United Nations Expert Group Meeting on International
Standards for Civil Registration and Vital Statistics Systems
27 – 30 June 2011 New York
The Vital Statistics System
in China
Wu Jie
Department of Population and Employment
National Bureau of Statistics of China
Total Population of 2010 Census
National Population
Outline
1. The Vital Statistics System in China
2. 2010 Population census in China
3. Annual Population Change Sample
Survey
4. Administrative records
5. Comparing and evaluating the quality
of vital statistics
1. The Vital Statistics System in China
Census
System
Administrative
records
Sample
survey
Censuses
Sequence
Year
Population
(million)
First
1953
594.53
Second
1964
694.58
Third
1982
1008.18
Fourth
1990
1133.68
Fifth
2000
1265.83
Sixth
2010
1339.72
Sample survey
The 1% population sample survey, conducted
during the inter-censual years ending in 5
The annual 1‰ sample survey on population
changes
Quarterly labor force survey
The monthly labor force survey, usually running in
big cities
Administrative records
Supplement sources to those collected
through regular population census and
sample surveys
2010 Population Census in China
Reference time
Respondent
Process of 2010 Census
Challenges
New Characteristics
Census Items
Initial findings
2010 Population Census in China
Reference time: 1 November 2010
Respondent:
de Facto living persons;
 household registration persons (de jure) for
outgoing migrants
Process of 2010 Census
Preparation
(Oct.2007- Oct.2010)
Field enumeration (Nov.1-10,2010)
Field check
(Nov.11-20,2010 )
Post enumeration survey (Dec. 2010)
Advance tabulation (Dec. 2010-Apr. 2011)
Data processing
(Dec. 2010- Dec.2011)
Data dissemination
(Apr.2011 ----–2013)
and utilization
Challenges for
Census-taking in China
Difficulty in Counting Migrant Population
Greater Residence-registration
Inconsistency
Lower Cooperation from Respondents
Under-reporting of Births
Difficulty in Recruiting Enumerators
Establishing strict quality control and acceptance
systems
New Characteristics for
2010 Population Census
Stronger Legal Basis
Changes in enumeration method
Collection information on international migrants
Remote sensing images in aid of census divisions
and mapping
Topics covered in the Census
Wider use of administrative records
Improving data processing efficiency
Stronger Legal Basis
Regulations on Population census
specifies objectives, principles and methods
more emphasis on rights of respondents
stronger protection of privacy
Changes in enumeration method
de Facto approach (as compared with de jure
approach used in 2000 census)
information also collected at the place of
household registration (de jure) for outgoing
migrants
operationally easier for enumerators
more information on migration
Collection information on
international migrants
cover foreigners who have resided in
China for some time
a shorter questionnaire (8 questions) was
used and in-person interview was
conducted
Remote sensing images in aid of
census divisions and mapping
divide census enumeration areas nationwide:
nearly 7 million areas
remote sensing images were used in preparing
maps of census areas and blocks: full coverage
census areas without duplication or omission.
prepare basic material for the spatial analysis of
population by combining census data and
spatial positions.
Topics covered in the Census
combination of long form (10%) and
short form (90%)
short form：6 household items, 12
individual items
long form: 19 household items, 28
individual items
Wider use of administrative
records
resident population and migrants
information from the household
registration administered by the Ministry
of Public Security
birth information collected by family
planning departments, the health
department as well as the community and
village committees
Improving data processing fficiency
a decentralized strategy
OCR data entry, conducted at municipallevel
a Chinese-character handwriting
recognition technology: nationality and
residence address directly identified
Establishing strict quality control
and acceptance systems
quality control teams at all levels
a routine check-up and a random spot
check
Post enumeration survey: after field
enumeration, a total of 402 enumeration
blocks were randomly selected to conduct
post-enumeration survey to compare with
the records of census enumeration, which
resulted in a population undercount rate
of 0.12 percent.
Duplicated rate & Uncoverage rate
1982
Duplicated rate
0.15‰
1990
Uncoverage rate
0.6‰
2000
Uncoverage rate
1.81%
2010
Uncoverage rate
1.2‰
Items round 2010 census
Household & Individual:
sex, age, ethnicity, education level, industry,
occupation, social security, marriage and
fertility, mortality, migration, housing,
unemployment
Short Form: Household Items (6)
• H1: household no.
• H2: type of household (family, collective)
• H3: number of persons
• H4: births and deaths during last 12 months
• H5: floor space of housing
• H6: number of rooms
Short Form: Individual Items (12)
• R1: name
• R2: relation with head of
household
• R3: gender
• R4: date of birth
• R5: nationality
(ethnic group)
• R6: place of residence at
reference time
• R7: place of household
registration
• R8: duration since leaving
place of household
registration
• R9: reason for leaving
place of household
registration
• R10: nature of household
registration (agri. vs
non-agri)
• R11: ability to read
• R12: education attainment
Long Form: Household Items (17)
• H1-H4: same as in short
form
• H5: nature of housing
• H6: floor space of housing
• H7: number of rooms
• H8: type of building
(single or multi-floor)
• H9: construction of
building
• H10: time when building
was constructed
• H11: with/without access
to pipe water
• H12: fuel for cooking
• H13: with/without kitchen
• H14: with/without toilet
• H15: with/without hot
water bathing facility
• H16: source of housing
• H17: monthly rent (in case
of renting)
Long Form: Individual Items (28)
R1-R12: for all persons
• R1-R9: same as in short
form
• R10: nature of residence at
household registration
(urban/rural)
• R11: nature of household
registration (agri. vs
non-agri)
• R12: place of birth
R13: (persons aged 5 and
over)
• R13: address of residence
5 years ago
R14-16: (persons aged 6 and
over)
• R14: ability to read
• R15: education attainment
• R16: status of completion
of education
Long Form: Individual Items (28)
R17-25: (persons aged 15 and
over)
• R17: status of employment
• R21: whether having
looked for work during
last 3 months
• R19: occupation
• R22: able/unable to work
in 2 weeks if given a job
• R20: reason for not
working
• R24: marital status
• R18: industry
• R23: sources of living
• R25: date of first marriage
Long Form: Individual Items (28)
R26: (woman aged 15-64)
• R26: number of births (male, female) and number
of children surviving (male, female)
R27: (woman aged 15-50)
• R27: fertility status during last 12 months
(with/without births, month when giving first or
second and more birth, gender of baby)
R28: (persons aged 60 and over)
• R28: health condition
Initial vital statistics findings
Total Population and Annual Growth
Rate from Population Censuses
Sex Composition from Population
Censuses
Age Composition from Population
Censuses
Age Pyramid from Population
Censuses
Proportion of Population Aged 60+ and
65+ from Population Censuses
Composition of Nationalities from
Population Censuses
Population with College Education Per
100,000 Persons from Population Censuses
Population Migration
Geographic Distribution of
Population
39
Residents from Hong Kong, Macao,
Taiwan and Foreigners
40
Annual Population Change
Sample Survey (APS)
Established officially from 1983
Conducted by NBS in China once a year
Provide reliable population data at the
national and provincial level every year such
as:
– annual total population
– population structural
– fertility and mortality
–…
Items on APS
Covers key items that are collected in
censuses
– sex, age, ethnicity, the level of education,
marital status, fertility, mortality,
migration and etc.
A survey methodology book is published
every year for training and supervision
Sample Survey
Multi-stage, with stratified clusters
proportional to size
Taking the whole country as the
population and provincial level as subpopulation
The sample size is 1.2 million persons
Sampling design method
Population annual and
labor force quarterly
survey samples
are rotated by
certain proportion
multi-stage
stratified clusters
proportional
sampling
the whole country
as population,
provincial level as
sub-population
Final sample unit is
enumeration area,
enumeration areas
divided by 30 households
The fourth quarter labor force
survey samples are the
same as population survey
The sample size
（10,000 persons）
Population
change
Quarterly
labor force
120
60
40
40
Rural
80
20
Average by
province
4
2
the whole
Nation
Urban and
Town
Calculating main data from
sample Survey
Estimating main data on population
and sub population: Total population,
CBR, CDR, …
Analyzing sampling variance
Evaluating data quality
Publications
Administrative records
Departments involved
The Ministry of Public Security
The Ministry of Civil Affairs
The Ministry of Health
The Ministry of Education
The Population and
family planning committee
Ministries’ data dissemination
Ministry
The Ministry of
Public Security
The Ministry of
Civil Affairs
Dissemination
household registration data
marriages and deaths
The Ministry of
Health
maternal and child health
cause of death
The Ministry of
Education
education statistics
5. Comparing and evaluating
the quality of vital statistics
Three main resources obtaining the major
population data:
– survey conducted by National Statistical
Bureau
– census conducted by National Statistical
Bureau
– administrative records mainly refers to
household registration collected by the
Ministry of Public Security
Comparing data sources
Index
Survey
Household
Registration
1% or 1‰
household
registration
Data on
registered
permanent
residence above
county level
Census
Specifications
Resident
Full
Coverage
usual population
Indicators
Remarks
total population, CBR, CDR, total population
Urban population proportion,
CBR, CDR, etc.
etc.
not getting
Uncoverage
undercount
small area
people without
0.12% (2010)
result
registration
The same standard
in survey and census
Three types of resident peoples from censuses and
surveys with the same standard:
– residing in the township, towns and street
communities with permanent household
registration there
– residing in the township, towns and street
communities, with permanent household
registration elsewhere, away from that place for
more than 6 months
– residing in the township, towns and street
communities, with place of permanent household
registration unsettled
The Relationship among
Census, Survey and Project
Adjust the
historical data
The Census
the Base
The Sample Survey
The Project
Modify
Estimation
and Communiqué
The publication of
the Ministry of Public Security
Publish yearbook every year
– releasing about data on the total population
including provincial and small area
population
– Using Permanent Household Registration
statistical method which is different
definitions and data collection methods
from survey and census
The Difference of total population
Different resources, different total
population data:
– For example in 2008, the total population
is 1328.02 million people by NBS, and the
household registration population is
1321.31 million people. The main reason
of difference is that some people do not
have household registration
Estimating and Adjusting
the Survey data
According to the census and administrative
records, major annual population data by
nation and province are estimated from
survey
After the National Population Census, a few
years survey data before censuses will be
estimated and analyzed, and decided
whether data should be adjusted
Administrative records are effective
complement and reference during
estimating data in survey
The Application of
Administrative Records
The composition of population can be
checked and estimated by the education
data, especially the birth data
The data from the Ministry of Civil
Affairs is the main source of annual
marriages and divorces
The data from the Ministry of Health is
the main resource of cause of death
Conclusion
Population censuses and sample surveys are
the main sources of the vital statistics in
China
Administrative records are effective
complement and reference of the censuses
and surveys
How administrative records and sample
survey can be combined to generate small
area population estimates is now being
investigated
Database system
National basic repository of the population
information, based on data from relevant
agencies such as
– Public Security, Family Planning, Human
Resources and Social Security, Housing
and Urban-rural, Education,
Transportation, Industry and Commerce,
Taxation, and financial information
system resources