Mexico’s XIII Population and Housing Census, 2010 A proposal under study.

Mexico’s XIII Population and
Housing Census, 2010
A proposal under study.
Population Census
A population census is the total process of collecting, compiling,
evaluating, analysing and publishing or otherwise disseminating
demographic, economic and social data pertaining, at a specified time,
to all persons in a country or in a well-delimited part of a country.
Population is basic to the production and distribution of material wealth.
In order to plan for, and implement, economic and social
development, administrative activity or scientific research, it is
necessary to have reliable and detailed data on the size, distribution
and composition of population. The population census is a primary
source of these basic benchmark statistics, covering not only the
settled population but homeless persons and nomadic groups as well.
Data from population censuses may be presented and analysed in
terms of statistics on persons, married couples, families and
households and for a wide variety of geographical units ranging
from the country as a whole to individual small localities or city
Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses Revision 1
Housing Census
A housing census is the total process of collecting, compiling,
evaluating, analysing and publishing or otherwise disseminating
statistical data pertaining, at a specified time, to all living quarters
and occupants thereof in a country or in a well-delimited part of a
The census must provide information on the supply of housing units
together with information on the structural characteristics and facilities
that have a bearing upon the maintenance of privacy and health and
the development of normal family living conditions. Sufficient
demographic, social and economic data concerning the occupants must
be collected to furnish a description of housing conditions and also
to provide basic data for analysing the causes of housing
deficiencies and for studying possibilities for remedial action. In
this connection, data obtained as part of the population census,
including data on homeless persons, are often used in the presentation
and analysis of the results of the housing census.
Principles and Recommendations for Population and Housing Censuses Revision 1
Uses in an integrated programme
of data collection and compilation
1. Uses of population censuses
– (a) Uses for policy-making, planning and administrative purposes
– (b) Uses for research purposes
– (c) Uses for business, industry and labour
2. Uses of housing censuses
– (a) Uses for development of benchmark housing statistics
– (b) Uses for the formulation of housing policy and programmes
3. Relationship between the population census and the housing census
4. Relationship of population and housing censuses to intercensal sample
5. Relationship of population and/or housing censuses to other types of
censuses and other statistical investigations
(a) Census of agriculture
(b) Census of establishments
(c) Census of buildings
(d) System of current housing statistics
(e) Civil registration and vital statistics
6. Relationship of the population census to continuous population registers
Number of topics
Depth of treatment
Geographical detail
Conflict quantity-quality vs. cost
• During the planning stages of the XII
Population and Housing Census, 2000:
– consultations with users
– revision
• Identification of large number of topics and
Conflict quantity-quality vs. cost
• When translated into census forms, high
– Exceedingly high collection costs and,
– High response burden, low quality.
• Conclusion: impossible and useless to ask
everything to everyone.
Conflict quantity-quality vs. cost
• Should renegotiation take place, minor
reductions occur.
• Conclusion: Same as before
• However: users’ needs not satisfied.
• No-win situation: high costs – poor quality,
as before, but poor analytical capabilities.
Conflict quantity-quality vs. cost
• Option No. 1:
– One-sided reduction of covered topics and
– Expected results:
• manageable costs;
• improvement in information quality;
• reduction of study capabilities due to superficial
treatment and/or elimination of topics;
• greatest geographical detail
Conflict quantity-quality vs. cost
• Option No. 2:
– Use two sets of questions:
• Basic, to be given to everyone; short form;
• Complementary, to a sample; long form.
– Expected results:
reasonable increase in costs
new topics included and/or improved depth
gains in analytical capabilities;
total geographical detail for a subset of topics only
minor losses in quality of response;
unfulfilled users’ expectations.
Conflict quantity-quality vs. cost
14 items for
3 for households
Up to 29 for
Conflict quantity-quality vs. cost
Census forms
• Purpose: “seek balance to optimize use of
resources for information collection and
• In particular, long form improves supply of
information keeping costs in check.
• In other words: improve on quantityquality vs. cost relationship (QQ-C).
Number of topics and depth of treatment
• Traditional methodologies currently in use
do not allow for much improvement.
• Additional questions (in long form) fail to
go deep enough.
Geographical detail
• Adequate for limited number of topics
• Not so for the rest (sample).
Dissemination of results:
• Descriptive statistics for topics covered by
census and sample.
• Both exercises treated inedependently.
• Under current analysis methodologies,
difficult to improve on QQ- C relationship.
• necessary to explore new alternatives not
available until recently. Purpose: to
improve on QQ-C.
• missing oportunity: use of long forms for
statistical modelling and analysis; results
applied to enrich information supply.
Results could be used to estimate:
• Individual answers; or
• Totals or averages for:
living quarters,
city blocks,
census tracts,
depending on standard deviations.
• Ideally, to complement the census data
base from the sampling exercise.
A number of models are
fitted using data obtained
from the sample. Their
results are used to
estimate answers from the
population segment which
received only the short
14 questions for
dwellings+3 for
households+ up to
29 for individual
3d+0h+ up to 20i
14d+3h+ up to 29i
e. g.: E(y)=f(x)
•Based on the enlarged data base, long-form topics
could be studied in greater geographic detail.
Side advantages
Development of infrastructure
• Human resources
• Analytical tools.
– Methodological
– Computational
available for other projects.
Proposal No. 3
• Concerning only census operations
– Short form (kept growing, early XX century)
– Short form - Long form. (keep growing, late
XX century)
– Short form - many tematic forms.
• Statistical systems (XXI Century).
– Administrative records
– Surveys
– Censuses
Depending on success
• Proposal No. 3 (for 2010):
– Universally applied battery of questions.
– As many additional batteries as
identified relevant topics, applied to
separate samples.
– Estimation
geographical level.
Proposal No. 3
Proposal No. 3
• Proposal No. 3(Cont):
– Expected results:
• marginal cost increase
• same quality of data gathered
• greater number of covered topics
• greater depth of coverage
• greater geographical representation
– In other words, almost the ideal situation.
Required actions
Census topics
• Consultations with users
– Analysis of past experiences
– Analysis of legal requirements
– Analysis of international initiatives
• In order to reach consensus as to
relevance of topics
Future actions
Study and statement of relationships
• Study of theoretical relationships put
forward by experts on the subject.
• “Letting information speak”.
• In both instances, analysis of data from
many sources:
– Census and sample, year 2000
– Reglar surveys
– Other surveys
Future actions
Study and statement of relationships
• With a view to determining optimal sets of
explanatory variables
– Use models at different levels of geographical
• Determine also “unpredictable” variables.
Future actions
Determining sets of questions
• Integration of basic and thematic forms on
the basis of statistical considerations
(predictive capacity and/or non-response
• Ideally (and practically) limited to a small
number of questions.
Future actions
Determining sets of questions
• Statement and testing of census forms.
• Establishment of expected quality of
answers, including non-response.
Future actions
Sampling design
• Simple random sampling is ignorable, in
most instances
• however, same dwelling may be selected
for application of more than one type of
• Therefore, more complex designs may be