, but may also motivate restoration of firetolerant longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) forests.
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Climate Variability and Pollution
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Southeast Regional Climate HUB!
The Southeast Regional Climate HUD (SERCH), delivers science-based information
on climate variability to farmers, ranchers, and forest land managers to maintain
and improve sustainability of working lands under increasing climate variability:
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Southeast Climate Variability
Although not everywhere in the Southeast is warming, warming is not needed for
increased climate variability, such as extreme precipitation. This increased
variability has the Southeast leading the nation in billion dollar disasters.
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Delivering Useful Information
SERCH LIGHTS is a location-based
drought email alert system. Subscribers
receive an email alert when the drought
condition for their location is expected
to change, according to
NOAA’s Monthly Drought Outlook.
Subscribe at serch.us/lights/subscribe.
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Loss of Open Space
What is open space?
Open space includes natural areas such as forests and grasslands, as well
as working farms, ranches, and timberlands. Open space also includes parks, stream
and river corridors, and other natural areas within urban and suburban areas. Open
space lands may be protected or unprotected, public or private.
Conversion refers to the replacement of trees with houses, buildings,
lawns, and pavement.
Fragmentation refers to the disturbance zone beyond the footprint of the
development.
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Loss of Open Space
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Loss of Open Space
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Diseases
 Major Hazards – collectively, root diseases, bark beetles, and oak
decline were the leading contributor to the risk of mortality in the
coterminous United States, while spruce beetle was the most significant
contributor in Alaska.
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Diseases
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Diseases
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Insects
Known - research has shown impacts of climate change on tree species are known in our region. Likely - research
has linked climate change to negative impacts of pest on regional forests tree species with the degree of impact
controlled by various factors such as host with restricted ranges. Not likely - little research evidence has linked
climate change to negative impacts of pest on regional forests tree species and/or the pest is present outside our
region. Not know - no relevant research evidence was found that linked climate change to negative impacts of pest
on regional forests tree species and/or the pest is present outside our region.
Forest Pest
Climate Change Impact
Southern Pine Beetle Dendroctonus frontalis
Known
Balsam Woolly Adelgid Adelges piceae
Beech Scale Cryptococcus fagisuga
Eastern Five-spined Engraver Ips grandicollis
Eastern Six-spined Engraver Ips calligraphus
Hemlock Woolly Adelgid Adelges tsugae
Red Oak Borer Enaphalodes rufulus
Small Southern Pine Engraver Ips avulsus
Likely
Likely
Likely
Likely
Likely
Likely
Likely
Birch Leafminer Fenusa pumila
Browntail Moth Euproctis chrysorrhoea
Columbian Timber Beetle Corthylus columbianus
Eastern Tent Caterpillar Malacosoma americanum
Elm Leaf Beetle Pyrrhalta luteola
Erythrina Gall Wasp Quadrastichus erythrinae
Fall Webworm Hyphantria cunea
Introduced Pine Sawfly Diprion similis
Nantucket Pine Tip Moth Rhyacionia frustrana
Pales Weevil Hylobius pales
Pear Thrips Taeniothrips inconsequens
Smaller European Elm Bark Beetle Scolytus multistriatus
Twolined Chestnut Borer Agrilus bilineatus
Not likely
Not likely
Not likely
Not likely
Not likely
Not likely
Not likely
Not likely
Not likely
Not likely
Not likely
Not likely
Not likely
Asian Longhorned Beetle Anoplophora glabripennis
Banded Elm Bark Beetle Scolytus schevyrewi
Eastern Larch Beetle Dendroctonus simplex
Elongate Hemlock Scale Fiorinia externa
Emerald Ash Borer Agrilus planipennis
Gypsy Moth Lymantria dispar
Not known
Not known
Not known
Not known
Not known
Not known
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Invasive Plants
 Invasive species have been characterized as a “catastrophic wildfire in slow
motion.” A species is considered invasive if it is non-native to an ecosystem, and
its introduction causes or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm or
harm to human health.
Kudzu
Nodding Thistle
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Invasive Plants
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Wildland Fire
 Determining the sensitivity of eastern
US fire regimes to climate change
 Effects of prescribed burning on
stream water quantity, quality, and
fuel loads in a small Piedmont
watershed in North Carolina
 Effects of wildland fires and fuel
treatment strategies on water
quantity across the contiguous
United States
 Fire and fuel management in coast
redwood
 Improving fire modeling tools for the
eastern United States
 National Cohesive Wildland Fire
Management Strategy
 Quantifying large-scale patterns of
forest fire occurrence
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Eastern Threat Center Overview (cont’d)
The Center’s collaborative, web-based tools include:
ForWarn
A satellite-based national early warning system that detects forest disturbance and
allows users to share and create geographically relevant maps.
Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options
TACCIMO is an interactive, web-based tool that integrates climate change science into
land management planning decisions.
Water Supply Stress Index Model
WaSSI estimates impacts of global change on water supply and carbon dynamics in
the United States and is being tested in Mexico and Africa.
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Eastern Threat Center Overview (cont’d)
Collaborative, web-based tools:
Comparative Risk Assessment Framework and Tools
CRAFT is a user-friendly support system that helps natural resource managers address
uncertainties inherent in land management decisions.
Forecasts of Climate-Associated Shifts in Tree Species
ForeCASTS maps depict future suitable habitat ranges for North American tree
species under future climate scenarios and assist land management decisions.
United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Eastern Threat Center Overview (cont’d)
Additional collaborative projects:
National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy
Center researchers are providing scientific support to the interagency
comprehensive plan to guide future management and wildland fire investments.
Forest Health Monitoring Annual Reports
Center and university partners produce annual reports describing the health of the
nation’s forests, providing land managers with current issues impacting forest
resources.