Global Assessment on Tendency
Surveys
United Nations Statistics Division
Paul Hanna
17-19 November 2011
Moscow, Russia
Background
•
•
•
Assessment collected information on
tendency surveys conducted by
organizations around the world
The survey was sent to 294 organizations in
212 countries
67 responses received
• From organizations that completed at
least 25 questions
• 36 NSOs
• 33 Eurostat organizations (13 NSOs)
• Response rate: 23%
Background
41
4
11
4
3
4
Overview
•
5 major economic sectors were surveyed w/
detailed questions
0
10
20
30
40
50
Industry
54
Construction
43
Consumer
32
Services
43
Retail
Agriculture
Others
60
41
9
21
Overview
•
Most surveys conducted by NSOs
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Industry
Construction
Consumer
Services
Retail
NSO
Non-NSO
Overview
•
5 sections of the questionnaire
I.
Institutional environment and
management
Registers and frames
Surveys
Data integration
Dissemination
II.
III.
IV.
V.
I.
Institutional Environment
and Management
•
30%-60% of surveys are compulsory
(consumer-retail)
•
Quality assurance frameworks are designed
primarily considering sample size
•
More than 80% of organizations collect their
own data
II. Registers and Frames
•
Frame sources: primarily statistical office
• 81%-90% Government sources
• Except consumer: 62%
•
All units in frame: about 2/3 of organizations
include all units
• Exceptions are size category
•
Frame updates: Most within 2 years, more
than 90% w/in 5 years
III. Surveys - sample
•
Sample selection
III. Surveys - sample
Sample Size
•
Sample size vs. Frame size
Industry
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
Construction
Consumer
Retail
100,000,000
10,000,000
1,000,000
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
10
Frame Size
Services
III. Surveys – response rate
•
Desired response rate: 80-90% on average
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Industry
Construction
Consumer
Services
Retail
<70%
70-80%
80-90%
90-100%
III. Surveys – response rate
•
•
•
Desired response rate: 80-90% on average
Follow ups are done by most organizations
(usually by phone or email)
Follow ups are effective
• Initial response <50%: 30% improvement
• Initial response >50%: 10% improvement
• Except for consumer: 11% and 4% resp.
III. Surveys – non-response
•
•
Unit and item non-response: adjustments
are made about 60% of the time (40-50% for
consumer)
• Usually by sample weight adj or
imputation
Many imputation techniques used
III. Surveys – non-response
40%
Imputation technique
35%
30%
25%
Industry
20%
Construction
15%
Consumer
10%
5%
0%
Services
Retail
III. Surveys – questions
•
Number of questions used
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
3
5
Other
Industry
•
Construction
Consumer
Services
Retail
Conversion of multiple choice into time series:
• 82%-96% use balance (P-N) for both 3&5
question surveys
15 Access to credit
14 Profit
13 Financial situation
12 Other
11 Business situation: future
10 Business situation: present
10
9 Production constraints
15
8 Capacity utilisation
20
7 Export order books: level
•
6 Selling price: future tendency
30
5 Employment: future
tendency
35
4 Production: tendency
40
3 Order books: level
25
2 Stock of finished goods: level
1 Production: future tendency
Industry: Number of source questions by basis and by use in confidence indicators
III. Surveys – source questions
& confidence indicators
Industry
Non-OECD Quarterly
Non-OECD Monthly
OECD Monthly
OECD Quarterly
5
0
13 Delay in payment by client
12 Profit
11 Access to credit
10 New orders (contracts)
9 Other
5
8 Technical capacity
10
7 Period of production secured
15
6 Financial situation
•
5 Output prices: future tendency
20
4 Business activity: present
25
3 Production constraints
2 Order books
1 Employment: future tendency
Construction: Number of source questions by basis and by use in confidence
indicators
30
III. Surveys
Construction
Non-OECD Quarterly
Non-OECD Monthly
OECD Quarterly
OECD Monthly
0
16 Other
15 Home improvements:
future
14 Capacity to save
13 Purchase a house: future
12 Saving: current intentions
11 Purchase a car: future
10 Major purchases
intentions: future
9 Saving intentions: future
8 Consumer prices: present
7 Major purchases of durable
consumer goods: current…
15
6 Consumer prices: future
5 General economic situation:
present
•
4 Unemployment: future
30
3 General economic situation:
future
20
2 Financial situation: future
1 Financial situation: present
35
Consumer: Number of source questions by basis and by use in confidence
indicators
III. Surveys
25
Consumer
Non-OECD Quarterly
Non-OECD Monthly
10
OECD Quarterly
5
OECD Monthly
0
12 Other
11 Profit
10 Financial situation
9 Access to credit
8 Business situation: future
7 Activity constraints
6 Output prices: future tendency
10
5 Employment: future tendency
•
4 Business situation: present
20
3 Employment: present
15
2 Demand: future tendency
1 Demand: present
Services: Number of source questions by basis and by use in confidence indicators
25
III. Surveys
Non-OECD Quarterly
Services
Non-OECD Monthly
OECD Quarterly
OECD Monthly
5
0
13 Competition in the sector
12 Access to credit
11 Profit
10 Other
9 Financial situation
8 Activity constraints
10
7 Selling price: tendency
6 Orders placed: future tendency
5 Selling price: future tendency
•
4 Employment: future tendency
20
3 Business situation: future
15
2 Business activity: present
1 Stocks
Retail: Number of source questions by basis and by use in confidence indicators
25
III. Surveys
Retail
Non-OECD Monthly
Non-OECD Quarterly
OECD Monthly
5
OECD Quarterly
0
IV. Data integration
•
•
100%
Most organizations simply take an
average/weighted average of the survey
results.
No adjustments are made before or after
averaging.
75%
50%
25%
0%
No Pre-Adj
No Post-Adj
Avg/weighted
V. Dissemination
•
•
•
Data is disseminated via:
• Paper publication
• Internet
Public releases are punctual
Response rates are released about 60% of
the time (45% for consumer)
Thank you