Vulnerability and Adaptation
Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH
Executive Director, WGII TSU
PAHO/WHO Workshop on Vulnerability and
Adaptation Guidance
20 July 2010
Impacts = ƒ
Exposure
Vulnerability
Vulnerability = the degree to which
a system is susceptible to or unable to cope
with the adverse effects of climate change,
including climate variability and extremes
Sensitivity = the degree to which a system is
affected by climate variability and change
Definitions of Vulnerability
Vary Across Sectors
• IPCC definition also states that vulnerability is a
function of the character, magnitude, and rate
of change and variation to which a system is
exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive
capacity
– This views vulnerability as the expected net damage
after all possible adaptation / mitigation and not
current situation
• This definition is from natural hazards research
– Vulnerability determines adaptive capacity vs
adaptive capacity determine vulnerability
Multi-Hazard Map of Africa
2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
Multi-Hazard Map of Asia
2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
Number of Drought Disasters
EMDAT (1974-2004)
2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
People Exposed to Drought
2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
Mortality Risk for Tropical Cyclones
Vulnerability
• For human systems, vulnerability relates to
the consequences of exposure, not to the
exposure itself (i.e. people and communities
are vulnerable to damage and loss rather than
to specific exposures such as flooding)
• Highly dependent on context and scale
– Vulnerability changes over spatial and temporal
scales
– Socioeconomic and biophysical dimensions
Sri Lanka Extensive and Intensive
Loss Reports 1970-2007
2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
Everyone is Vulnerable,
However
• Vulnerability is not evenly distributed
• Vulnerability to one hazard is often quite
different from vulnerability to another
• Vulnerability varies over time and location
• Vulnerability can depend on a wide range of
socioeconomic and biogeophysical factors and
trends
• National level indicators of vulnerability
aggregate across significant differences
Defining levels of
vulnerability for intervention
is a social and political
process that depends on the
question being asked
Prerequisites for Action
•
•
•
•
•
Awareness that a problem exists
Understanding of the causes
A sense that the problem matters
The capability to influence
The political will to deal with the problem
Last 1998
Future vs Current Vulnerability
• Future and current vulnerability do not
necessarily map directly
– Current climate vs. climate change in the absence
of adaptation/ mitigation vs. residual vulnerability
• Some regions and communities will be
particularly affected by changing climate
variability, others by gradual changes in
climate
• Identifying emerging vulnerability hot spots
depends on projections of development
pathways and of climate change impacts
Baseline
Ebi et al. 2005
2025
Ebi et al. 2005
2050
Ebi et al. 2005
Tropical Cyclones Over a 30-Year
Period
2009 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
Adapting to climate change
is not a problem to be
solved, but a process to be
managed
Responding to climate change
involves an iterative risk
management process that
includes both adaptation and
mitigation and takes into account
climate change damages, cobenefits, sustainability, equity
and attitudes to risk
IPCC 2007 Synthesis Report
Addressing Changing Risks
• Existing risks
– Modifying existing strategies and programs
– Reinstitute effective programs that have
been neglected or abandoned
– Apply win/win or no-regrets strategies
• New risks
– Design and implement strategies and programs
that take into account a changing climate and
changing vulnerabilities
Adaptation Measures to Reduce
Health Outcomes from Floods
• Legislative policies: Improve land use planning
• Decision support tools: Early warning systems and
emergency response plans
• Surveillance and monitoring: Alter health data
collection systems to monitor for disease outbreaks
during and after an extreme event
• Infrastructure development: Design infrastructure
to withstand projected extreme events
• Other: Conduct research on effective approaches to
encourage appropriate behavior
Prioritizing Adaptation Options
• Evaluate effectiveness of adaptation options
by certainty, timing, severity, and importance
of impacts
• Evaluate effectiveness of adaptation options
under the following scenarios
–
–
–
–
Current climate
A hotter and drier climate
A hotter and wetter climate
Hotter with more variable precipitation
What Does This Mean?
• We look for:
– Adaptations that make sense anyway
• And make even more sense considering climate change
• Policies that reduce vulnerability to climate variability will
generally reduce risk to climate change
– Marginal adjustments and low cost
– Target of opportunity
– “No regrets”
Thank-you
Observed summer (DecFeb) rain
Highest
malaria
incidence
years
Lowest
malaria
incidence
years
Forecast (Novembermodelled) summer rain
Climate Information
Adaptation