Impact of Global Economic Crisis
on Some Economic and Financial Egyptian
Indicators
Monthly indicators
CPI and PPI reflect the global economic and
financial crises impacts specially PPI which
show a negative sign as a result of crude oil
price deterioration . On the other hand CPI
reflects the government efforts to lower
inflation rate from the highest level 23.6% in
Aug. 2008 to 13.5% Feb. 2009
Monthly indicators (cont.)
 Growth rate of liquidity reflects that conservative
actions taken by Central Bank of Egypt helped to contain
the effect of the first wave of the global crises . From Oct.
2008 ,domestic liquidity growth rate reached around 15%
and declined to 9.5% in Jan. 2009.
 Change in the Egyptian Exchange index
(CASE 30)
reflect the recognized effect of global crises as the index
shows lowest level in Feb. 2009 due to the decline of
foreign investment in Egypt as investors tried to support
their financial position in their home countries.
Monthly Indicators
Source : CAPMAS
Price Indices Inflation Rate For Both CPI & PPI
Annual Inflation Rate
(percentage change )
37.0
33.8
32.0
27.0
23.6
22.0
17.0
13.5
12.0
7.0
2.0
-3.0
PPI
Feb-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Mar-07
Feb-07
Jan-07
Dec-07
CPI
Jan-09
-7.6
-8.0
Monthly Indicators
Source : CAPMAS
Reverse Trend of Inflation of PPI
Producers Price Index ( PPI)
2004/2005
37.0
7.00
33.8
32.0
5.00
27.0
3.00
22.0
17.0
1.00
12.0
-1.00
7.0
-3.00
2.0
Monthly growth rate(R.Scale)
-3.0
-5.00
Annual growth rate(L.Scale)
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
-7.00
Jan-07
-8.0
Growth rate
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
M0
M1
M2
Jan-2009
Dec-2008
Nov-2008
Oct-2008
Sep-2008
Aug-2008
Jul-2008
Jun-2008
May-2008
Apr-2008
Mar-2008
Feb-2008
Jan-2008
Dec-2007
Nov-2007
Oct-2007
Sep-2007
Aug-2007
Jul-2007
Jun-2007
May-2007
Apr-2007
Mar-2007
Feb-2007
Jan-2007
Monthly Indicators
Source : CBE
Growth Rate of M0 & M1 & M2
Some Main Macroeconomic Indecators
Egyptian Exchange Index case 30
3597.6
2000
Feb-2009
Jan-2009
Dec-2008
Nov-2008
6000
3874.9
4596.5
4205.9
4716.3
9827.3
11057.3
11786.5
11357.4
11335.2
10318.1
10549.7
9251.2
8449.6
7059.2
8000
Oct-2008
Sep-2008
Aug-2008
Jul-2008
Jun-2008
May-2008
Apr-2008
Mar-2008
Feb-2008
Jan-2008
Dec-2007
9721.7
9390.9
8687.8
7749
12000
Nov-2007
Oct-2007
Sep-2007
Aug-2007
8244.3
7803.4
10000
Jul-2007
Jun-2007
Case 30
Monthly Indicators
Source : Egyptian Exchange
Change of the Egyptian Exchange
Index (CASE 30)
Egyptian Exchange Index case 30
14000
4000
0
Quarterly indicators
Quarterly indicators reflect the impact of global
crises on some component of balance of
payments as follows :
-Trade balance fell to its record deficit in 2nd
quarter of 2008/2009 of 9% compared with
pervious one.
-Exports proceeds declined about 33% in2nd
quarter compared to 1st quarter of 2008/2009
Quarterly indicators (cont.)
• petroleum exports dropped sharply 54.5%
from 1st to 2nd quarter of 2008/2009
- Net portfolio investment in Egypt declined to
the lowest level in second quarter 2008/2009
compared with 4th quarter 2007/2008 (from 22.9 to -3902.4 US$ mn) due to decrease of
the foreign investments.
• Overall balance reversed from 459 US $ mn
to -1005.8 US$ mn
Source : CBE
Quarterly Indicators
Balance of Payments
Q22008-2009
Q12008-2009
Q42007-2008
Q32007-2008
Q22007-2008
Q12007-2008
Q42006-2007
Q32006-2007
Trade Balance
-3.0
-4.0
-4.0
-5.2
-5.0
-6.0
-7.0
-8.0
-9.0
-10.0
-5.6
-5.5
-6.6
-6.1
-7.0
-7.6
Quarterly Indicators
Source : CBE
Balance of Payments (contd.)
6119
8518
7734.7
7113.3
5989.8
8162.9
5232.5
5433.4
3498.6
3898.7
4552.4
1871.4
4109.4
Export Proceeds
Petroleum Exports
2009
Q22008-
2009
Q12008-
2008
Q42007-
2008
Q32007-
2008
Q22007-
2008
2522.9
Q12007-
2007
2781.5
Q42006-
2269.9
2007
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Q32006-
US$ mn
EXPORTS
Quarterly Indicators
Source : CBE
Balance of Payments (contd.)
US $ mn
-2000
-3000
Q22008-2009
Q12008-2009
Q42007-2008
Q32007-2008
Q22007-2008
Q12007-2008
-303.5
0
-1000
Q42006-2007
1000
Q32006-2007
Portfolio Investment in Egypt Net
-1165.2
383.2
171.6
-1430.4
-22.9
-3484.9
-4000
-5000
-3902.4
Quarterly Indicators
Source : CBE
Balance of Payments (contd.)
Overall Balance
2500
2169.7
1936.1
2000
1828.3
US$ mn
1500
1000
459
1150.4
500
0
505.6
206.8
-500
-1000
-1005.8
-1500
Q22008-2009
Q12008-2009
Q42007-2008
Q32007-2008
Q22007-2008
Q12007-2008
Q42006-2007
Q32006-2007
Annual indicators
• Annual growth rate of GDP is expected to
decline from around 7.0% ( average of the
last tree years )to about 4.8% in 2008/2009
• The growth rate of some key sectors
showed a decrease during 2008/2009 .
restaurants &hotel sector declined sharply
to 0.6% in 2008/2009 compared with 15.6
in 2007/2008
Source : MOP
Annual Indicators
Some Basic Macroeconomic Indicators
8
Growth Rate
7
6
5
4
2004/2005
2005/2006
Annua real growth rate of GDP at Factor Cost
Annua real growth rate of Total Domistic production
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
Annua real growth rate of GDP at Market Price
Source : MOP
Annual Indicators
Some Basic Macroeconomic Indicators
Annual Real Growth Rates In Some Sectors
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2004/2005
Manufacturing
2005/2006
Construction
2006/2007
Financial
2007/2008
2008/2009
Restaurants & Hotels