Challenges in Economic Statistics
-- How they evolved in Japan -Shigeru Kawasaki
Statistical Research and Training Institute
Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications,
Japan
Presentation at the International Forum on
Monitoring National Development: Issues and Challenges
Beijing, People’s Republic of China, 27-29 September 2011
Views expressed in this presentation are personal, and do not
necessarily represent the official position of the Government.
Introduction

Needs for economic statistics are varied among countries,
and affected by various factors, such as the level of
economic development, political conditions, cultural
background, etc.

Challenges of economic statistics are also varied among
countries, and they shift over time.

To provide a broad perspective, this presentation discusses
the evolution of issues and challenges of economic statistics
in Japan over the last half century.

In this presentation, the challenges in statistics are
discussed for three stages of economic development:
Stage of Rapid Growth (1945-1970)
Stage of Economic Slowdown (1970-1990)
Stage after the Economic Bubble (1990-Present)
Status of the World Economy in early 1950s
– Japan ranked in the lowest group after WW II
Per Capita Net National Product (US$) Annual Average 19
- $249
Greece
Portugal
Turkey
Japan
220
200
210
190
Philippines 150
Egypt
120
Ceylon 110
Rhodesia 100
Thailand 80
Congo
70
Korea
70
Pakistan 70
Kenya
60
India
60
Uganda 50
Burma
50
$250-499
Israel
470
Argentina 460
Puerto Rico 430
Ireland
410
Chile
360
Austria
370
Cuba
310
Malaya
310
Italy
310
S Africa
300
Colombia 250
Panama 250
Lebanon 260
$500-749
France
Norway
Finland
740
740
670
Venezuela 540
Germany 510
Netherlands
500
$750-1000
$1000+
New Zealand
1000
Australia 950
Sweden 950
Luxembourg
890
Belgium 800
UK
780
Iceland
780
Denmark 750
USA
1870
Canada 1310
Switzerland
1010
Source: “Per Capita national Product of Fifty-five Countries: 1952-1954” UN Statistical Office (1957)
Note: Country names are based on the source, but some were shortened due to limited space.
Economic Development of Japan
– Growing fast, and shifting down
Real GDP Growth Rate p.a. (1955-2009)
(%, p.a.)
12.0
11.1
10.0
8.7
9.2
8.0
6.0
4.5
4.0
2.0
4.6
4.4
3.1
1.1
1.5
0.8
0.2
0.0
Source: Computed from the data of “Annual Report on National Accounts” (In Japanese)
Cabinet Office, Government of Japan
1
Stage of Rapid Growth (1)
– Groundwork for statistical development
1946 Statistics Act was enacted (1947).
-1950 Population Census, Establishment Census, Manufactures
Census, Agriculture Census were resumed (1947).
Monthly Industrial Production Survey was initiated (1948).
Housing Survey, Construction Start Statistics, Census of
Commerce, Energy Supply and Demand Statistics,
Monthly Labor Force Survey were initiated (1950).
1951 Monthly Family Income and Expenditure Survey, Unincor-1955
porated Enterprise Survey, R&D Survey and many other
surveys were initiated.
Regular compilation of National Income and Input-Output
Tables was initiated (reference year 1951).
Cabinet decided “Plan for Self-Sustained Economy” based
on economic modeling (1955).
1956- Cabinet decided “Plan to Double National Income” (1960).
-1960
(Target: Real-term NI(1960)X2--- > NI(1970) Achieved)
1
Stage of Rapid Growth (2)
– Key factors in statistical development

Official statistics developed rapidly thanks to the solid legal
and administrative framework. (Statistics Act, 1947)

The censuses (Population, Establishment, etc.) were given
highest priority, and they played key roles for consistent
development of statistics.

Censuses and sample surveys were to complement each
other systematically. Censuses have been taken every five
years, and sample surveys (monthly or annual) have been
taken to fill the gaps between the census years.

National accounts statistics and the input-output tables
promoted the economic policy formulation based on
econometric models.
----> Reliable statistics are needed for good governance.
2
Stage of Economic Slowdown
– Building on the foundations

Declining fertility and population aging became a high
priority issue in social and economic policies.
----> Statisticians and researchers began to collaborate more
actively in social and demographic researches.

Public policies focused on improvement of “quality of life”.
----> Researches on social indicators and welfare measures
were conducted.

Industrial policies aimed at transformation of industrial
structure from traditional industries to electronics, energysaving, knowledge-oriented, and service industries.
----> Business surveys were expanded for improved coverage.


People became more conscious about protection of privacy.
Pressure to government spending reduction became strong.
----> Statistical coordination across government was
strengthened in controlling census and survey taking.
3
Stage after the Economic Bubble (1)
– In search of “Solutions”
<Environment surrounding statistics>
The economic environment is changing drastically, and many
unknown issues are emerging from one to the next.
e.g. Globalization, Knowledge Economy, Financial Deregulation,
ICT, Income Gap and Poverty, Sustainable Growth, Natural
Disaster, Sovereign Debt Crisis, etc.
The
economy is becoming more difficult to predict, and
consensus on policies is becoming more difficult to reach.
The
growth rates have lowered to the equivalent level of
statistical errors, and distinguishing “signal” from “noise” is
becoming more difficult.
Resources
for statistics are diminishing (or not increasing). It
is necessary to concentrate on high priority issues.
3
Stage after the Economic Bubble (2)
– In search of “Solutions”
<Approach for statistical development>
 The coverage of statistical data collection has to be
efficiently expanded to include emerging issues and to
improve data quality. (e.g. Service statistics, Economic
Census 2012, asset prices, financial statistics, productivity)
 Quality of statistics has to be assessed regularly, and efforts
to improve the quality have to be made. At present,
improvement of national accounts statistics, including
implementation of 2008 SNA, is of high priority.
 Development of a more reliable central business register is
in progress. For this purpose, administrative data sources
are found to be useful.
 To enhance relevance of statistics, new findings from
statistics have to be effectively communicated whenever and
wherever possible.
4
Conclusion

In an early stage of economic development, compilation of
the basic set of statistics (e.g. censuses, national accounts)
is of high priority. Establishing a solid framework for
statistical development is necessary.

In a more developed stage, more emphasis has to be
placed on improving quality of statistics, and it requires
good communication with users and data providers.

In Japan, the Economic Census will be taken in early 2012,
and the new business register is being developed for
continuous update by administrative data. National
accounts statistics will be improved with new data sources.
These efforts are expected to help improve the quality and
the value of statistics.
The End
Thank you!