unido.org/statistics
International Seminar of Early Warning and
Business Cycle Indicators
Moscow, 17-19 November 2010
Strategic Indicators for Industrial Statistics
Shyam Upadhyaya
Chief Statistician, UNIDO
1
unido.org/statistics
Data collected by UNIDO
From national sources
From international sources
Annual industrial survey data
(for mining, manufacturing and utility sectors)
National accounts and international trade data
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Number of establishments/enterprises
Number of persons engaged/employees
Share of female employees (developing countries)
Wages and salaries
Gross output
Value added
Gross fixed capital formation (manufacturing
only)
Annual indices of industrial production
(manufacturing only)
• GDP, MVA at current and constant prices
• Value added of M&U sectors
• Population (UNPD)
• Export and import of manufactured goods
(Comtrade)
Quarterly indices of industrial production
2
unido.org/statistics
Overview of output indicators compiled
by UNIDO Statistics
Computation
method
Manufacturing value
added
Manufacturing
sector specific value
added
Mining and
quarrying value
added
Mining and
quarrying sector
value added
Industrial demand
supply balance
Valuation
Frequency
Time lag
Latest year estimation
method
Constant prices
( US$ 2000)
Annual
None
Nowcasting model
based on
Current US$
Annual
2 years
Not done
Survey
Current prices
Annual
(national currency)
3 years
IIP based estimation
National accounts
Constant prices
( US$ 2000)
Annual
2 years
Not done
Survey
Current prices
Annual
(national currency)
3 years
Not done
Survey estimates of
output
Current prices
2 years
IIP based estimation
National accounts
Annual
3
unido.org/statistics
Monitoring growth trends by annual and quarterly indices
(some results)
World MVA annual growth rates in per cent by country groups
Quarterly growth trend of world MVA by country groups
12.5
15.0
10.0
7.5
World
Developing
10.0
5.0
Industrialized
5.0
2.5
0.0
0.0
-2.5
-5.0
-7.5
World
Industrialized
Developing
-10.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-5.0
-10.0
Qt I
Qt II Qt III Qt IV Qt I
2008
Qt II Qt III Qt IV Qt I
2009
Qt II
2010
Source: UNIDO database
4
unido.org/statistics
Major problems related to data
reporting by NSOs
• Infrequent and irregular surveys
• Incomplete coverage of economic activities
• Deviation from international standards; comparability problems
• Lack of metadata
• Lack of timely data on short-term indicators such as production
and producer’s price indices
Currently recommended set of data items in IRIS comprise
a full set of data for measuring level, structure and growth
For a regular monitoring of business tendency it would be
necessary to define a minimum set of data items
5
unido.org/statistics
Minimum set of industrial data
Variables
Key indicators
Classification
Frequency
What does it measure
Gross domestic product
By ISIC
sections
Annually
Level and growth
Gross output
Value added
ISIC 2-digit
Annually
Structure
Indices of industrial
production
ISIC 2-digit
Quarterly
Short-term growth
Price
Indices of producer’s
prices
ISIC 2-digit
Quarterly
Short-term growth
Input
Material input
Energy input
Cost of services
Annually
Structure
Efficiency
Production
Employment and
remuneration
External trade
Number of employees
Wages and salaries paid
to employees
Export
Import
ISIC 2-digit
ISIC 2-digit
SITC 4- digit
Annually
Annually
Structure
Productivity
Efficiency
Structure
Competitiveness
6
unido.org/statistics
Estimation for recent years
• Data from national sources are available with some time lag for
objective reasons
• Users demand more recent data
• International data producing agencies could supply estimated
(extrapolated ) data especially for output series
However;
Estimation requires IIP and PPI data, which are not readily
available for many countries
There is no consensus whether an international agency can
disseminate its estimates for member states.
7
unido.org/statistics
Collective response to a collective challenge
A core set of indicators and division of labour based on existing UN
Statistics Commission mandate
International aggregation of data
By development stage
Industrialized, newly industrialized, developing countries and LDCs
By regional groups
EU, ASEAN, Sub-Sahara, Latin America and Caribbean etc
Aggregation of IIP and PPI requires weights
Recommended dates of data release
unido.org/statistics
Some UNIDO publications for
reference
UNIDO data quality – A quality assurance framework for UNIDO
statistical activities
Towards a new industrial and business statistics programme for
developing countries and countries with economies in transition
Industrial Statistics: Guidelines and Methodology
World Statistics on Mining and Utilities
International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics
9
unido.org/statistics
Thank you for your
attention!
Stat-Info services
stat@unido.org
10