Muhlenberg College/Morning Call
2012 Pennsylvania Presidential Election Survey
Release Date
November 4, 2012
Survey Methodology
Number of Interviews: 430 Likely Voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
Margin of Error: +/-5% at a 95% level of confidence
Fielding Dates – November 1-3, 2012
Method of Interviewing: Live telephone interviewers
Method of Sampling: The sample for this study was drawn randomly from
both a list of registered voters in the state of Pennsylvania and from the
universe of wireless numbers in the Commonwealth. First, voters were
randomly selected from a list of registered voters in Pennsylvania that is
provided by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. This list has been updated to
reflect changes in phone numbers for voters since their initial registration.
However since the list updating procedure will not match voters to wireless
phone numbers a supplemental sampling procedure is employed. The
supplemental sample includes a random selection of wireless numbers for cell
phones in Pennsylvania. While the proportion of registered voters in
Pennsylvania who exclusively use cell phones is undetermined, it is estimated
that approximately a quarter of Americans use only cell phones. We thus
supplement the sample drawn from voter files with a sample drawn randomly
from wireless phone numbers in Pennsylvania. Respondents from the cell
phone sample were asked to identify if they used only cell phones for their
personal use, with those using both cell phones and landlines excluded form
participation in the survey. The overall sample included 314 responses from the
list of registered voters and 116 responses from the cell phone sample.
Likely Voter Screens: To identify likely voters a multiple stage process is
utilized. For the sample drawn from the Pennsylvania voter registration files
only individuals who voted in at least 1 of the last 8 general or primary
elections in Pennsylvania OR who had registered to vote in the state since 2009
were included in the sampling frame. For the cell phone sample respondents
were asked if they had voted in 1 of the last 8 elections in the state or had
registered to vote since 2009. Among those that met the voting history
requirement, two follow up questions were asked to determine voter likelihood.
First respondents were asked to confirm their voter registration status (Question
1) with those indicating that they were either not registered or unsure about
their registration status being excluded from participation. Finally, individuals
were asked to express the likelihood that they will vote (Question 2) in the
November election, with only those indicating that they will definitely or most
likely vote allowed to participate in the full survey.
Weighting: The data was weighted by gender and region of the state.
Totals may not equal 100% due to rounding
Instrument Design: Dr. Christopher P. Borick of the Muhlenberg College Institute
of Public Opinion in conjunction with staff members of the Morning Call.
CONTACT:
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion 484-664-3066
FREQUENCY REPORT AND SURVEY INSTRUMENT
INTRODUCTION
Q1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status?
Are you registered as a ? (READ LIST)
August
2012
Democrat
Republican
Independent
Other Party
Not Registered (END
SURVEY)
Not Sure (END
SURVEY)
Late
September
2012
47%
39%
12%
2%
Na
Early
October
2012
47%
42%
10%
2%
Na
Late
October
2012
46%
40%
12%
2%
Na
November
2012
49%
40%
10%
2%
Na
Early
September
2012
49%
39%
8%
4%
Na
Na
Na
Na
Na
Na
Na
46%
42%
11%
1%
Na
Q2: How likely are you to vote in the elections this November? Are you definitely going to
vote, very likely to vote, not too likely to vote or definitely not voting in the November
Election?
August
2012
Definitely Going to
Vote
Very Likely To Vote
Very Likely To Vote
(END SURVEY)
Definitely not voting
(END SURVEY)
Not Sure (END
SURVEY)
84%
Early
September
2012
82%
Late
September
2012
85%
Early
Late
November
October October
2012
2012
2012
90%
91%
92%
16%
Na
18%
Na
15%
Na
10%
Na
9%
Na
8%
Na
Na
Na
Na
Na
Na
Na
Na
Na
Na
Na
Na
Na
Q3: Next, I would like for you to rate the performance of a few political officials. For each
name that I read, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way he is doing his job.
First, President Barack Obama?
August
2012
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
43%
47%
10%
Early
September
2012
47%
44%
9%
Late
September
2012
47%
45%
8%
Early
October
2012
47%
46%
6%
Late
October
2012
46%
46%
7%
November
2012
48%
47%
5%
Q4: How about Governor Tom Corbett?
August
2012
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
30%
46%
24%
Early
September
2012
30%
46%
25%
Late
September
2012
31%
45%
25%
Early
October
2012
33%
39%
27%
Late
October
2012
32%
41%
27%
November
2012
37%
38%
25%
Q5: and Senator Bob Casey Jr.?
August
2012
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
37%
28%
35%
Early
Late
September September
2012
2012
37%
33%
31%
31%
32%
36%
Early
October
2012
32%
35%
33%
Late
October
2012
37%
34%
29%
November
2012
38%
37%
25%
Q6: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I
read, please tell me if your impression of him is favorable or unfavorable.
First, Mitt Romney
August
2012
Favorable
Unfavorable
Neutral/Not Sure
Haven’t heard of
him
37%
49%
13%
<1%
Early
September
2012
40%
48%
12%
<1%
Late
September
2012
39%
51%
10%
<1%
Early
October
2012
44%
45%
11%
<1%
Late
October
2012
43%
47%
10%
<1%
November
2012
Early
September
2012
50%
42%
7%
<1%
Late
September
2012
49%
45%
6%
<1%
Early
October
2012
46%
46%
7%
0%
Late
October
2012
50%
45%
5%
0%
November
2012
47%
45%
8%
0%
Q7: Next, Barack Obama
August
2012
Favorable
Unfavorable
Neutral/Not Sure
Haven’t heard of
him
48%
45%
7%
0%
49%
47%
5%
0%
Q8: How about Bob Casey Jr.?
August
2012
Favorable
Unfavorable
Neutral/Not Sure
Haven’t heard of
him
40%
26%
31%
2%
Early
September
2012
35%
31%
31%
3%
Late
September
2012
34%
33%
31%
3%
Early
October
2012
32%
36%
28%
4%
Late
October
2012
37%
33%
28%
2%
November
2012
Late
October
2012
28%
28%
35%
9%
November
2012
39%
37%
24%
1%
Q9: and Tom Smith?
August
2012
Favorable
Unfavorable
Neutral/Not Sure
Haven’t heard of
him
18%
13%
40%
30%
Early
September
2012
20%
18%
35%
27%
Late
September
2012
23%
21%
36%
20%
Early
October
2012
29%
23%
33%
15%
35%
34%
26%
5%
Q10: Now, if the 2012 presidential election was being held today and the race was between
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
August
2012
Barack Obama
Mitt Romney
Neither/Other
Not Sure
(Volunteered)
48%
38%
6%
7%
Early
September
2012
49%
41%
5%
5%
Late
September
2012
49%
41%
4%
6%
Early
October
2012
47%
44%
3%
6%
Late
October
2012
50%
44%
2%
5%
November
2012
48%
46%
2%
5%
NOTE Q11 was asked only to respondents who responded “not sure” in Q10 (n = 22)
Q11: Are you leaning more toward voting for Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?
August
2012
Obama
Romney
Neutral/Not
Sure
10%
20%
70%
Early
September
2012
13%
16%
71%
Late
September
2012
15%
15%
70%
Early
October
2012
29%
21%
50%
Late
October
2012
10%
32%
58%
November
2012
23%
14%
63%
PRESIDENTIAL RACE WITH LEANERS
August
2012
Barack Obama
Mitt Romney
Neither/Other
Not Sure
(Volunteered)
49%
40%
6%
5%
Early
September
2012
50%
41%
5%
4%
Late
September
2012
49%
42%
4%
5%
Early
October
2012
49%
45%
3%
3%
Late
October
2012
50%
45%
2%
3%
November
2012
49%
46%
2%
3%
Q12: Now, if the 2010 U.S. Senate election was being held today and the race was between Bob
Casey Jr. and Tom Smith, who would you vote for?
August
2012
Bob Casey Jr
Tom Smith
Neither/Other
Not Sure
(Volunteered)
46%
28%
3%
24%
Early
September
2012
44%
30%
5%
21%
Late
September
2012
42%
34%
7%
17%
Early
October
2012
39%
37%
1%
23%
Late
October
2012
42%
34%
2%
22%
November
2012
46%
39%
2%
14%
NOTEQ13 was asked only to respondents who responded “not sure” in Q12 (n = 60)
Q13: Are you leaning more toward voting for Bob Casey Jr. or Tom Smith?
August
2012
Bob Casey Jr
Tom Smith
Not Sure
(Volunteered)
14%
9%
76%
Early
September
2012
8%
13%
78%
Late
September
2012
13%
9%
77%
Early
October
2012
11%
7%
82%
Late
October
2012
15%
12%
73%
November
2012
16%
22%
62%
SENATE RACE WITH LEANERS
August
Early
2012
September
2012
Bob Casey Jr
49%
45%
Tom Smith
30%
33%
Neither/Other
3%
5%
Not Sure
18%
18%
(Volunteered)
Late
September
2012
44%
36%
7%
13%
Early
October
2012
41%
39%
1%
18%
Late
October
2012
45%
37%
2%
16%
November
2012
48%
42%
2%
9%
Q14: Next, if the 2010 Pennsylvania Attorney General’s election was being held today and the
race was between Dave Freed the Republican and Kathleen Kane the Democrat, who would you
vote for?
Dave Freed
Kathleen Kane
Other
Not Sure
Late September
2012
27%
33%
2%
38%
Early October
2012
28%
33%
2%
37%
Late October
2012
26%
39%
1%
34%
November
2012
33%
45%
2%
20%
NOTE Q15 was asked only to respondents who responded “not sure” in Q14
(n = 86)
Q15: Are you leaning more toward voting for Dave Freed or Kathleen Kane?
Dave Freed
Kathleen Kane
Not Sure
Late September
2012
9%
11%
79%
Early October
2012
6%
9%
84%
Late October
2012
5%
6%
89%
November
2012
15%
21%
64%
ATTORNEY GENERAL’S RACE WITH LEANERS
Late
September
2012
31%
37%
2%
31%
Dave Freed
Kathleen Kane
Other
Not Sure
Early October
2012
Late October
2012
November
2012
30%
37%
2%
32%
28%
40%
1%
30%
36%
49%
2%
13%
Q16: If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you
vote for? The Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate? (OPTIONS
ROTATED)
August
2012
Democrat
Republican
Neither/Other
Not Sure
(Volunteered)
44%
35%
4%
17%
Early
September
2012
46%
39%
6%
9%
Late
September
2012
42%
39%
4%
15%
Early
October
2012
45%
41%
1%
13%
Late
October
2012
47%
41%
2%
11%
November
2012
45%
41%
3%
11%
Q17. Regardless of who you support in the presidential election, who do you trust more to
handle the issue of Medicare, Romney or Obama?
Obama
Romney
Both Equal (Volunteered)
Neither (Volunteered)
Not Sure (Volunteered)
August 2012
47%
34%
2%
11%
7%
September 2012
50%
38%
2%
6%
5%
November 2012
47%
43%
2%
3%
5%
Q18. How about handling the economy?
Obama
Romney
Both Equal (Volunteered)
Neither (Volunteered)
Not Sure (Volunteered)
August 2012
41%
42%
1%
9%
6%
September 2012
44%
44%
2%
5%
5%
November 2012
45%
49%
3%
2%
2%
Q19. How about handling the federal budget deficit?
November 2012
42%
49%
3%
5%
2%
Obama
Romney
Both Equal (Volunteered)
Neither (Volunteered)
Not Sure (Volunteered)
Q20: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best
describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST)?
August
2012
White/Caucasian
African-American
Hispanic
Latino
Asian
Native American
Mixed race
Other
90%
6%
1%
<1%
1%
<1%
1%
1%
Early
September
2012
88%
6%
2%
<1%
1%
<1%
2%
1%
Late
September
2012
86%
7%
2%
<1%
1%
1%
2%
1%
Early
October
2012
87%
6%
2%
1%
1%
<1%
2%
1%
Late
October
2012
87%
8%
2%
1%
1%
<1%
<1%
1%
November
2012
86%
9%
2%
<1%
2%
<1%
<1%
<1%
Q21: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you
(READ LIST)?
August
2012
Catholic
Protestant
Jewish
Muslim
Hindu
Other Religions
(including agnostic
Atheist
Not Sure
(volunteered)
Late
September
2012
35%
43%
3%
<1%
<1%
12%
Early
October
2012
33%
41%
3%
2%
<1%
12%
Late
October
2012
37%
39%
3%
1%
<1%
14%
November
2012
34%
47%
2%
1%
<1%
13%
Early
September
2012
33%
45%
3%
<1%
<1%
13%
2%
2%
3%
2%
2%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
3%
31%
44%
3%
1%
1%
15%
Q22: What is your current marital status? Are you (READ LIST)?
August
2012
Single
Married
Separated
Divorced
Widowed
Partnered
14%
65%
1%
6%
13%
1%
Early
Late
September September
2012
2012
16%
62%
1%
6%
13%
1%
14%
65%
1%
6%
12%
1%
Early
October
2012
Late
October
2012
November
2012
14%
67%
1%
6%
10%
1%
16%
68%
1%
7%
9%
<1%
19%
64%
1%
7%
8%
1%
Q23: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST)
Less than High School
High School Graduate
Some college or
technical school
College graduate (4 yr
only)
or Graduate or
professional degree
August
2012
Early
September
2012
Late
September
2012
Early
October
2012
Late
October
2012
November
2012
2%
31%
24%
1%
29%
25%
3%
26%
25%
3%
26%
23%
2%
25%
26%
3%
26%
23%
23%
24%
26%
29%
27%
26%
20%
21%
21%
18%
20%
22%
Q24: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)?
August
2012
Under $20,000
$20,000-$40,000
$40,000-$60,000
$60,000-$80,000
$80,000-$100,000
Or Over $100,000
Not Sure
(Volunteered)
11%
19%
23%
14%
11%
20%
2%
Early
September
2012
13%
20%
20%
14%
11%
19%
4%
Late
September
2012
10%
21%
19%
15%
10%
21%
5%
Early
October
2012
12%
19%
19%
16%
10%
18%
6%
Late
October
2012
9%
17%
20%
17%
13%
19%
7%
November
2012
11%
19%
22%
14%
11%
17%
5%
Q25: Which of the following categories does your current age fall in? Is it (READ
LIST)?
Early
Late
Early
Late
November
August
2012
September September
October
October
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
18-34
10%
13%
12%
13%
12%
12%
35-50
21%
25%
25%
24%
25%
26%
51-64
34%
29%
31%
32%
34%
31%
Or 65- and over
35%
32%
33%
31%
29%
30%
Q26: Thank you for your help with the survey. We appreciate your
time. (GENDER DETERMINED BY VOICE RECOGNITION)
August
2012
Male
Female
48%
52%
Early
September
2012
48%
52%
Late
September
2012
48%
52%
Early
October
2012
48%
52%
Late
November
October
2012
2012
48%
48%
52%
52%
REGION
10%
24%
Early
September
2012
11%
24%
Late
September
2012
12%
24%
Early
October
2012
11%
24%
11%
9%
46%
10%
10%
45%
12%
10%
43%
11%
10%
44%
August
2012
Philadelphia
Suburban
Phil/Lehigh
Valley
Allegheny
Southwest
Remainder of
State
Late
November
October
2012
2012
11%
11%
25%
25%
12%
10%
43%
12%
9%
43%
SELECTED CROSSTABS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE
(INCLUDING LEANERS)
Obama
Romney
Neither/Other
Not Sure
OVERALL
49%
46%
2%
3%
Democrat
86%
11%
1%
2%
Republican
10%
84%
2%
3%
Independent
43%
48%
5%
5%
Male
45%
49%
4%
2%
Female
52%
44%
<1%
4%
White
43%
52%
2%
3%
Non-White
79%
19%
<1%
2%
College Degree
46%
48%
2%
4%
No College Degree
52%
44%
1%
2%
Under 50 Years Old
54%
40%
3%
4%
Over 50 Years Old
46%
49%
1%
3%
Catholic
44%
50%
2%
4%
Protestant
47%
50%
1%
2%