Results Generated from the
Questionnaire Disseminated
Prior to the Workshop
Pres. 1
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
The Objective of the Questionnaire
•
To better understand census evaluation activities at the
country level
•
To facilitate the sharing of experience on methods of
census evaluation among countries in the region
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Was PES conducted for 2000 census
Yes : 11
No:
6
 8 countries did not return the questionnaire
•
All countries involved National statistical/population census offices
in planning and conducting PES except Egypt
•
7 countries where PES team different from census team
(Ghana, Lesotho, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia)
•
4 countries used same team for planning census & PES
(Kenya, Liberia, Mozambique, Namibia)
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Funding
•
Planned as part of the census programmed in all
countries except Egypt, Ghana and Kenya
•
Funding adequate in 5 countries (Lesotho, Mozambique,
Namibia, Nigeria and South Africa)
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Objectives of PES
•
Estimate census coverage
•
Characterize missed or over-counted individuals
•
Estimate under-count and over-count for adjusting
census results
•
Learn quality of information collected – content analysis
•
Obtain information for design of future censuses and
surveys
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Recruitment and training of PES staff
•
All countries selected enumerators and supervisors directly
from those used in census except 4
(Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa and Zambia)
•
Selection criteria includes:
 Academic qualification and skills
 Experience, competence and performance in past
enumeration/supervision assignments
 Location e.g. worked in different areas for the census
•
Training periods: About 2-14 days for most countries
 21 days for enumerators in Nigeria
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
PES sampling designs
•
Stratified cluster sampling (one stage) was the most common
design
 Stratified on regions/provinces and urban-rural dichotomy
 Sampling proportional to size in Mozambique and Zambia
•
Two stage designs in South Africa and Liberia
•
Three stage designs in Egypt, Ghana and Nigeria
 Systematic random sampling used in Nigeria
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Sample size for 1st stage units
• EAs were the primary sampling units in most countries
• Sample sizes for EAs range from 224 EAs in Lesotho to 600 EAs
in South Africa
• Mozambique had a minimum of 30 EAs for each province and 40 for the
biggest stratum (the capital city, Maputo)
• 352 in Liberia (5% of a total of 7026 EAs)
• 6 domains were sampled for 1st stage in Egypt (with 3 stage design)
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Domains of analysis
•
National (all countries)
•
Most countries also included
 Urban-rural and regional (provincial) analyses
 District level as well in Ghana
•
Only at national level in Nigeria?
•
Egypt had also analyses for the capital and big cities
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Matching methods and documentation of rules
• Matching method
 Manual: 5 (Kenya, Namibia, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia)
 Computer: 2 (Egypt and Mozambique)
 Combination: 4 (Ghana, Lesotho, Nigeria and South Africa)
• Documentation of rules
 Yes:8 (Egypt, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Nigeria,
South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia)
 No: 2 (Ghana and Namibia)
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Field reconciliation visits
Yes: 9
(Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Nigeria,
South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia)
No: 2
(Mozambique and Namibia)
Note that the field reconciliation process was not
completed in Kenya
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Some of the coverage measures used
•
Nearly all countries used the coverage rate as coverage
measure.
•
Lesotho and South Africa also used the net coverage rate.
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
For content analysis the following were considered
•
Lesotho and South Africa calculated rate of
agreement, net difference rate and index of
inconsistency
•
Lesotho also calculated gross error rate
•
South Africa also calculated gross difference rate (and
off-diagonal proportion)
•
Zambia intended to calculate content error (but the
process was not completed due to technical and
funding constraints)
•
The content analysis was also not completed in Kenya
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Producing report to inform lay users
•
Planned to produce reports for lay users (5 countries – Egypt,
Ghana, Lesotho, South Africa and Tanzania)
•
Not planned to produce reports (Kenya, Nigeria, Uganda and
Zambia)
•
All countries that planned to produce reports did so except Ghana
•
Periods of 3 to 36 months from data collection to publication of PES
reports for lay users
•
Internal reports took periods ranging from 3 weeks for Nigeria to
about 30 months in case of Uganda and Zambia
•
The process was not completed in Kenya
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Using PES/census evaluation results to adjust census figures
Yes : 5 countries (Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa and
Tanzania)
No: 6 countries (Egypt, Ghana, Lesotho, Namibia, Uganda and
Zambia)
Coverage rates used to adjust total population at national and
provincial domains of estimation
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Some details on adjusting census figures
•
In South Africa net undercount rate was used to calculate
adjustment factors within homogenous groups
 Groups defined using Chi-square Automatic Interaction
Detection techniques
 Hierarchical model estimation
•
In Kenya, though matching was not fully done, matched and
reconciled data showed census undercount. A consultant
assisted in adjusting figures.
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Reasons and challenges for not adjusting census figures
•
Incomplete analysis (Ghana and Zambia)
 Technical and funding constraints in Zambia
•
Namibia only matched households and not individual
information
•
Errors within acceptable limits
 Coverage rate and other errors were within acceptable limits
in Tanzania
 Under-coverage of 5.6% in Uganda was also deemed to be
within acceptable limits
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
To achieve independence for PES:
• Different field staff (Nigeria and South Africa).
• Assigning field staff to areas different to where they worked
during census
 Enumerators and supervisors in Lesotho, Namibia and Uganda;
 Supervisors in Kenya and Zambia
• A different organization conducted PES in Egypt and Nigeria
• Different team for planning, implementation and quality control of
PES in Tanzania
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
To achieve independence for PES (cont’d)
• An independent consultant supervised PES implementation in
Uganda
• A different technical committee was responsible for the PES in
Zambia
• In Kenya, different starting point Within an EA for the PES to that
for census; also sampling independently done from headquarters
and later sent to field teams
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Highlight of lessons learned
• Ghana: Planning, documentation and independent body to organize
the PES are essential
• Lesotho: Importance of independence of PES; some knowledge and
experience in planning and implementation
• Mozambique: Need for Piloting PES; organizing short training courses
in PES methodology for PES team
• Namibia: Some households were omitted due to poor supervision in
some areas; accessibility difficulties due to locked gates
 Also could not match individual information due to shortage of staff
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Highlight of lessons learned (cont’d)
Nigeria: Potential problems include nomadic and seasonal movements e.g.
cattle keepers and farmers and the area was large
South Africa:





Bias on adjusting for smaller geographical levels due to smaller samples
Different undercounts for different geographical levels
Need for new methods to account undercount at lower geographical levels
Prolonged census field operations delays those of the PES
Manual matching was required to correct implementation deficiencies
of computer matching
Tanzania:
 To plan PES with the main census e.g. documentation, design
questionnaire and sampling
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Highlight of lessons learned (cont’d)
Uganda:
 To plan PES with the main census
 Need for piloting PES
Zambia:




Need for same format for census and PES questionnaires
Need for computer matching
Review maps not updated during census
Need for appropriate time frames and good timing e.g. flow of resources
Kenya:





Need of independent staff for PES
Plan PES as an integral part of census
Need to do PES within a month after census for memory recall
Plan PES funding within census budget
Need for capacity building especially computer matching
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
PES for 2010 round
•
Many countries (11) are planning to do PES (Gambia,
Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles,
South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia)
•
Egypt and Nigeria are not planning to do PES
•
Mauritius has not yet finalized plans
•
No information on Liberia, Sudan as well as Southern Sudan
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
Some of the objectives mentioned for PES for 2010 round
• Assess quality of census data i.e. determine coverage and content
errors (at different geographical levels)
• Find sources and causes of errors;
• Examine characteristics of persons missed in the census
• Examine implications of any coverage deficiencies on census data
• Provide census data accuracy indicators to users
(e.g. coverage and response quality indicators)
• Adjust census results for under-count or over-count
• Update population estimates and Geographic Information Systems
• Develop and update sampling frames and population registers
(e.g. for intercensal surveys)
• Learn how to improve future censuses and surveys
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009
END
Thank You
United Nations Regional Workshop on the 2010 World Programme on Population and Housing
Censuses: Census Evaluation and Post Enumeration Surveys
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-18 September 2009