The Morning Call/
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion
SURVEY OF LEHIGH VALLEY RESIDENTS ON
THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL, PENNSYLVANIA
SENATE, AND 15th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
ELECTION RACES
KEY FINDINGS REPORT
October 3, 2004
KEY FINDINGS:
1. John Kerry leads George W. Bush in a survey of Lehigh Valley voters by six
points – 47% - 41%.
2. Kerry is pulling on traditionally Democratic bases, such as female voters, people
under the age of 35 and people over the age of 65
3. In general, people in the Lehigh Valley believe the country is safer from terrorism
than it was prior to September of 2001, but do not believe that going to war with
Iraq has made the country safer from terrorism.
4. Local opinion on the worth of the War in Iraq continues to have a large impact on
preferences for the candidates seeking the White House, with individuals viewing
the value of the war negatively overwhelmingly supporting John Kerry and those
viewing the war’s worth positively supporting the president in large numbers
5. It appears likely that there will be significant ticket splitting occurring in the
Lehigh Valley this fall, with more local voters leaning towards Senator Kerry in
his election bid in comparison with support for other Democrats seeking seats in
Congress.
6. Senator Arlen Specter maintains a strong lead over Congressmen Joe Hoeffel
among Lehigh valley voters in the race to represent Pennsylvania in the United
States Senate.
7. In the race for the 15th Congressional Seat being vacated by Pat Toomey, State
Senator Charlie Dent is holding a considerable lead over his Democratic opponent
Joe Driscoll.
METHODOLOGY: The following key findings report summarizes data collected in a
telephone survey of 440 registered voters in the Lehigh Valley of Pennsylvania between
Septemberl 27 and Oct 3, 2004. The sample of phone numbers used in the survey was
generated by Genesys Sampling Systems of Ft. Washington, PA. Interviewing was
conducted by the staff of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion. The
number of completions results in a margin of error of +/- 4.7% at the 95% confidence
interval. However the margin of errors for sub groups such as registered Democrats and
Republicans is larger due to smaller sample size. Percentages throughout the survey have
been rounded upward at the .5 mark, thus many totals in the results will not equal 100%.
The survey questionnaire was designed by Christopher Borick, Ph.D. of the Muhlenberg
College Institute of Public Opinion in consultation with staff members of the Morning
Call. Analysis and report writing were completed by the Muhlenberg College Institute of
Public Opinion under the direction of Dr. Borick.
THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY
With election day just under a month away, John Kerry leads President George W. Bush
by six points in the Lehigh Valley. Among registered voters in Lehigh and Northampton
counties, 47% say they will be voting for Kerry on November 2, while 41% say they will
be voting for Bush, with just 6% of registered voters still undecided who to vote for.
When voters are asked to choose among Bush, Kerry, or independent candidate Ralph
Nader, Kerry remains in the lead, by a slightly slimmer margin. When Nader is in the
race, Kerry leads 44% to Bush’s 39%, with Nader receiving 5% of the vote. These are
among the key findings in the most recent Morning Call/Muhlenberg College survey of
voters in the Lehigh Valley.
Since we began tracking this race in late December of 2003, we have seen a gradual
decline in President Bush’s favorability within the Lehigh Valley, and a steady increase
in unfavorable ratings. As can be seen in Table One below, Bush’s favorability in the
Valley has declined by 10% since last December, while conversely his level of
unfavorable ratings has risen 13%. As for Senator Kerry, there has been an expected
Increase in his name recognition since last year, yet his ratio of favorable to unfavorable
rating has remained very constant.
TABLE ONE
What is your impression of the following candidates…George W. Bush?
September 2004 May 2004 March 2004 December 2003
Favorable
44%
50%
51%
54%
Unfavorable
50%
43%
44%
37%
Neutral/Not sure
6%
6%
5%
9%
Have not heard of him
0%
1%
<1%
<1%
John Kerry?
Favorable
Unfavorable
Neutral/Not sure
Have not heard of him
September 2004
46%
44%
9%
0%
May 2004
40%
40%
17%
3%
March 2004
45%
39%
14%
2%
December 2003
31%
28%
17%
24%
Looking closely at the characteristics of the people voting for John Kerry, we see
that Kerry is pulling on traditional Democratic bases. Kerry leads in the Lehigh Valley
among women, by a ten-point margin. Forty-nine percent of women indicate they will be
voting for Kerry, while 39% say they will be voting for Bush. Among men, Kerry and
Bush are in a dead heat, with Bush receiving 44% of men’s votes and Kerry receiving
45%. Worth noting is the percentage of women who remain undecided as to whom to
vote for in the Presidential Election. Among registered voters, 9% of women remain
undecided, while 3% of men are undecided as to whom to vote for. In the spring of 2004,
Kerry led among female voters, but Bush commanded a substantial lead among male
voters, which is traditionally the gender gap in recent presidential elections. Since the
spring, however, women’s votes remain relatively unchanged, but male voters have
shifted in favor of Kerry. A full breakdown of voter preferences by gender is listed in
Table One below.
TABLE TWO
Presidential Preference by Gender (Spring and Fall 2004)
Male
Female
Spring
Spring
Fall
Fall
2004
2004
2004
2004
John Kerry
35%
49%
45%
49%
George W. Bush
54%
37%
44%
39%
Unsure
5%
7%
3%
9%
Kerry also leads among voters who are under 35 years of age, and over 65 years
old. Fifty-three percent of registered voters between the ages of 18 and 34 say they will
be voting for Kerry, while 34% of 18-34 year-olds indicate they will be voting for the
President. Among senior citizens, a traditionally Democratic group, Kerry leads in the
Lehigh Valley by a margin of 52% to 42%.
The war in Iraq continues to divide the preferences of Lehigh Valley voters. Of
the people who report that the war in Iraq was worth fighting, 86% of them support
President Bush in the November election, while only 8% of them support Senator Kerry.
Conversely, only 9% of the people who say the war in Iraq was not worth fighting are
supporting the President in his bid for re-election and 80% of them are supporting Kerry.
Even more significant is the relationship between a voter’s candidate preference and
his/her rating of whether or not going to war with Iraq has made the United States safer
from terrorism. Of those who believe that the U.S. is safer since it has gone to war with
Iraq, 91% are planning to vote for President Bush, while just 6% are planning to vote for
Senator Kerry. Of those who believe that going to war with Iraq has not made the United
States safer from terrorism, 12% say they will be voting for Bush and 74% say they will
be voting for Kerry.
TABLE THREE
Voter’s Candidate Preference by Whether Going to War with Iraq has made the
United States Safer from Terrorism
Vote for Bush Vote for Kerry Undecided
Going to war with Iraq has
91%
6%
1%
made U.S. safer from terrorism
Going to war with Iraq has not
12%
74%
10%
made U.S. safer from terrorism
A significant relationship also exists between a voter’s candidate preference and
his/her belief as to whether the United States has found clear evidence that Iraq supported
al-Qaeda. Of those who believe that the U.S. has found a link between Saddam Hussein
and al-Qaeda, 76% report that they will vote for Bush, while 18% say they will vote for
Kerry.
During the race for the presidency much has been made of the effect of religious
affiliation on voter preference. Most notably, the Catholic vote has received considerable
attention because of the contrast between John Kerry’s status as a practicing Catholic,
and his differences with church teachings on issues such as abortion. Among Lehigh
Valley Catholics we find Kerry to be leading Bush by a margin of 52% to 42%.
Conversely, The president maintains a 50% to 44% lead among Valley Protestants.
Given Kerry’s lead among Catholics and Bush’s lead among protestants (the largest
religious group within the valley), the vote of individuals from faiths outside Christianity
and from individuals who are not affiliated with a religion are quite important. More
specifically, Kerry leads Bush by a margin of to 56% to 27% among Lehigh Valley
residents who are non-Christian or not religious.
As may be expected, one’s area of residence appears to impact their preference for
president. Within the Valley’s urban core of Allentown, Easton and Bethlehem, the
Massachusetts Senator maintains a strong 54%-37% margin over the current chief
executive of the nation. Conversely, Bush is doing best in the Valley’s more rural
communities, holding a slight 52% to 47% lead over Kerry. With the urban rural split in
place, the Valley’s growing suburbs appear to be an exceptionally key battleground. The
findings from this study show a dead heat, with both candidates receiving 44% of local
voter support.
THE WAR IN IRAQ
Lehigh Valley voters continue to be critical of the war in Iraq and the ongoing war on
terror. When asked to consider the costs and benefits to the U.S. of fighting the war in
Iraq and whether or not the war was worth fighting, 40% of Lehigh Valley voters say that
the war was worth fighting, compared to 50% who say the war was not worth fighting.
Ten percent of voters are undecided about the worthiness of the war. Compared to our
last Valley survey in May of 2004, support for the war in Iraq continues to lag behind
opposition. In the spring, 43% viewed the war as worth fighting, but just 7% were not
sure. Now, 40% say the war was worth fighting and 10% are unsure.
TABLE FOUR
Was the War with Iraq Worth Fighting? (Spring and Fall 2004)
Spring 2004 Fall 2004
Yes, war was worth fighting
43%
40%
No, war was not worth fighting
50%
50%
Unsure
7%
10%
While Lehigh Valley voters do not generally believe that going to war with Iraq has made
them safer from terrorism, they do report that the United States is safer than it was prior
to September 11, 2001. Forty-eight percent of Valley residents report that the country is
safer from terrorism since 9/11, while 33% say the country is not safer. Fourteen percent
say there is no difference and six percent are not sure. When asked if going to war with
Iraq has made the country safer however, the majority of Lehigh Valley residents
reported that the war did not made the country safer. Fifty-seven percent of Valley voters
said that going to war with Iraq has not made the country safer from terrorism, 33% said
the country was safer now and 11% were not sure. This interesting dichotomy may help
explain the continued preference of the president as a better candidate to protect the
nation from terrorism , even if the campaign in Iraq is viewed fairly negatively. By a
margin of 65% to 28% (7% unsure), individuals who indicate the country is safer from
terrorism than before 9-11 plan to vote for the President in November. Conversely, for
those individuals who see the country as less safe than before September 11th
TABLE FIVE
Safety of the United States
Compared to before September
Do you think going to war with
2001, do you think the United States
Iraq has made the United States
is safer from terrorism or less safe?
safer from terrorism or not?
Safer from
terrorism
Less safe from
terrorism
No difference/
Not sure
48%
33% (35% in May)
33%
57% (58% in May)
20%
11% (6% in May)
THE 15th CONGESSIONAL DISTRICT
In the race to fill the seat of Congressman Pat Toomey, Republican State Senator
Charlie Dent appears to have a large lead over Democratic candidate Joe Driscoll. More
precisely, Dent leads Driscoll by a margin of over two to one, with 53% of 15th district
voters preferring Dent in comparison to 20% supporting Driscoll at this time. Since our
last survey of the 15th District race in May Dent has solidified his position as frontrunner
for the Lehigh Valley’s seat in the United States House of Representatives.
The wide gap may be explained by a number of factors. First, while Dent
maintains a fairly strong favorability rating among Valley voters, Driscoll currently
possesses a poor ratio of favorable to unfavorable opinion. Perhaps fueled by his status
as an “outsider” to the district, Driscoll is viewed favorably by only 17% of Valley
voters compared to the 34% who view him negatively. The remaining 49% of local
voters either haven’t heard of Driscoll, or were unsure how they view him.
A great strength for Dent his ability to pull Democratic voters away from their
party’s standard bearer. Among Lehigh Valley Democrats Dent is preferred to Driscoll
by a margin of 44% to 28%. While doing quite well among 15th Congressional District
Democrats, Dent is maintaining an overwhelming 69% to 12% lead among GOP voters in
the district.
Comparing voter preferences on the presidential race to voter preference on the
15 congressional district race we see that there is a high degree of anticipated ticket
splitting in the Valley. For example, among voters in the 15th District supporting John
Kerry for President, we find, 39% voting for Republican Charlie Dent, and 32% voting
for Joe Driscoll, with 29% either unsure (28%) or voting for another candidate (1%).
th
THE PENNSYLVANIA SENATE RACE
In the race for the United States Senate in Pennsylvania, incumbent Senator
Arlen Specter is maintaining a strong lead over his Democratic challenger Representative
Joe Hoeffell. As in a recent statewide poll of Pennsylvania voters by Quinnipiac
University, Specter holds a significant 50% to 26% lead over Hoeffel in the Lehigh
Valley
The Senior Senator from the Commonwealth is maintaining a fairly positive
favorability rating among local voters, rebounding from the difficult primary fight in the
spring that had pushed his ratings in the Lehigh Valley downward. While not suffering
from a favorabile to unfavorable ratio much worse than Specter’s numbers, Hoeffel
continues to fight against a significant name recognition gap. In the Lehigh Valley 20%
of registered voters have not heard of him, with another 28% unsure how to rate him.
Lehigh Valley Congressional and Presidential Races
Fall 2004
FREQUENCIES
What is your current age?
18-34
18%
35-44
17%
45-54
23%
55-64
18%
Over 65
24%
Are you a registered voter?
Yes
100%
No
0%
Not sure
0%
Refused
0%
How likely are you to vote in the November election?
Definitely
Very likely Not likely Definitely not
going to vote
to vote
to vote
going to vote
86%
11%
2%
1%
Which political party are you currently registered with?
Democrat Republican Independent Other
45%
41%
10%
1%
Not sure
Refused
1%
0%
Not sure
2%
Refused
1%
Now I would like to ask you some questions about the candidates running for the 15th
congressional district seat. For each candidate I mention, please tell me if your view of
him is favorable or unfavorable. First, Charlie Dent?
Favorable
54%
Unfavorable
13%
Never heard of him
15%
Neutral
5%
Not sure
12%
Refused
2%
Next, Joe Driscoll?
Favorable
Unfavorable
17%
34%
Never heard of him
21%
Neutral
8%
Not sure
19%
Refused
2%
If the election for the 15th congressional district seat was held today and the race was
between Charlie Dent and Joe Driscoll, whom would you vote for?
Charlie Dent Joe Driscoll Other Neither Not sure Refused
53%
20%
0%
2%
23%
3%
How confident are you that you will vote for Charlie Dent?
Somewhat Not too Not confident
Very confident
confident confident
at all
65%
29%
3%
1%
Not sure
Refused
1%
2%
How confident are you that you will vote for Joe Driscoll?
Somewhat Not too Not confident
Very confident
Not sure
confident confident
at all
54%
38%
7%
1%
0%
Are you leaning more toward voting for Joe Driscoll or Charlie Dent?
Joe Driscoll Charlie Dent Not sure Refused
5%
12%
81%
2%
Refused
0%
Now I have some questions regarding the candidates for the Pennsylvania Senate race.
For each candidate I mention, please tell me if your view of him is favorable or
unfavorable. First, Arlen Specter?
Favorable
Unfavorable
Never heard of him Neutral Not sure Refused
50%
30%
4%
5%
9%
3%
Next, Joe Hoeffel?
Favorable
Unfavorable
26%
23%
Never heard of him
20%
Neutral
10%
Not sure
18%
Refused
3%
If the race for the Pennsylvania Senate seat was held today and the race was between
Arlen Specter and Joe Hoeffel, whom would you vote for?
Arlen Spector Joe Hoeffel Neither Other Not sure Refused
50%
26%
4%
0%
16%
4%
Now I have some questions regarding the upcoming presidential election. For each
candidate I mention, please tell me if your view of him is favorable or unfavorable. First,
George W. Bush?
Favorable
Unfavorable
Never heard of him Neutral Not sure Refused
43%
48%
0%
4%
2%
3%
Next, John Kerry?
Favorable
Unfavorable
45%
43%
Never heard of him
0%
Neutral
6%
Not sure
3%
Refused
3%
If the presidential election was held today and the race was between George W. Bush and
John Kerry, whom would you vote for?
George W. Bush John Kerry Other Neither Not sure Refused
41%
47%
1%
1%
6%
3%
How certain are you that you will be voting for George W. Bush?
Very certain Somewhat certain Not too certain Not certain at all
86%
10%
3%
0%
Not sure
0%
Refused
0%
How certain are you that you will be voting for John Kerry?
Very certain Somewhat certain Not too certain Not certain at all
84%
14%
1%
1%
Not sure
0%
Refused
0%
Are you leaning more toward voting for George W. Bush or John Kerry?
George W. Bush John Kerry Not sure
20%
20%
61%
If the race were between George W. Bush, John Kerry, and Ralph Nader, whom would
you vote for?
George W. Bush John Kerry Ralph Nader
None
Other Not sure Refused
39%
44%
5%
1%
1%
6%
3%
What issue do you consider to be the most important issue facing the Lehigh Valley?
Redevelopment/
Economy/
War/National
Healthcare
Suburban
Taxes Education Other
Jobs
Security
Sprawl
49%
10%
9%
5%
5%
4%
12%
What issue do you consider to be the most important issue facing the United States at this
time?
War/National
Economy/Jobs
Healthcare
Taxes
Other
Not sure
Security
64%
17%
8%
1%
9%
1%
Next, I have just a few questions about terrorism and the war in Iraq. How concerned are
you that you or your family will become the victim of terrorism in the future?
Very
Somewhat
Not very
Not concerned
Not sure Refused
concerned
concerned
concerned
at all
22%
42%
24%
8%
1%
4%
Compared to before September 11, 2001, do you think the country is safer from terrorism
or less safe from terrorism?
Safer Not safer No difference Not sure Refused
46%
32%
14%
5%
4%
In general, do you think going to war with Iraq has made America safer from terrorism,
or not?
Not safer from
Safer from terrorism
Not sure Refused
terrorism
31%
55%
10%
3%
Is it your impression that the U.S. has or has not found clear evidence in Iraq that Saddam
Hussein was working closely with the al-Qaeda terrorist organization?
Yes No Not sure Refused
34% 47%
16%
3%
All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United
States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting or not?
Not
sure
6%
Yes
38%
No
48%
Not sure
10%
Refused
4%