THE POLICY PERSPECTIVE ON DEVELOPING AN
INTEGRATED STATISTICS PROGRAMME IN SUPPORT
OF 2008 SNA IMPLEMENTATION
Presented by
Hazel Corbin
Statistics Adviser, ECCB
Palm Haven Hotel Saint Lucia
3 to 7 February, 2014
1
OUTLINE
•
•
•
•
•
Integrated Economic Statistics
The needs of ECCU Policymakers
National Strategy for Statistics
Core Set of Indicators Needed
Linking of the SNA Strategy to National
Strategy
• Conclusion
2
Integrated Economic Statistics
• Integrated Economic Statistics (IES) provide a
consistent and reliable assessment of a country’s
economic activity for policy and analytical uses.
• Guidelines are based on Internationally adopted
standards
• The principles include the design of strategic plans
for integration of micro and macro data
3
Integrated Economic Statistics
• Policymakers need IES that are consistent with other
economic statistics and indicators produced by NSS.
• The needs of policymakers should be the basis of a
country’s plans for developing better IEA.
• Some of the benefits of IES are:
– consistency between short-term indicators and
macroeconomic data on the state of the economy
– consistency across sectors in depicting trends
– consistency across countries for key measures such as GDP,
inflation, international trade etc.
4
Integrated Economic Statistics
• Some of the benefits of IES (continued):
–
–
–
–
transparency and consistency in concepts and definitions
greater accuracy in economic data through reconciliation
reduction in reporting burden for business respondents
more relevant statistics that quickly address user needs
• The challenges of IES include:
- Need for resources to be invested in adopting statistical
standards
5
The Statistical Domains Covered in
Integrated Economic Statistics
Domain 1. Demographic and social statistics
1.2 Labour
1.5 Income and consumption
Domain 2. Economic statistics
2.1 Macroeconomic statistics
2.2 Economic accounts
2.3 Business statistics
2.4 Sectoral statistics
2.4.1 Agriculture, forestry, fisheries
2.4.2 Energy
2.4.3 Mining, manufacturing, construction
2.4.4 Transport
2.4.5 Tourism
2.4.6 Banking, insurance, financial statistics
2.5 Government finance, fiscal and public sector statistics
2.6 International trade and balance of payments
2.7 Prices
2.8 Labour costs
2.9 Science, technology and innovation
Domain 3. Environment and multi-domain statistics
3.1 Environment
Domain 4. Methodology of data collection, processing, dissemination and analysis
Domain 5. Strategic and managerial issues of official statistics
6
ECCU COUNTRIES FACE A NUMBER
OF COMMON CHALLENGES
Weak macro framework:
Insufficient growth
High debt
Limited fiscal space
Public Sector
weaknesses
Weak financial resilience
Low competitiveness
and productivity
Dependence on a few
economic sectors
Mismatches between
skills and job market
needs
Vulnerability to Natural
Disasters
Unfavorable investment
climate
Infrastructure gaps
High cost of energy
Low connectivity
Fragile social resilience
7
POLICY ISSUES
• The four major challenges
– 1. Financial Stability, Consolidation and
Development
– 2. Debt Management
– 3. Fiscal Reform; and
– 4. Growth and Competitiveness
8
Policy Targets
• The public debt to GDP across the
region has averaged 84.3 per cent
of GDP for the last 10 years.
• A consequence of the persistent
fiscal deficits is a large public debt
portfolio
• Target is debt to GDP ratio of 60
per cent by 2020
• Per capita GDP for currency union
is EC$ 11,091.02
• Target is a doubling in per capita
incomes by 2027
• The target for overall balance is 3
per cent of GDP
9
Policy Targets
• Target of current
revenue to GDP is 28 to
32 per cent of GDP
• Target for current
expenditure to GDP is
between 22 to 26 per
cent of GDP
10
Resolution Strategy
• The Economic Union and Single Financial
and Economic Space
• The ECCB Eight Point Stabilization and
Growth Programme
• Carefully calibrated three-pronged growth
strategy:
11
Resolution Strategy
• Stimulus package to alleviate somewhat the
decline in domestic income.
• Tourism centered industrial policy.
• Seven modernising sectors
• Establishment of Objectives for growth rate,
unemployment rate, poverty levels, human
development indices
12
High Frequency Indicators
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Set 1 National Accounts
Set 2 Production and Turnover
Set 3 Price Indicators
Set 4 Labour Market Indicators
Set 5 External Sector Indicators
Set 6 Financial Sector Indicators
Set 7 General Government Sector Indicators
Set 8 Household Sector Indicators
Set 9 Non-Financial Corporations Sector Indicators
Set 10 Financial Market Indicators
Set 11 Real Estate Market Indicators
Set 12 Economic Sentiment
13
Core Set of Indicators Needed
• A core set of indicators are needed in order to
adequately address the challenges relating to
financial stability, consolidation and development;
debt management; fiscal reform; and growth and
competitiveness,
• The national economic strategy will need to outline
performance measures that will guide the provision
of certain statistical data sets to promote evidence
based decision making.
14
Core Set of Indicators Needed
• An examination of a countries policies will highlight
which set of core indicators are needed based on
policy makers needs.
• Example in the area of growth and competiveness
countries may need to supply policy makers with
quarterly GDP; quarterly BOP and other short-term
indicators in a timely manner in order to inform
decision making.
15
National Strategy For Development
of Statistics
• NSDS should form part of an overall national
economic strategy. The objectives of NSDS would:
– Strengthen the institutional framework of NSS and the
coordinating role of the CSO
– Improve the quality and quantity of statistics in priority
areas
– Improve the accessibility and dissemination of statistical
information
– Mainstream statistics within the emerging framework for
monitoring and evaluation of a country’s development
activities and their contribution to national targets
16
National Strategy For Development
of Statistics
• A NSDS enables developing countries to build a
reliable statistical system
• that produces the data necessary to design,
implement, and monitor national development
policies and programmes.
• They also help countries meet their regional and
international commitments with respect to statistics
(Millennium Development Goals, regional integration
processes, etc.)
17
National Strategy For Development
of Statistics
• In other words, a NSDS is a platform that allows
statistical activities, capacity development, and
infrastructure improvements to be planned.
• This platform also enables stakeholders in
the NSS (sectoral ministries, central bank,
national statistical office, etc.) as well as
technical and financial partners to co-ordinate
their efforts through appropriate mechanisms.
18
Linking of SNA Strategy to National
Strategy
• National Accounts are key indicators for describing
the national economy and interactions with the
international economy
• The statement of strategy on the implementation of
2008 SNA high level goals are:
–
–
–
–
–
Improving the scope, quality and timeliness of NA statistics
Minimizing response burden to data suppliers
Increasing the use of administrative data
Achieving cost effectiveness using best practices
Raising public awareness and use of NA and economic
statistics
19
Linking of SNA Strategy to National
Strategy
• Specific goals are:
– To compile national accounts according to the SNA
implementation, comprising the minimum required data
set
– To develop a national central data hub for short term
economic statistics to facilitate the early detection of
changes in economic activity as reflected by the national
accounts
The SNA strategy should be linked to the National Strategy to
ensure that the provision of any data aligns with the
countries overall statistical needs to measure the
effectiveness of their policies.
20
Conclusion
• Statistical agenda and priorities should be policy relevant and
remain policy relevant over time.
• Engagement of different stakeholders at the national and
regional policy community as well as development partners is
key in fostering regular data collection programmes.
• Such collaboration will ensure timely and coherent statistics
that provide relevant information to policy makers and the
public at large.
21
THE END
Thank you for your attention
22