Agenda item 6d
ՀՀ ԱԶԳԱՅԻՆ ՎԻՃԱԿԱԳՐԱԿԱՆ ԾԱՌԱՅՈՒԹՅՈՒՆ
NATIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICE OF RA
Exhaustiveness of National Accounts,
NOE and informal sector of Armenia
Workshop on Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Kiev, 29 November - 2 December 2011
Structure of presentation
Brief overview of National Accounts in Armenia
Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE in Armenia’s GDP
Measuring the contribution of the informal sector (IS) to the total
economy, Informal Sector Survey, ADB (RETA 6430)
•
Presentation of IS GVA estimates/shares by industry.
•
Which activities noted high contribution of informal sector (in proportion
to total) GVA?
•
The characteristics of these industries that could explain why IS
contribution is high.
•
Description of the IS labor productivities in each industry. Comparison
with the labor productivity in the formal sector.
•
Characteristics of informal sector enterprises.
Implementation of Eurostat Tabular approach to Exhaustiveness
of GDP
2
BRIEF OVERVIEW OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN ARMENIA
National accounts of Armenia are compiled in accordance
with the fundamental concepts, categories, accounts’
conception of SNA 1993. Simultaneously, the implementation
of the ESA 95 continues.
Since 1990 the ANNUAL accounts are available
Since 1992 the QUARTERLY accounts are available
GDP is compiled by three methods:
-production (according to NACE - Rev.1.1), annual and quarterly
(current and constant prices, sseasonally adjusted)
-expenditure, annual and quarterly (current and constant prices,
seasonally adjusted)
-income (only for annual data, current prices)
3
Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE
in Armenia’s GDP
According to the conceptual framework of Measuring
the Non-Observed Economy – Handbook, ILO, IMF, CIS
ISC, 2002
GDP includes an estimate of Non-observed economy
(NOE) since 1994.
NOE in Armenia’s GDP includes:
- underground production,
- deficiencies in the basic data collection system
- informal sector production and
- production of households for own final use.
Illegal production is out of GDP estimate.
4
Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE
in Armenia’s GDP
Estimations are based on following data sources:
-employment data (formal employment reported by companies)
-labour force survey (total employment received from
households)
-ILCS
-special one-off sample surveys (construction, education,
healthcare, trade, NPISH)
-other indirect methods
Special round of surveys focused on informal activities was held
during1997-1998:
-small size enterprises
- labor force survey
- survey of self-employed
5
Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE
in Armenia’s GDP by industries,%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
GDP
27,3
27,4
26,3
25,0
24,8
Agriculture
24,1
24,7
22,5
22,3
22,1
D
Manufacturing
42,7
41,8
38,5
36,0
49,7
E
Electricity
0,0
0,0
0,0
5,2
7,4
F
Construction
36,3
38,0
41,4
38,4
36,3
G
Trade
55,3
53,5
49,4
49,2
45,8
H
Hotels and restaurants
5,5
17,0
8,0
6,4
21,1
I
Transport
11,2
9,1
8,0
10,0
13,8
K
Real estate, renting
20,5
16,9
17,2
13,9
11,5
M
Education
6,5
7,0
7,4
7,0
7,0
N
Health
56,0
50,9
49,9
31,6
44,7
O
Other services
43,0
34,9
31,4
25,9
26,1
A,B
6
Exhaustiveness of NA, NOE
in Armenia’s GDP by industries,%
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Electricity
Construction
Trade
Hotels and restaurants
Transport
Real estate, renting
Education
Health
Other services
2009
7
MEASURING THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE
INFORMAL SECTOR (IS) TO THE TOTAL ECONOMY
Informal Sector Survey, ADB (RETA 6430)-2009
IS According to the Delhi Group
The Delhi Group (Expert Group on IS set up by UNSD)
proposed the following criteria to identify the IS:
•
•
•
•
Legal organization (unincorporated enterprises)
No complete set of accounts
With at least some market output
Employment size (less then 5)
For statistical and SNA purposes, the IS is defined in terms of
enterprise (producing unit). Thus, measuring its contribution
to GDP is made more explicit. It is defined as part of
household unincorporated enterprises and a subsector of the
national accounts.
8
MEASURING THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE
INFORMAL SECTOR (IS) TO THE TOTAL ECONOMY
Informal Sector Survey, ADB (RETA 6430)-2009
NSS RA applied mixed survey approach in 2009 through the ADB
Regional Technical Assistance (RETA) 6430: Measuring the
Informal Sector. It had two phases:
1. Expanded Labor and Employment module of the Integrated
Living Conditions Survey (ILCS), with additional questions
- identifying household unincorporated enterprises with at
least some market production (HUEMs),
- distinguishing informal employment from formal employment,
- the extent of social protection mechanisms.
2. the Informal Sector Survey, covered 624 PSUs. The sampling
frame constituted the list of HUEMs identified in phase 1. A total of
548 HUEMs were included in the ISS.
9
MEASURING THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE
INFORMAL SECTOR (IS) TO THE TOTAL ECONOMY
Informal Sector Survey, ADB (RETA 6430)-2009
Structure of ISS Questionnaire in Armenia
Section A
Organization of Business
Section B
Employment and Compensation
Section C
Production and Sale
Section D
Expenditures on Raw Materials and Stock
Section E
Capital Expenditures
Section F
Credit Information
Section G
Other Information
10
MEASURING THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE
INFORMAL SECTOR (IS) TO THE TOTAL ECONOMY
Informal Sector Survey, ADB (RETA 6430)-2009
ISS Questionnaire
Description
Section B, Employment – gathers information on the incomes paid from
and Compensation
the production and other components of GVA
under the income approach
Section C, Production, – information include sales, revenues,
Inventory and Sale
inventories and own consumption of the
enterprise from production, either in agriculture
or non-agriculture enterprises.
Section D,
– data gathered are on expenditures on inputs to
Expenditures on Raw
production incurred by the enterprise, either in
Materials and Stock
agriculture or non-agriculture enterprises.
Section E, Capital
– consists of items on the types and costs of
Expenditures
fixed capital purchases / sold by the enterprise.
Change in inventories
Activity fluctuations
during last 12 months
NA components
Income approach –
compensation and
operating surplus
Production
approach – output
Production
approach –
intermediate input
other variables –
gross fixed capital
formation
- gathers estimates of changes in inventories of
Other variables output
Inventories
- records the sales trend of the business which
Annualization of
can be utilized to approximate the annual level of GVA estimates
production and verify degree of activities
11
Informal sector GVA by industries
Share in total GVA of
industry, %
Share in informal
sector total GVA
TOTAL GVA
11.2
100.0
A,B
C
D
E
F
Agriculture, hunting and forestry, fishing
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas and water supply
Construction
22.4
0.0
5.0
0.0
15.4
36.2
0.0
4.3
0.0
26.6
G
H
Wholesale and retail trade, repairs, etc.
Hotels and restaurants
14.8
0.0
18.6
0.0
I
J
Transport, storage, and communications
Financial intermediation
3.7
0.0
2.9
0.0
K
8.7
4.2
L
M
N
Real estate, renting, and business activities
Public administration and defense, social
security
Education
Health and social work
0.0
7.0
4.9
0.0
2.5
1.8
O
Other community, social and personal services
16.6
3.0
12
Informal sector GVA by industries
Trade:
- average share in GDP 2002-2008 – about 11.0%,
2009 – 12.7%, 2010 - 13.0%
- influenced by large imports of goods, which comprised about 3839% in GDP of recent years
- many informal small trade points (boutiques) mainly in rural
areas
Other community, social and personal services:
- includes Recreational, cultural, sport, sewage and refuse
disposal and other personal services,
- share in GDP is small – 1.8% in 2009 and 2010
- informal production mainly in personal services like
hairdressing
13
Informal Sector GVA by urbanity in Armenia
RURAL
39.89%
URBAN
60.11%
14
Agriculture and non-agriculture GVA in the
Formal and Informal sectors
90.00
84.08
81.80
80.00
63.79
70.00
60.00
50.00
36.21
40.00
30.00
20.00
18.20
15.92
10.00
0.00
in %
Total
Formal
Agriculture
Informal
Non-agriculture *
15
Labor productivity
Agriculture, hunting
and forestry, fishing
3,646
304
Construction
8,613
2,902
991
Education
Health and social
work
11,039
1,758
Manufacturing
19,718
2,169
Other service
activities
Real estate, renting
and business…
Transport and
communication
Wholesale and retail
trade; repair
4,039
1,081
991
15,688
1,332
20,229
4,065
4,269
3,199
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Thousand drams
Formal labor productivity
Informal labor Productivity
16
Type of premises where business activities are
conducted
Location
Proportion (%)
Farm or individual agriculture / subsidiary plot
84.25
Home or workplace of the client
4.34
Transport vehicle
2.60
At home with no special work space
2.25
Market, bazaar stall, trade fair
1.94
At home with work space inside / attached to the home
1.20
Street, pavement or highway with fixed post
1.11
No fixed location (e.g., mobile, door-to-door, street w/o fixed post
0.75
Construction site
0.59
Business premise with fixed location independent from home
0.38
Employer's home
0.21
Others
0.38
17
Average Employment of IS Enterprises by
Industry
Workers
Paid
Workers
Agriculture, hunting and forestry, fishing
2.3
1.1
Manufacturing
1.9
1.0
Construction
1.2
1.1
Wholesale and Retail Trade
1.3
1.1
Transport and Communication
1.3
1.0
Real Estate, Renting
1.0
1.0
Education
1.0
1.0
Health and Social Work
1.0
1.0
Other Service Activities
1.25
1.1
Industry
Max of workers - 6, paid workers - 5: in Agriculture.
18
Reason for choosing the business activity
Reason
%
Family tradition
41.8
More stable returns than other products / services
12.2
It is the profession that I know
7.6
It gives better income / higher profits than other products or
services
5.9
Others
32.5
19
Source of Financing of IS enterprises
Source
Proportion (%)
Private bank
77.7
Private money lender / pawnshop
12.8
Relative / neighbor / friends
11.2
1.3
Cooperative
Employer / landlord
Others
0.0
16.1
Reason for not availing of any loan to finance business activity
- High interest rate for loans – 52.1%,
- Burdensome requirements – 30.8%,
- Other source of income – 16.7%.
20
Implementation of Eurostat Tabular approach
to Exhaustiveness of GDP
Current TWINNING project from January 2011 to
January 2013 with Statistics of Denmark as the core
partner includes also project component for
Exhaustiveness of GDP with aim to introduce Eurostat
Tabular approach to Exhaustiveness into practice.
Table 1A is already completed for all industries and 7
types of non-exhaustiveness and draft Table 2A is
completed for one industry.
21
ՀՀ ԱԶԳԱՅԻՆ ՎԻՃԱԿԱԳՐԱԿԱՆ ԾԱՌԱՅՈՒԹՅՈՒՆ
NATIONAL STATISTICAL SERVICE OF RA
THANK YOU!
Workshop on Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Kiev, 29 November - 2 December 2011