Post-Enumeration Survey – Requirements, Planning, Designing and Executing Carlos Creva Singano, National Statistic Office, Mozambique -Maputo Adis Ababa Workshop 14-18 September 2009 Mozambique Carlos C. Singano 1. Requisite qualities of PES • All Census questionnaires must be returned from the field in all EA to National Statistic Office, before the PES field enumeration. • The processing of the PES data must be separate from the general Census of Population and Housing processing Data; • The PES staff must go to the field without knowing the preliminary results of the respective EA; • To take the advantage of General Census enumerators and supervisors, they must be used as the field staff; Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 2 2. Costs /Other resources • The costs must be fixed based on the sample size, mainly at the first stage of sampling ( that is, nº of PSU to be selected) as well as the nº of Domains of Estimation; • The items to be included in the global cost are: -Transportation (Vehicles & its maintenance) - Field staff (PES enumerators; PES supervisors; PS Drivers); - Office Personnel (Matching clerks, matching Supervisors, Data Entry operators, Data Entry supervisors) - Printing and Reproduction (Questionnaires; Manuals, Maps, List of EA, etc) Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 3 3.Organization structure/Technical planning • Depend on the Political and administrative structure: • Mozambique: - NSO (Central Level- Sample Design, Budget and its distribution by province according to the sample size); - Provincial Level ( Only for execution of the central directives; controlling the field staff and financial matters); To control the Quality in the enumeration in the dual system; • In Mozambique, the Province is a domain of estimation. The sample must be representative of strata within each province; • In each 11 Provinces, the NSO has a Provincial NSO for Operations issues. Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 4 4.Procedure for Covarage analysis • There are Three Procedures for evaluation Census coverage in PES: Procedures A, B and C ( See Manual “ Evaluating Censures of Population and Housing”; • Mozambique used the procedure C, where the goal was to identify all current member of the sample HH as the 2007 PES date; in addition, any other resident as of the Reference Date of the General 2007 census of Population and Housing. • These persons are classified as either non-mover, out-mover and in-mover (that is, to identify immigrants and emigrants), with regard to their HH memberships status as of the 2007 Census Date. • In the 2007 Census records, only the Residents as the Date of the 2007 Census (the Non-movers and the Out-Movers), were matched. Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 5 4. Procedure for Covarage analysis (Cont.) • 2007 PES Status Mozambique - Non-mover; - Out-mover; - In-Mover; - Bor After Some Definition: Those who belonged to the HH as of the 2007 General Census and still as of the 2007 PES are the “Non-Movers”; Those who became members of a different HH during the interim period between the 2007 General Census and the 2007 PES are the “Movers”. There are two types of Movers: The “In-Movers” - those who arrived in the HH after 2007 Census; The “Out-Movers” - those who have left the HH since the 2007 CarlosCensus. C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 6 4. Procedure for Covarage analysis (Cont.) (Some Definitions) Persons who do not belong to the target population, that is, the population as of the 2007 Census date are considered “Out-of-scope”. This includes persons born after the 2007 census or persons who died before the 2007 Census,aliens and nonresidents. No match is attemted or Out-of Scope. Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 7 5.Organization structure/Technical planning (Sample Size and Domain of estimation) • Depending on the main objectives to be measure (the coverage error or, the net omission rate), the geographic domains of analysis and financial resources, the sample size is fixed; • In Mozambique, the Domains of estimation are: Provinces; National and national Urban and national Rural; • The 2007 PES of Moz follow a Stratified Cluster sampling of 340 PSU: Minimal of 30 PSU by Province and Maxim of 40 PSU in Maputo, Capital of Mozambique. All unit of analysis (HH, persons, etc) in each sample PSU were interviewed; • Sample designing for 95 percent of Confidence; Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 8 5.Sample Size and Domain of estimation (Cont.) Province/Domain of Estimation Niassa Cabo Delgado Nampula Zambézia Tete Manica Sofala Inhambane Gaza Maputo Província Maputo Cidade MOÇAMBIQUE Nº of PSU or EAs, 2007 PES Urbano Total 30 8 30 6 30 8 30 5 30 5 30 9 30 14 30 7 30 8 30 21 40 40 340 Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 131 Rural 22 24 22 25 25 21 16 23 22 9 0 209 9 5.Sample Size, Domain of estimation and estimates(Cont.) • Within each Province, the sample was stratified by urban and rural areas; • The Sample selection within each strata was selected independently with PPS. Measure of size was the nº of household within each strata; • Using the Dual system methodology (Procedure C), coverage and sampling errors were estimated. The national coverage error was 2.1 per cent. The Programme used were CENVAR (The IMPS Component) to main variables (eg, Age, sex, marital status, etc). • David Megill, The U.S.Census Bureau statistician, did help the Mozambican staff to do it; Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 10 5. Sample Size, Domain of Estimation and estimates(Cont.) • 95 percent confidence intervals for the Census omission rate were estimated; Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 11 6. Sampling Frame and Units of Analysis • Methodology of 2007 Moz PES: Two-way HHs and HHs Members; • The target universe included only the individual households in Mozambique; • Quarters groups were excluded of the scope; • The units of analysis in Mozambique 2007 PES were Households members Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 12 6.Sampling Frame and Units of Analysis • Distribution of the HH in Mozambique by Province and area of residence. Preliminary Results Total Province HHs. Niassa 258,090 Cabo Delgado 406,418 Nampula 951,523 Zambézia 918,808 Tete 427,126 Manica 276,251 Sofala 346,589 Inhambane 297,956 Gaza 251,185 Maputo Província 276,936 Maputo Cidade 222,285 Moçambique 4,633,167 Urban HHs. % 61,175 23.7% 72,744 17.9% 261,848 27.5% 155,391 16.9% 58,820 13.8% 69,057 25.0% 151,591 43.7% 87,248 29.3% 74,707 29.7% 177,962 64.3% 222,285 100.0% 1,392,828 30.1% Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo Rural HHs. 196,915 333,674 689,675 763,417 368,306 207,194 194,998 210,708 176,478 98,974 0 3,240,339 % 76.3% 82.1% 72.5% 83.1% 86.2% 75.0% 56.3% 70.7% 70.3% 35.7% 0.0% 69.9% % Urban 1997 Census 20.3% 14.9% 23.0% 13.8% 13.3% 26.6% 40.3% 20.0% 23.4% 57.7% 100.0% 26.3% 13 6. Sampling Frame and Units of Analysis • Distribution of the PSU or EAS by Size oh HHs in Mozambique by Province and area of residence. Preliminary Results HHs in the Frame 0-9 Hhs. 10-19 Hhs. 20-49 Hhs. 50-99 Hhs. 100-149 Hhs. 150-199 Hhs. 200-299 Hhs. 300-499 Hhs. 500-999 Hhs. 1000-1999 Hhs. 2000 Hhs. + Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Total Nº of PSUs or Eas Total Urban Rural 281 85 196 446 59 387 5,008 629 4,379 19,133 3,637 15,496 13,789 4,252 9,537 4,253 1,813 2,44 1,578 685 893 338 154 184 58 30 28 35 9 26 8 3 5 Maputo44,927 14 11,356 33,571 6. Sampling Frame, Units of Analysis, Sample Selection Methodology • The Sampling frame is stratified by Province Urban and rural; • The objective of this stratification is to improve the PES Sample Design; • The PSU or EA within each strata was selected by PPS. The number of HH within each was the measure of size. • An implicity stratification by political subdivision (OER Cod, CA_Cod and EA_Cod) was done before sample selection within each strata; Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 15 7. Development of Questionnaire and field manuals • The Moz PES questionnaire was based on the final 2007 General census of Population and Housing Questionnaire; • The 1997 PES (Moz) and the 1991 PES (Ruanda) were used as Reference; • Demographics characteristics included in 2007 PES: Marital status, age, sex and relationships to the head of the HH and the section A of the General Census, that is, the location and area of residence of the HH to facility the matching process; To facility the comparability between 2007 Census data and 2007 PES data, same response categories and precoding system were used; Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 16 7. Development of Questionnaire and field manuals (Cont.) • To facility the field team (enumerators and supervisors), a small Manual with instructions, definitions was prepared; • The PES data collection aims were to identify all usual residents at the time of the 2007 Census in addition to those as of the date of the 2007 PES ( Procedure C in Slide 5-6). Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 17 8. Budgeting/ Pilot test • The 2007 PES Budget Was planned as part of the 2007 census program; • The 2006 PES Pilot was care out to test the Dual System methodology (Procedure C) of the 2007 Census of Population and Housing. This was done during the Pilot General Census of Population and Housing in 2006; Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 18 9. Selection and training of field staff/ data collection • To take the advantage of 2007 General Census enumerators and supervisors, those were used as the field staff of 2007 PES; • They were trained during two days in each province. • The 2007 PES data collection did take place 15 days after 2007 General Census data collection. The objective was to minimize the matching difficulties processes related to the changes to the composition of the HHs between the two Dates. Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 19 10. Omission rates for 2007 Census of Population and Housing Domain/ Province Mozambique Area of Residence Urban Rural Province Niassa Cabo Delgado Nampula Zambézia Tete Manica Sofala Inhambane Gaza Maputo Province Maputo City 95 % Confidence Interval Inferior Sup .017 .024 Estima te .021 Standard Deviation .002 CV Deff .077 19.469 Nº of cases 155819 .021 .020 .002 .002 .017 .016 .025 .024 .105 11.554 .101 23.162 74867 80952 .037 .008 .020 .053 .229 16.520 11894 .019 .027 .013 .015 .016 .030 .005 .004 .003 .003 .005 .009 .008 .019 .007 .009 .007 .012 .029 .035 .019 .021 .025 .047 .289 .156 .220 .198 .299 .296 15.943 22.377 17.445 6.996 17.400 40.461 10086 12326 11184 10609 14529 16461 .027 .007 .007 .001 .012 .005 .042 .010 .279 21.112 .142 1.354 12621 11978 .017 .016 .003 .002 .012 .012 .023 .021 .173 .135 18508 25623 Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 5.975 2.851 20 End Kanimambo Carlos C. Singano Mozambique Maputo 21