NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS
RWILIZA Jean Chrysostome
National Bank of Rwanda
July 23, 2016
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Outline
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Introduction
Compilation methodologies
Main data sources
Data gaps
Improvement
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Introduction
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Introduction
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GDP by economic activity, i.e. GDP(P), are
compiled on a quarterly and annually at both
current & constant 2006 prices basis;
The estimates of GDP are compiled in
accordance with the principles and concepts of
the SNA93;
Quarterly GDP estimates are published via NISR
website since October 2011;
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First estimate 3 months while revised 9 months
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Annual estimates are obtained by summing up
the relevant quarterly estimates.
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Methodology
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Production approach
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The current methodology depends on
establishing a “benchmark” every five years.
The quarterly GDP(P) estimates are based on
extrapolating 2006 benchmarks using two
types of indicators:
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value indices (for current price estimates) and
quantity indices (for constant price estimates).
Benchmark estimates are available for every
kind of activity of Total output, IC, and GVA.
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Production approach (cont)
Value indices:
There are 2 methods of producing value indices:
 First, when figures for the turnover are available directly,
these can be converted into a value index.
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These turnover data are available for the formal sector
and equivalent figures for producers of government
services.
Second, where turnover figures are not available directly, a
value index can be obtained by multiplying a quantity index
by an appropriate price index.
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This is what we do for Agriculture and the rest of informal
sector.
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Production approach (cont)
Quantity indices:
There are several methods of deriving a quantity index:
 If a value index exists, it can be divided by an
appropriate price index.
 If quantity data are available, they can be converted
directly into an index number.
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If neither values nor reliable quantities are
available, proxy indicators of quantity may have
to be used. In some cases the quantity indices are
based on the population growth rate.
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Production approach (cont)
Annual estimates:
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Annual estimates are derived by summing the
quarterly estimates.
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The main sources for the indicators are:
banking data, BOP, Crop assessments,
Government
finance
data,
Population
projections, Trade data (Import export), Price
data (CPI & PPI)and tax data (VAT).
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GDP at market prices
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Once the estimates of GVA by activity have been
made, two adjustments are required in order to
convert total GVA at basic prices into GDP at
market prices, both current and constant.
The first is for Financial Intermediation Services
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Indirectly Measured :FISIM (formerly known as
imputed bank service charges)
The second is taxes (less subsidies) on products.
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Expenditure approach
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GDP by expenditure share, i.e. GDP(E) is NOT
independently compiled. Therefore, hard to
verify GDP(P).
The difference between the total GDP(P) and the
sum of other items of expenditure (Government
final consumption expenditure, GFCF, and netexport) is reported as private consumption.
Separate estimates for household final
consumption expenditure, consumption of nonprofit institutions serving households, and
changes in inventories are not compiled.
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Mode of production
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Formal sector has been defined as businesses registered
for VAT excluding agriculture (agro-industries such as
tea and coffee processing are included)
For largest enterprises, banks and insurance companies,
these data are supplemented by the detailed annual (for
banks, quarterly) financial accounts.
Informal activity covers marketed production by all
other private producers not registered for VAT
Apart from crop production (use of “crop assessment
data”)estimates are produced by extrapolating the
benchmark using proxy indicator.
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Mode of production (cont)
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Non-monetary production covers goods (mostly
crops) and housing services that are consumed by the
producer (auto-consumption). These proportions are
assumed to be constant between benchmarks.
The Government and NGO mode of production is
assumed to be activity carried out in three branches
of activity, namely public administration, education
and health.
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Main data & sources at the rebasing period
Data
Sources
EICV2
NISR
Trade data: Imports CIF, import duty and VAT,
Export FOB
RRA (Customs)
BOP: detailed services (Goods for
comparison)
BNR
Existing gross output estimates by mode of
production
NISR National
Accounts
VAT: Monthly turnover
RRA
GFS: Government expenditure details
MINECOFIN
Enterprise survey data
NISR
Agriculture survey (2008) provisional results
NISR
Crop assessments (2006-2008)
MINAGRI
Agriculture
prices for 2006
by market
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National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda
MINAGRI
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Data sources for regular estimates
Mode of production (cont)
DATA FOR:
Type
SOURCES
Agriculture
Crop production
MINAGRI(mostly
 Non-monetary
production covers goods
crops
NAEB
crops) andExport
housing
services that are consumed
by the
Others
RAB etc
producer (auto-consumption).
These proportions
are
Formal
sector toVAT
income tax
turnoverbenchmarks.
RRA
assumed
be &constant
between
Profit & loss accounts of firms BNR & NISR
 The Government and NGO mode of production is
Quantity & turnover of firms
NISR (PPI survey)
assumed to be activity carried out in RDB,
threeRTDA,
branches
RURA
of service
activity,Government
namely public
administration,
education
Public
expenditure
MINECOFIN
BOPand health.
Prices
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BNR
Trade data
RRA
Farm gate prices
CPI &PPI
MIS-MINAGRI
NISR
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Gaps
The main gaps include:
 Better estimates of agricultural production
 through joint collaboration between NISR and
MINAGRI
 this process has started
 Quarrying
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Quarterly estimates of road constr.
Quarterly BOP (especially services)
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Quarterly insurance data
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Timely school enrolment data
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Improvement
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The NISR is committed to improving the GDP
estimates and to expanding the range of NAS
aggregates:
Current improvement:
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Replacing use of population indicators with more
representative indicators;  from 19% to 7.4%
Increasing use of existing NISR survey data (e.g.
Pop. Census 2002, EICV2, NAS 2008).
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Plans for Improvement (2012 to 2014)
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Increasing access to, and/or use of, existing administrative source
data (e.g. Income tax, RAB, RURA, RTDA, Ministries);
Finalizing results of EICV3 ;
Conducting benchmark agriculture, RGPHC, IBES (enterprise and
NGO surveys);
Developing detailed benchmarks based on Input-Output Tables
(IOT) and Supply/Use Tables (SUT);
Rebase of GDP to 2011 base year;
Expanding and improving annual and sub-annual data collections
(e.g. for Agriculture, PPI); and
Redeveloping the NAS compilation methodology and worksheets
(Crop WIP, construction model etc)
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Many thanks
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