Population censuses and surveys as complementary sources of a vital statistical system
László Kajdi
Hungarian Central Statistical Office
Expert Group Meeting on
International Standards for Civil
Registration and Vital Statistics
Systems, 27-30 June 2011

Reasons for the development of the vital statistics system
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 Change in legal regulations
 Change in technical, IT circumstances
 New reuirements of political, social decision makers
 Change of international data production demands
 Needs of users, professional stakeholders
 Changes in social-demographic processes

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Civil registration system:
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Livebirths, deaths, including foetal and infant deaths
Marriages, registered partnerships, divorces
Internal and international migration
Legal background: Act on Statistics, decree on the implementation
Comprehensive data collection, processing, dissemination
Next census in October 2011

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I. Vital statistics data and indicators based on census data
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Vital statistics by socio-economic status
(SES)
Fertility analyses
Projection of the female population by the number of children
Census data on migration
Differences between census and projected population

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 If census and vital statistics data linked by an identification number: directly
 If there is no ID number: census population = denominator
 3 main indicators: education, occupation, economic status
 Numerator-denominator bias; standards
 LFS, HALE

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 Number of children by cohorts, analyses by
SES
 Sex preferences – level of fertility
 Differences by legal and actual marital status
 Information on ethnicity
 Male fertility

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I.3 Projection of the female population by the number of children
 Female census population by date of birth, age, number of children as initial data
 Tables from the data of annual livebirth and death statistics with the same disaggregation
 The projection is based on the biological live birth order
 Main purpose: analysis of fertility and childbearing behaviour by cohorts in intercensus years

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 Fertility and mortality differences between the immigrating and native population
 Census: improve the accuracy of migration data
 Mirror statistics: use at other fields too, e.g. births and deaths in foreign countries

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I.5 Differences between census and projected population
 Is it worth to revise population data and indicators, in what disaggregation
 No international standards for the acceptable deviation
 No break in time series vs. two data for the same time period, resource need

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II. Sample surveys as complementary information
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Healthy life expectancy (HLE)
Unmet need for contraception
Voluntary and involuntary childlessness
Realizing childbearing intentions

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 Extended life expectancy vs. life quality
 Measuring mortality conditions and health status paralell with time spent in good health conditions
 Information on health status from repr. surveys, EU-SILC e.g.
 Soft indicator: answers by self-assessment

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 Differences between developing and developed countries
 Problems: sensitivity, resources
 Hungarian experiences
 Complementary indicator: induced abortions per hundred live births

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II.3 Voluntary and involuntary childlessness
 Countries with low fertility, trends of the age of childbearing and marriage
 Reasons for childlessness: voluntary, involuntary
 Social effects: Low fertility trap, health risk factors, social policy

II.4 Realizing childbearing intentions
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 Family planning – the use of modern contraceptive methods
 Childbearing intentions vs. Actual fertility
 Role of sample surveys, social policy
 REPRO: 4 countries: Bulgaria, Hungary,
Netherlands, Switzerland; 3 categories: intentional parents, postponers, abandoners

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Thank you for your attention!