National Accounts Practices in the Caribbean Countries as of 2011 An update of the assessment carried out in the ICP context, based on the UNSD questionnaire. January 2013, Hernán Epstein - ECLAC - This Presentation… This is a presentation that was done by Jan Redeby in September 2011 in Port of Spain. He is a consultant in the ICP and worked with the countries to determine whether the countries met the requirements in terms of National Accounts. We have also received 7 questionnaires from the region and have updated the information accordingly. These questionnaires still need to be validated CARICOM Member & Associate States Anguilla * Antigua and Barbuda The Bahamas Barbados Belize Bermuda * British Virgin Islands Cayman Islands Dominica Grenada * First Hand Information Second Hand Information No Information Guyana Jamaica * Haiti Montserrat * Saint Lucia St. Kitts & Nevis * St.Vincent & the Grenadines * Suriname Trinidad & Tobago Turks & Caicos Islands The presentation is based on info from 18 countries, from 2011 * Countries that have submitted their Questionnaires, by early this week Topics GDP by activity Expenditure on GDP Current and Constant Prices Supply and use tables Quarterly GDP-estimates Conclusion GDP by Activity 1 GDP by activity is compiled in all countries at current and constant prices GDP is decided from the production side with one exception – Bahamas Mostly of better quality compared to the expenditure side – source data more readily available 16 countries use ISIC, rev 3.1 for classification of industries or compatible national classification, while 2 use ISIC, rev 4. Of the 7 countries that responded to the Questionnaire, 6 reported using the 3.1 and one the 3. GDP by Activity 2 Sources Department of Agriculture / Forestry / Fisheries Enterprise (business) surveys – often handled by national accounts section Business data (such as annual reports), often for electricity, water, telecommunications, others Commodity flow technique – construction Central bank / regulatory authorities – financial intermediation and insurance Government accounts Benchmarks projected with indicators – e.g., owner occupied dwellings Lack of price data for deflation GDP by Activity 3 Underestimation of GDP Many countries indicate that the informal sector is not well estimated, if at all NPISH often underestimated Illegal activities / products not included Dwelling services may be underestimated Consumption of fixed capital not estimated for government Expenditure on GDP 1 17 countries compile expenditure on GDP at current prices Of the 7 countries that responded to the Questionnaire, all report compiling it at current prices at some level. 3 countries also compile constant prices Of the 7 countries that responded to the Questionnaire, none compiles it at constant prices, but all except one plan to. 9 countries estimate private consumption as a residual 8 countries (at least) do not estimate changes in inventories residual includes CI Of the 7 countries that responded to the Questionnaire, 3 estimate changes in inventories, and 3 plan to. Expenditure on GDP 2 Sources Private consumption (where estimated): Benchmark (HBS) and commodity flows Government consumption: Government accounts Gross fixed capital formation: Commodity flows Changes in inventories (where estimated): Enterprise surveys and business data Exports and imports of goods: Customs data; ASYCUDA (or similar) and EUROTRACE Exports and imports of services: Balance of payments Constant prices Base year Base year 2001 Base year 2006 Base year 2003 Base year 2000 Earlier base year 1 country 13 countries 1 country 1 country 2 countries Constraints Detailed and adequate price indices are often scarce Supply and use table 8 countries have compiled SUT Bahamas 2002, 2005, 2007 Barbados 2000 Bermuda 2004, 2008 British Virgin Islands 1999 Guyana 2006 Jamaica 2000 St Vincent and the Grenadines 2000 Of the 7 countries that responded to the Questionnaire, 3 reported compiling annual SUT and one plans to. Quarterly GDP-estimates Jamaica GDP by activity at current and constant prices Belize GDP by activity at constant prices Bermuda Expenditure on GDP at current prices ECCU Compound quarterly indicator – Close to GDP by activity Of the 7 Questionnaires, 2 countries compile Quarterly GDP-estimates of some sort, while one plans to. Final Remarks We do not have very up to date information on the countries’ current National Accounts situation Hard to obtain an accurate diagnostics It is important that we receive the Questionnaire from the countries and that this data is validated. Thank you!