International Workshop On Measuring GDP by Final Demand Approach 25-27 April 2011 Shenzhen, China Country Presentation Presented by Yamuna Rajapakse, Statistician Udaya Warnasiri, Statistical Officer National Accounts Division,Sri Lanka Outline Introduction Historical background of compilation of Final Consumption of households (Private Consumption Expenditure) PCE UN-SNA1993 suggestions and formats on PCE Data sources for compilation of PCE Presentation Formats/Framework for PCE in our practices Compilation methodology of PCE Issues 1 Introduction The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita at current prices was US $ 2,399 for the year 2010 in Sri Lanka. Compilation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimates are being compiled by using three approaches of compilation of GDP. The Product approach is supply side estimate of GDP and the expenditure approach is demand side compilation approach of Gross Domestic Product /Expenditure (GDE). GDE consists of Main five sub components 1) Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PCE) including Non Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH) 2) Government Final Consumption Expenditure 3) Gross Capital Formation (GCF) 4) Exports 5) Imports 2 Historical background of compilation of PCE Compilation of National Accounts Estimates (NAE)for Sri Lanka was introduced in1947 by Dr. B. B. Das Gupta. This was published as an appendix to the report of the Commission on Social Services in 1947 and this includes NAE series 1937- 1938 and 1943– 1944. (Vide Sessional paper No. Xii, 1947). This was continued on a regular basis and released through a publication on National Accounts of Sri Lanka by K. Williams then the director of Department of Census and Statistics (DCS). DCS has adopted this framework for the compilation of NAE until late 1950,s. This includes only few tables such as Gross Domestic Expenditure (GDE), Imports, 3 Exports, Domestic consumption etc. Historical background of Compilation of PCE GDE estimates was compiled and released by using expenditure approach at current market prices for Sri Lanka. Until 1958 these estimates were compiled only at purchaser prices. During this period, price changes were at insignificant level or less than 5%. First constant price GDE estimate series was started from 1963 as the base year. This publication includes only six tables. 4 UN-SNA1993 Suggestions and formats on PCE Scope of PCE is “Use of Goods and Services for direct satisfaction of human needs and wants” Values at Purchasers prices or current market prices and all estimates at accrual basis. This includes expenditure of residents abroad and excludes expenditure of non-residents in the country. Suggested Classifications are CPC- Central Product Classification and COICOP- Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose 5 UN-SNA1993 Suggestions and formats on PCE Production of Household Services Eg. However, production of services for own final use is excluded, a. Cleaning and small scale maintenance by own tenants and owners b. Cleaning & Services for household durables vehicles by owners. c. Preparation of meals, caring and instructions for children d. Caring of sick & old people etc. e. Transportation of household members. 6 Data sources for compilation of PCESri Lanka Product approach Estimates and their Expenditure Estimates or Users of Production-DCS Household Income and Expenditure Surveys (HIES)- once in every five years-DCS Foreign trade data /Imports and Exports- Customs Department Socio demographic data/ Mid year population/External migration (less than one year)/ Tourist arrivals , Government Budget estimates- Actual Government transfers -Balance of Payment (BOP)-CBSL Price Statistics-DCS 7 Presentation Formats/Framework for PCE in our practices The following selected tables are the relevant tables on PCE and those are presented below. Summary indicators of GDP Gross Domestic Expenditure at Current Market Prices and Constant prices (Two Tables) Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Current Market Prices and Private Final Consumption Expenditure by ICP sub Headings. Supply and Use/Disposition (Agriculture) 8 Presentation Formats/Framework for PCE- our practices PCE is given in this table as a total under PCE which was compiled by using expenditure approach for GDP at current and constant (2002) prices. TABLE 6 - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES Rs. Million Item 2002 Value 1. Private consumption expenditure 2008 % Share Value % Share 2009@ % Change Value % Share % Change 1,166,027 71.3 3,085,296 70.0 28.4 3,103,806 64.3 0.6 2. General government consumption expenditure 208,085 12.7 713,788 16.2 30.6 851,549 17.6 19.3 3. Gross domestic fixed capital formation 328,406 20.1 1,115,310 25.3 26.1 1,147,440 23.8 2.9 40,000 2.4 99,937 2.3 -13.6 36,214 0.8 -63.8 5. Exports of goods and services 571,195 34.9 1,095,679 24.8 5.2 1,030,861 21.4 -5.9 6. Less: Imports of goods and services 677,676 41.4 1,699,328 38.5 20.2 1,344,785 27.9 -20.9 Gross Domestic Product 1,636,037 100.0 4,410,682 100.0 23.2 4,825,085 100.0 9.4 4. Changes in stocks* @ Provisional * Including statistical discrepancy 9 Presentation Formats/Framework for PCE in our practices TABLE 14 - PRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE BY OBJECT AT CURRENT PRICES Rs.Million 2002 Object of Expenditure Value 2008 %Sha %chan Value re ge %Sha Value re 2009@ %Shar %chan e ge 1 Food, Beverages and Tobacco 557,445 47.8 1,166,112 37.8 18.5 1,186,103 38.2 1.7 2 Clothing and Footwear 100,541 8.6 176,419 5.7 14.2 173,795 5.6 -1.5 3 Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and 125,275 10.7 392,249 12.7 47.4 372,418 12.0 -5.1 34,753 3.0 177,537 5.8 20.0 183,105 5.9 3.1 17,527 1.5 56,687 1.8 40.8 68,277 2.2 20.4 170,084 14.6 671,890 21.8 45.9 654,835 21.1 -2.5 31,669 2.7 110,417 3.6 29.4 90,001 2.9 -18.5 1,672 0.1 2,836 0.1 14.2 3,103 0.1 9.4 20,682 1.8 45,528 1.5 17.9 46,553 1.5 2.3 40,096 3.4 149,835 4.9 48.7 170,691 5.5 13.9 115,523 9.9 236,946 7.7 10.5 250,977 8.1 5.9 49,239 4.2 101,160 3.3 9.9 96,053 3.1 -5.0 4 Furnishings, Household equipment and Routine maintenane of the house 5 Health 6 Transport 7 Leisure, Entertainment and Culture 8 Education 9 Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants 10 Miscellaneous goods and services 11 Expenditure abroad of residents 12 Less: Expenditure of non - residents 13 Total Private Consumption Expenditure @ Provisional 1,166,027 100 3,085,296 100 28.4 3,103,806 100 0.6 10 Presentation Formats/Framework for PCE in our practices TABLE 15 - PRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE BY OBJECT AT CONSTANT (2002) PRICES Rs.Million 2002 Object of Expenditure Value 2008 %Sha Value re 2009@ %Sha %chan Value re ge %Shar %chan e ge 1 Food, Beverages and Tobacco 557,445 47.8 623,865 39.5 3.2 635,796 39.7 1.9 2 Clothing and Footwear 100,541 8.6 147,111 9.3 4.5 145,834 9.1 -0.9 3 Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and 125,275 10.7 151,359 9.6 11.2 145,834 9.1 -3.7 4 Furnishings, Household equipment 34,753 3.0 118,431 7.5 4.0 112,180 7.0 -5.3 5 Health 17,527 1.5 38,692 2.5 34.4 46,474 2.9 20.1 170,084 14.6 255,005 16.2 5.2 270,834 16.9 6.2 31,669 2.7 59,406 3.8 17.1 54,487 3.4 -8.3 1,672 0.1 1,998 0.1 8.0 2,026 0.1 1.4 20,682 1.8 12,571 0.8 3.6 12,821 0.8 2.0 40,096 3.4 82,168 5.2 38.1 89,744 5.6 9.2 115,523 9.9 144,133 9.1 7.8 142,629 8.9 -1.0 49,239 4.2 56,589 3.6 0.3 56,090 3.5 -0.9 7.5 1,602,568 6 Transport 7 Leisure, Entertainment and Culture 8 Education 9 Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants 10 Miscellaneous goods and services 11 Expenditure abroad of residents 12 Less: Expenditure of non - residents 13 Total Private Consumption Expenditure @ Provisional 1,166,027 100 1,578,150 100 100 1.5 11 Presentation Formats/Framework for PCE in our practices TABLE 9 - SUPPLY AND DISPOSITION OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR COMMODITIES AT CURRENT PRICES - 2009 Rs.Million. Supply of Commodities Value Commodity Groups Inputs Taxes and Added at Valuation Gross Subsidies Tax Imports Output Subsidy Total Supply Impor ts Adjustme nt C.I.F. Duty and Value Dispo- Factor sition D i s p o s i t i o n of C o m m o d i t i e s Intermediat Household e Final Consumptio Consumptio n n Change Gross Export in Domestic Fixed Capital F.O.B. Stocks Wastage Value Formation 01. Tea 7,795 64,156 - - 71,951 - - - 71,951 71,951 - - - - - 02. Rubbr 5,070 19,278 - - 24,348 - - - 24,348 24,348 - - - - - 03. Cocount & Toddy 9,883 49,983 - - 59,866 - - 12,181 72,047 21,268 49,378 313 - 932 156 19,650 127,319 - 26,935 120,034 - - - 120,034 99,478 8,626 11,929 - - - 05. Tobbaco 147 773 - - 920 546 - 229 1,695 1,595 - 80 - 20 - 06. Betel & Arecanut 159 3,024 - - 3,183 - - 2,091 5,274 29 4,641 (241) - 845 - 80,852 107,384 - - 188,236 1,175 - 101,097 290,508 26,098 263,302 - 62 1,046 206 3,253 - - 3,459 1,446 - 1,317 6,222 1,386 4,616 - 54 99 09. Highlandcrops 6,917 52,185 - 50 59,052 3,589 - 41,252 103,894 5,474 96,045 - - 1,855 520 10. Minor Export crops 1,454 13,263 - 177 14,540 - - 3,765 18,305 - 3,765 1,558 - 12,982 - 11. Plantation devolopment 3,723 11,782 - 613 14,892 - - - 14,892 - - - 14,892 - - 12. Firewood &forosty 1,577 35,861 - - 37,438 - - 5,166 42,604 23,813 18,518 13. Livestock 55,929 52,412 - - 108,341 - - 28,700 137,041 19,913 14. Fisheries 26,713 79,571 - 106,267 1,815 - 4,751 112,833 5,223 205,772 04. Paddy 07. Vegetable 08. Fruits 17 15. Miscellaneous Agricultural Products Total 66 145 - 128 - 117,128 - - - - 34,412 62,585 - - 15,836 - 26,115 12,535 13,580 - - - - 1,047,761 342,299 642,184 13,850 14,892 32,715 1,822 5,556 15,336 - - 20,892 - 225,630 635,580 - 27,792 833,418 8,571 - 12 Compilation methodology of PCE PCE by objects is a table prepared indicating summarized sub categories of PCE. This is compiled by using the production estimates which is having separate estimates to indicate users or distribution of production, exports and imports. This is being compiled in detailed for ICP sub categories (155 sub headings) of PCE using the similar kind of procedure. 13 Compilation methodology of PCE The supply and disposition Table includes the supply of group of products which was complied by using commodity approach and their users or demand side information was also given. So the demand side information includes the Private consumption expenditure. This was compiled using the production estimates of products or group of products and the relevant data sources were given earlier. 14 Issues Identifying these sectors, data collection framework should be strengthen/developed to cover these underground, illegal, informal sectors & household production for own use. •Activities of Non observed economy are; •1. Under ground and 2. Illegal •3. Informal and •4. For undertaken by households for their own final use. •These are problem areas where data 15 gaps can be seen.