Year on Year % Change
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
2008
Q1
Petroleum Value Added
Oman Case
Innovative Statistical
Frameworks To Meet Global
Challenges
Nominal GDP
Non Petroleum Value Added
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
Sabir Al-Harbi
New York
18 February 2011
Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis
Change (%)
Global GDP Growth
(Percent, quarter over quarter, annualized)
Source: IMF
Global Trends: FOOD CRISIS
KEY INNOVATION IN ECONOMIC
STATISTICS IN OMAN
 Need
for Processing & Producing High
Frequency & Timely Indicators for
Monitoring the Economy
KEY INNOVATION IN ECONOMIC
STATISTICS IN OMAN

I. Development of Price Statistics
Weekly Food Inflation (Short Term)
 Weekly CPI (Long Term)


II. Early Warning Indicators
Quarterly Flash GDP
 Monthly Flash GDP
 Composite Indicators

I- DEVELOPMENT OF PRICE STATISTICS
WEEKLY FOOD INFLATION GAUGE (SHORT TERM)





Some 70 key food items
Leading indicator for CPI and PPI changes
Quick outlook into the very short term
Weekly compilation process
 Saturday-Monday: Field Collection & Data Processing
 Tuesday: Review
 Wednesday: Publish
Data recycled to complement ordinary CPI, PPI, XMPI
compilations
I- DEVELOPMENT OF PRICE STATISTICS
Weekly CPI (Long Term)
Need for a Full Weekly CPI with 1 Day
Timeliness
 Revision of the Data Collection Methodology
 Burden versus Investment (Needs Greater than
Cost)
 Feasibility Study (2012)

II- EARLY WARNING INDICATORS
A. FLASH QUARTERLY GDP (NOWCASTING)
The First Estimate of Overall Economic
Activities
 Imputation for the Last Month of the Quarter
 Timeliness 10 Days After end of the Ref. Period

Activity
GDP share
Primary data source / estimation method
Oil and Gas
41%
Refining and
petrochemicals
Manufacturing
Construction
7%
Actual data on quantity produced and the
corresponded prices from Ministry of Oil and Gas
Monthly Financial statement from the producers
Services
Etc.
41%
4%
7%
Turnover estimates, export values/quantities
Production survey, labor statistics, construction
material index
Production Survey
Ministry of Finance, Sectoral Ministries
QUARTERLY FLASH GDP
Flash GDP
40.0%
30.0%
Change (%)
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Q1 - 09
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
Q2 - 09
Q3 - 09
Q4 - 09
Q1 - 10
Q2 - 10
Q3 - 10
Q4 - 10
ACTUAL VS. FLASH GDP
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
Change (%)
10.0%
0.0%
Q1 - 09
-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
Q2 - 09
Q3 - 09
Q4 - 09
Q1 - 10
Q2 - 10
Q3 - 10
Q4 - 10
II- EARLY WARNING INDICATORS
B. MONTHLY FLASH GDP
o
o
o
Calculated using Production Approach
One Month Timeliness
Utilization of Monthly Short Term Indictors such as:

Administrative Data
Price Statistics
Monthly Survey Results

Monthly Financial Statements of the Large Enterprises


II- EARLY WARNING INDICATORS
B. MONTHLY FLASH GDP
Better timeliness
 Less accuracy, but acceptable
 Availability of strong monthly set of information
 Strengthen the Flash Quarterly GDP
 Strengthen the high frequency indicators

Petroleum Value Added
80
70
80.0
Oman Crude Oil Price
60
60.0
50
Nominal GDP
40
30
20
-10
-20
40.0
20.0
Crude Oil Production
10
0
100.0
0.0
Non Petroleum
Value Added
-30
-40
-50
2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
-20.0
-40.0
-60.0
Year on Year Change % (Oil)
Year on Year Change % (GDP)
90
II- EARLY WARNING INDICATOR
C. COMPOSITE LEADING ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
Need for quick, broad indicator for overall
economic activity for future immediate future
 Extracting signals and producing estimates for a
better understanding of cyclical movements
 This work is currently under construction
 Weighting system will be produced derived

II- EARLY WARNING INDICATOR
C. COMPOSITE LEADING ECONOMIC
INDICATORS
General
Business confidence index
Number of workers
Total retail sales
Government revenue
Hydrocarbon sector
Hydrocarbon sector
Production
Oil price, Oman crude
monthly average price
Real Estate
Building permits, non-gov.
Hotel (4-5 star) revenue
Construction Sector
Business Confidence Index
20%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
30%
15%
15%
7.50%
2.5%
2.5%
2.5%
Financial sector
Money supply, M2
Nominal Interest rate
CPI inflation
MSI stock market index
Foreign Direct Investment
External sector
Total exports
Total imports
30%
10%
5%
5%
5%
5%
12.50%
6.25%
6.25%
CHALLENGES ENCOUNTERED





Rallying for resources
To keep an innovative team
Timeliness, periodicity and availability of high frequency
indicators – historic emphasis annual data
Weekly CPI management
Composite Leading Indicator
 Lack of sufficient indicators
 Methodological improvements in existing data
TO SUMMARIZE


Priorities in Countries May Differ
Improvements of Current Periodicity & Timeliness of
Data Disseminations is the Key to Confront Global
Challenges in Time
Thank you