Rapid Estimates of U.S. GDP:
BEA’s Dissemination of and Communication
Policy for “Advance” GDP Estimates
Dave Wasshausen
International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and
Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends
Ottawa, Canada
www.bea.gov
May 27-29, 2009
Releasing “Advance” Estimate
▪ “Advance” estimates of GDP released
toward the end of the first month after
the end of the quarter
▪ Schedule of following years GDP release
dates are published in the Fall
(http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/news_release_sort_
national.htm)
www.bea.gov
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Releasing “Advance” Estimate
▪ Final GDP review conducted by Director and
other senior staff under high-security (literally
“lock-up”) the day prior to official release
▪ Only after data are approved and finalized, prerelease of GDP provided to the Council of
Economic Advisors for transmittal to the
President
▪ Media “lock-up” briefing one hour prior to
official release (8:30 a.m.)
www.bea.gov
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Revision Cycles
▪ Revision cycles for BEA’s GDP accounts
are well documented:
 A Guide to the National Income and Product
Accounts of the United States (2006)
(http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf )
 Measuring the Economy: A Primer on GDP and the
National Income and Product Accounts (2007)
(http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipa_primer.pdf )
 NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S.
National Income and Product Accounts (2008)
(http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/NIPAhandbookch1-4.pdf )
www.bea.gov
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BEA’s Data Dissemination Policy
▪ BEA has long-standing procedures that are
designed to ensure that data dissemination to
all interested members of the public occurs
simultaneously
▪ Objectivity of BEA estimates fostered by the
publication of methodologies and assumptions
that enable replication of the estimates and
thereby provide an independent check on the
credibility and objectivity of the estimates.
www.bea.gov
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Importance of Transparency
▪ Advance estimate based on partial source
data and BEA assumptions
▪ Providing details regarding source data
and assumptions is critical
▪ Technical Note and Key Assumptions
Table accompany each “Advance”
estimate
www.bea.gov
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Published Key Assumptions
Table A. KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ADVANCE ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2009
Jan.
Change in private inventories:
Change in inventories for nondurable manufacturing
Change in inventories for merchant wholesale and retail industries other than
motor vehicles and equipment
Net exports:
U.S. exports of goods, international-transactions-accounts basis
U.S. imports of goods, international-transactions-accounts basis
2009
Feb.
Mar.*
-28.8
-30.8
-33.6
-53.5
-54.3
-109.0
986.9
1550.0
1016.3
1458.6
975.0
1460.1
*Assumption.
www.bea.gov
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Dissemination and Communication
▪ Key source data and assumptions
published for "advance" estimates
(http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/GDPSRCE.xls)
▪ Providing these details mitigates
“surprises” when we eventually publish
the preliminary estimate
www.bea.gov
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Technical Note
▪ Provides background information about
the relevant source data and estimating
methods used to produce the estimates
presented in the GDP news release. For
example:
 Information regarding the “American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009” and
the “Troubled Asset Relief Program ” and
their impact on measuring GDP
www.bea.gov
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Communication
▪ Regular communication with users and the
press is key, never-ending process!
▪ Continuous updating through a wide range of
media is required:
 Explanation of the goal of the early estimates, their accuracy,
and the revision process
 Transparency of assumptions, source data, and methods:
 Explanation of special factors affecting estimates: A “no
surprises” policy
www.bea.gov
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Communication
▪ Building consensus among “experts” on the accuracy,
integrity, and conceptual soundness of source data and
methods.
▪ Publish regular revision studies
▪ Relevant and timely FAQs (e.g. treatment of disasters,
economic stimulus acts, federal financial
interventions, etc.)
▪ Data users conferences/briefings
▪ Survey of Current Business articles
www.bea.gov
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Conclusion
Dissemination and communication goals
for “advance” GDP estimates:
 Equal Access
 Transparency
 Well-informed data users
www.bea.gov
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