Republic of Zambia
Central Statistical Office
Dr. Maxwell Musongole and Shebo Nalishebo
Seminar on Developing a Programme for the Implementation of the 2008 SNA & Supporting Statistics in Southern Africa
Pretoria, 17-19 October 2012
Outline
 Overview of the main policy issues & their
relationship with the scope and detail of the national
accounts framework;
 Overview of current national accounts compilation
practices;
 New requirements by economic activity and
institutional sector; and
 Statistical and institutional actions to remedy
shortcomings
Overview of policy issues
 Zambia has undergone 3 ‘policy periods’:
 Free market policies (1964-1972)
 State control (1973-1991)
 Economic liberalisation
Overview of policy issues
 Zambian government’s policy objectives are set out in:
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Vision 2030
Sixth National Development Plan (2011-2015)
Medium term expenditure framework
Annual budget speech
 Macroeconomic objectives (2011-2015):
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Attain real GDP growth of at least 7 percent per annum; [averaged 6.5% last 5 years]
Reduce inflation to 5 percent by 2015; [currently above 6 %]
Raise domestic revenues to at least 20.0 percent of GDP; [2013 budget target >25%]
Reduce domestic borrowing to 1.0 percent of GDP by 2015;
Maintain and sustain a sustainable current account position;
Create at least 1 million new jobs by 2015; [200,000 new jobs per year]
Reduce lending rates;
Overview of policy issues
 Fiscal policy:
 budget forecasts determined on the basis of value of GDP
 Revenue, expenditure & grants targets, deficits, domestic
debts, determined as a percentage of GDP
 Per capita GDP/GNI: used as a human development
indicator
 Have since moved from low income to middle income
country
 Other policies informed by national accounts:
agriculture, manufacturing, ICT
Shifts in economic structure
1964-1972
1973-1991
1991-2000
2001-2011
Agriculture, hunting,
forestry, fishing (ISIC AB)
Mining, Utilities (ISIC
C+E)
13.3
16.0
19.7
20.2
32.9
19.1
12.3
6.4
Manufacturing (ISIC D)
13.2
23.5
17.7
9.9
Construction (ISIC F)
Wholesale, retail trade,
restaurants and hotels
(ISIC G-H)
Transport, storage and
communication (ISIC I)
Other Activities (ISIC JP)
7.9
4.6
3.8
12.9
12.3
13.9
16.3
19.3
4.3
4.9
5.2
4.7
16.0
18.1
24.9
26.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Total Value Added
Exhaustive measure of economic activity
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The national accounts are not exhaustive to meet certain policy needs
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Data collection was easier during the period of state control
Only GDP by industry & expenditure are compiled, no GDP by income approach
Informal activities not adequately covered for the non-agriculture sector
Own-account production & housing not adequately covered
Local government statistics inadequate – general government statistics not
properly consolidated
Not sensitive to new economic activities (based on 1994 base year that may not
depict current economic activities)
GNI up to saving compiled; net lending/borrowing not compiled
No satellite accounts compiled; so targeted programmes/policies on tourism, for
example, not informed by national accounts statistics
Domestic & external economic & financial vulnerabilities
 External:
 Copper prices fluctuations
 Oil prices fluctuations
 Instability in international food prices
 Slow down in world economic growth
 Exchange rate instability
 Eurobond
Domestic & external economic & financial vulnerabilities
 Internal:
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Drought
Food price rise (food shortage): food inflation
General inflation (exchange rate volatility)
Govt excessive borrowing; govt debt
Eurobond (pressure on debt servicing)
Inadequate data to base decisions on
Inadequate infrastructure – ICTs, hospitals, schools, etc.
Power deficits
Interest rates (bank rates still high)
Unemployment [overall: 7.9%; unemployment (20-24 yrs): 15.3% (37.8 %
in urban areas]
Availability of short term statistics
 Daily: Exchange rates
 Fortnightly: monetary & financial statistics
 Monthly: CPI; employment statistics from
administrative sources (Zambia Revenue
Authority); volume indicators for mining,
construction, accommodation, etc.
 Quarterly: Index of Industrial Production,
Balance of Payments, formal sector employment
Global production issues
 Issues related to goods for processing,
merchanting & intellectual property products
not addressed in the current framework
Current national accounts compilation practices
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National accounts are compiled by the Central Statistical Office, a department under the Ministry of Finance
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GDP is compiled annually by the production & expenditure approaches
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Official GDP is compiled using the production approach
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GDP produced at both current and constant prices; only current prices for expenditure approach
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Statistical discrepancy reported between the two approaches
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Current base year: 1994
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Three releases of GDP for a particular year: preliminary, revised and final estimates
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Industrial classification followed is ISIC rev. 2;
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Changeover to ISIC rev. 4 in national accounts compilation planned for 2013; already implemented in the 2011
register of establishments
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CPC not used;
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To be introduced in 2013 as it has been incorporated in the 2012 Economic Census
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COICOP for household final expenditure, COFOG for government final expenditure used
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Household final consumption previously compiled as a residual; now based on data from the household
budget module of the Living Conditions Monitoring Survey
Current national accounts compilation practices
 NPISH not compiled separately
 Gross Capital Formation compiled but reported at
aggregate level;
 Balance of goods and services compiled based on BoP data
 Supply & use tables & institutional sectors not compiled
 Institutional environment:
 Legal framework: Census & Statistics Act, Bank of Zambia Act
 Economic Statistics committee; BoP committee;
 MoUs between CSO & Revenue Authority, CSO & Pensions
Authority, ZICTA
Current national accounts compilation practices
 Statistical production process:
 Use GDDS framework
 Developed new register of establishments (2011)
 Use a combination of administrative & survey data
 Dissemination of statistics done every last
Thursday of the month
New requirements
 Changeover to 2008 SNA:
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Within the framework of the Economic Census project
Review of economic statistics (price & volume indicators used) – IMF
missions
Business register developed (both enterprise & establishment levels)
Training in benchmarking & input-output analysis conducted for 3
members of staff in the Netherlands
FISIM & its allocation – work currently going on
Industry classification: ISIC rev. 4 implemented in population census,
economic census, labour force survey
Product classification: CPC introduced in 2011/12 economic census
Prices: CPI rebased to 2009; plans to compile PPI (included in 2013
budget; will require technical assistance)
New requirements: Economic Census
 Two phases: listing phase and enumeration phase
 Listing phase implemented 4th quarter 2011; comprehensive
establishment register developed, and based on ISIC rev. 4
classification
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Used as sampling frame for enumeration phase
 Enumeration phase completed mid-October 2012
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Industry-specific questionnaires designed to be 2008 SNA compliant
 Ancillary activities with separate accounts accounted for separately as
establishments; treatment of head office; etc.
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Expected outputs:
 Short term: 2010 benchmark & base year; provincial GDP;
 Medium term: quarterly GDP, SUT/IOT, institutional sector accounts
Institutional actions
 Hinges on the implementation of NSS within the
NSDS framework
 Revision of the Census & Statistics Act (currently
1964)
 Technical assistance to review data collected
from Economic Census: IMF Afritac South
Mission (November 2012); Micromacro
(December 2012)
Thank You!