The Morning Call/
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion
The 2007 State of the Commonwealth
Public Opinion Survey
KEY FINDINGS REPORT
MAY 24, 2007
KEY FINDINGS:
1. Despite positive ratings of Pennsylvania as a place to live, Commonwealth
residents continue to be pessimistic about the direction of life in the Keystone
State.
2. Pennsylvanians view the state economy more positively than they have during the
past half decade.
3. Concerns regarding becoming unemployed have reached record lows during the
Spring of 2007.
4. Pennsylvanians are expressing high levels of concern in terms of becoming a
victim of a crime.
5. Commonwealth residents indicate increased concern regarding the loss of open
space in Pennsylvania.
6. Residents of the Keystone State continue to express strong dissatisfaction with the
war in Iraq and President Bush’s handling of the conflict.
7. Despite a number of high profile set backs during the early part of 2007,
Governor Rendell’s approval rating remains high among state residents.
8. As can be expected in the demise of Act One, Pennsylvanians show little support
for a shift of property tax burden to income taxes.
9. Pennsylvanians express mixed views of raising sales taxes in the state to provide
property tax relief.
10. Support for the leasing of the Pennsylvania Turnpike System to a private
company is low among state residents.
11. State residents show moderate levels of support for converting Interstate 80 into a
toll road in order to help finance road repair in the Commonwealth.
METHODOLOGY: The following key findings report summarizes data collected in a
telephone survey of residents of the state of Pennsylvania between May 15 and May 21,
2007. Individual households throughout Pennsylvania were selected randomly for
inclusion in the study. The sample of phone numbers used in the survey was generated by
Genesys Sampling Systems of Ft. Washington, PA. Interviewing was conducted by the
staff of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, with 465 surveys completed.
This number of completions results in a margin of error of +/- 4.5% at the 95%
confidence interval. However the margin of errors for sub groups (i.e. women, income
groups, age categories) is larger due to smaller sample size. Percentages throughout the
survey have been rounded upward at the .5 mark, thus many totals in the results will not
equal 100%. The survey questionnaire was designed by Christopher Borick, Ph.D of the
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in consultation with staff members of the
Morning Call.
ANALYSIS: This is the fifth in a series of annual observations of citizen views on life
in the state of Pennsylvania. The study is designed to take an annual “snapshot” of how
individuals in the commonwealth view quality of life here, and how such perceptions
evolve over time. In this study we ask respondents to rate elements of life in the state and
their perceptions of key issues facing the commonwealth. By doing so, we strive to gain a
more complete understanding of how citizens of Pennsylvania view life here.
Overall Perceptions of Quality of Life In Pennsylvania
In general, little change exists between the ratings that Pennsylvanians give to
living in the commonwealth in comparison to 2003-2006. Overall, state residents
continue to see life here positively, with 89% of respondents in 2007 rating life in the
Keystone State as either excellent (26%) or good (63%). These ratings show no
statistically significant changes since 2003, when 87% of Pennsylvanians saw the state as
an excellent or good place to live.
TABLE ONE:
Rating of PA as a Place to Live
Excellent
Good
Not too good
Poor
Not
sure/Refused
2003
27%
60%
8%
4%
2004
29%
59%
8%
3%
2005
28%
61%
6%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2006
29%
60%
7%
4%
0%
2007
26%
63%
9%
3%
<1%
Despite their overall satisfaction with living in the commonwealth, residents of
Pennsylvania remain pessimistic about the direction in which the state is heading. As in
2006, 38% of respondents said that life in the state is getting worse, while only 22% said
life was improving. Thirty-four percent responded that the quality of life in Pennsylvania
was staying the same. These results are very similar to the results from 2003-2006.
TABLE TWO: “Is Life in Pennsylvania Getting Better or Worse”
Direction of
The State
Getting Better
Getting Worse
Staying the
Same
(Volunteered)
Not Sure
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
32%
40%
30%
42%
30%
43%
32%
43%
22%
38%
20%
18%
18%
20%
34%
8%
9%
9%
5%
6%
The pessimism in Pennsylvania correlates with a national trend where Americans have
expressed an increasing belief that the nation is headed in the wrong direction. A recent
AP/Ipsos poll (Table Two B) shows only 1 in 4 Americans believe the nation is headed in
the right direction.
TABLE TWO B: “Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are
heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
(ASSOCIATED PRESS/IPSOS)
Direction of
The Nation
Right
Direction
Wrong
Direction
Not Sure
2003
50%
44%
6%
2004
2005
38%
36%
58%
59%
4%
5%
2006
2007
23%
25%
73%
71%
4%
6%
Perceptions of the Economy and Employment in Pennsylvania
Attitudes of Pennsylvanians about the status of the commonwealth’s economy
continue to improve as the number of residents responding that the state’s economy was
either excellent or good climbed from 36% in 2003 to 57% in 2006. The poll findings
mark the first time in five years that a majority of Pennsylvanians gave the state’s
economy a positive rating.
TABLE THREE: Rating of Pennsylvania Economy
Rating
Excellent
Good
Not so good
Poor
Not sure
2003
1%
35%
44%
18%
1%
2004
3%
43%
35%
18%
1%
2005
2%
47%
35%
13%
2%
2006
4%
39%
41%
15%
1%
2007
2%
55%
35%
6%
2%
As Pennsylvania residents have become more optimistic about the economy, their
confidence in avoiding unemployment has also steadily improved. More specifically, the
survey results indicate that 48% of commonwealth residents are not concerned at all
about becoming unemployed, marking a five year high in the Commonwealth..
As might be expected these findings are strongly correlated with decreasing
unemployment rates in the state as demonstrated in Table Four.
TABLE FOUR: Changes in Unemployment Rates and Levels of Concern About
Becoming Unemployed Among Pennsylvania Residents
% of PA
Residents Not
Concerned at all
About Becoming
Unemployed
Pennsylvania
Unemployment
Rate*
2003
36%
2004
41%
2005
44%
2006
44%
2007
48%
5.7%
5.5%
5.1%
4.5%
4.1%
* The 2003, 2004 , 2005 , 2006 unemployment rates are the annual averages as measured by the Department of Labor(DOL). The
2007 unemployment rate is the DOL estimate for April 2007.
Environment
Pennsylvania residents’ concerns about the environment have remained fairly
high in 2007. A majority of commonwealth residents continue to express concerns about
the quality of both air and water quality within the Keystone State with slight increases in
worries since our first survey in 2003. The ratings of state concerns regarding
environmental quality are presented in Table Five and Six.
TABLE FIVE: “How concerned are you with the air quality in your community?”
Rating
Very concerned
Somewhat concerned
Not too concerned
Not concerned at all
Not sure/Refused
2003
16%
27%
30%
27%
1%
2004
16%
29%
24%
30%
1%
2005
26%
29%
22%
20%
3%
2006
24%
28%
25%
22%
2%
2007
20%
34%
28%
18%
<1%
TABLE SIX: “How concerned are you with the quality of drinking water in your
community?”
Rating
Very concerned
Somewhat concerned
Not too concerned
Not concerned at all
Not sure/Refused
2003
19%
25%
29%
27%
1%
2004
17%
26%
21%
34%
1%
2005
24%
28%
21%
24%
4%
2006
24%
21%
23%
29%
2%
2007
18%
34%
28%
20%
<1%
The area of the environment that appears to be the greatest concern of Pennsylvanians is
the loss of open space in the Commonwealth. As “suburban sprawl” continues to
consume increasing levels of Pennsylvanians green space, the number of Pennsylvania
residents concerned about the matter increases. More specifically, almost 8 out of 10
(79%) state residents indicated that they are either very or somewhat concerned about the
loss of open space in the Keystone State. This marks a 10% increase in concern over last
year’s mark.
TABLE SEVEN: Level of Concern with the Loss of Open Spaces
Very Concerned
Somewhat Concerned
Not Too Concerned
Not Concerned at all
Not Sure
Refused
Crime
2006
41%
28%
17%
11%
2%
2%
2007
43%
36%
16%
5%
1%
<1%
Perhaps the most troublesome area of quality life in Pennsylvania is the increasing level
of concern regarding crime. With violent crime rates increasing in many parts of the
commonwealth, Pennsylvanians have grown increasingly concerned about the possibility
of becoming a victim of a crime. In particular, almost 2 out of 3 Commonwealth
residents expressed concern (very or somewhat) that they would become a crime victim.
This 65% concern level is 19 points higher than our initial survey in 2003.
TABLE SEVEN B : Level of Concern with Becoming a Victim of a Crime
Very
concerned
Somewhat
concerned
Not too
concerned
Not concerned
at all
Not
sure/Refused
2003
2004
2005
19%
16%
17%
27%
29%
37%
33%
26%
26%
20%
27%
17%
1%
2%
3%
2006
23%
29%
24%
22%
2%
Approval Levels for The Governor and President
TABLE EIGHT: Approval Ratings for Governor Rendell
March 2006
April 2006
August 2006
October 2006
November 2006
May 2007
Approve
46%
49%
50%
57%
61%
57%
Disapprove
40%
36%
38%
32%
32%
28%
Neutral/Not Sure
14%
15%
12%
11%
7%
15%
TABLE NINE:
Approval Ratings for President Bush
March , 2006
April , 2006
August , 2006
October, 2006
November, 2006
May,2007
Approve
36%
33%
33%
38%
39%
28%
Disapprove
56%
57%
58%
53%
53%
64%
Neutral/Not Sure
8%
10%
9%
9%
8%
7%
2007
20%
45%
24%
11%
<1%
Pennsylvania Attitudes Regarding The War in Iraq
TABLE TEN: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling
the situation with Iraq?
Response
Approve
Disapprove
Not Sure
Refused
March
04
45%
42%
10%
2%
May
04
42%
46%
11%
<1%
Oct
04
41%
49%
8%
2%
March
05
40%
53%
5%
3%
Sept
05
34%
57%
9%
1%
April
06
32%
60%
7%
<1%
November
06
35%
62%
3%
<1%
May
07
25%
67%
75
<1%
TABLE ELEVEN: All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to
the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?
Response
Worth Fighting
Not Worth
Fighting
Not Sure
Refused
March
04
47%
42%
May
04
41%
49%
Oct
04
Na
Na
March
05
38%
53%
Sept
05
34%
59%
April
06
35%
58%
November
06
35%
60%
May
07
31%
63%
10%
2%
9%
1%
Na
Na
6%
3%
7%
0%
7%
0%
4%
<1%
5%
<1%
TABLE TWELVE: In general, do you think going to war with Iraq has made
Americans safer from terrorism, or not?
Response
Safer From
Terrorism
Not Safer
From
Terrorism
Not Sure
Refused
March
04
39%
May
04
36%
Oct
04
37%
March Sept April November May
05
05
06
06
07
35%
33% 34% 33%
30%
48%
56%
56%
56%
60% 58%
61%
65%
12%
2%
8%
<1%
7%
<1%
6%
2%
7% 7%
<1% <1%
4%
2%
5%
1%
TABLE THIRTEEN: Do you think the U.S. should not set a timetable for when
troops will be withdrawn from Iraq?
Should Set a Timetable
Should Not Set a Timetable
Not Sure
Refused
Percentage
61%
31%
7%
1%
Attitudes Towards Selected Policy Initiatives in the Commonwealth
TABLE FOURTEEN: Raising the Earned Income Tax in Order to Lower Property
Taxes
Strongly Support
Somewhat Support
Somewhat Oppose
Strongly Oppose
Not Sure
Refused
Percentage
13%
18%
20%
41%
8%
<1%
TABLE FIFTEEN: Raising the Personal Income Tax to Lower Property Taxes
Strongly Support
Somewhat Support
Somewhat Oppose
Strongly Oppose
Not Sure
Refused
Percentage
10%
16%
21%
45%
8%
1%
TABLE SIXTEEN: Raising the Sales Tax to Lower Property Taxes
Strongly Support
Somewhat Support
Somewhat Oppose
Strongly Oppose
Not Sure
Refused
Percentage
14%
29%
17%
32%
7%
1%
TABLE SEVENTEEN: Leasing the Pennsylvania Turnpike to a Private Company
in Order to Raise Money to Pay for the Repair and Construction of Highways and
Bridges
Strongly Support
Somewhat Support
Somewhat Oppose
Strongly Oppose
Not Sure
Refused
Percentage
14%
23%
14%
35%
13%
1%
TABLE EIGHTEEN: Using Tolls on Interstate 80 to Raise Money to Pay for the
Repair and Construction of Highways and Bridges
Strongly Support
Somewhat Support
Somewhat Oppose
Strongly Oppose
Not Sure
Refused
Percentage
22%
33%
11%
25%
8%
1%