Population censuses and surveys as complementary sources of a vital statistical system

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Population censuses and surveys as complementary sources of a vital statistical system

László Kajdi

Hungarian Central Statistical Office

Expert Group Meeting on

International Standards for Civil

Registration and Vital Statistics

Systems, 27-30 June 2011

Reasons for the development of the vital statistics system

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 Change in legal regulations

 Change in technical, IT circumstances

 New reuirements of political, social decision makers

 Change of international data production demands

 Needs of users, professional stakeholders

 Changes in social-demographic processes

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Hungarian vital statistics system

Civil registration system:

Livebirths, deaths, including foetal and infant deaths

Marriages, registered partnerships, divorces

Internal and international migration

Legal background: Act on Statistics, decree on the implementation

Comprehensive data collection, processing, dissemination

Next census in October 2011

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I. Vital statistics data and indicators based on census data

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Vital statistics by socio-economic status

(SES)

Fertility analyses

Projection of the female population by the number of children

Census data on migration

Differences between census and projected population

I.1 Vital statistics by SES

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 If census and vital statistics data linked by an identification number: directly

 If there is no ID number: census population = denominator

 3 main indicators: education, occupation, economic status

 Numerator-denominator bias; standards

 LFS, HALE

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I.2 Fertility analyses

 Number of children by cohorts, analyses by

SES

 Sex preferences – level of fertility

 Differences by legal and actual marital status

 Information on ethnicity

 Male fertility

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I.3 Projection of the female population by the number of children

 Female census population by date of birth, age, number of children as initial data

 Tables from the data of annual livebirth and death statistics with the same disaggregation

 The projection is based on the biological live birth order

 Main purpose: analysis of fertility and childbearing behaviour by cohorts in intercensus years

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I.4 Census data on migration

 Fertility and mortality differences between the immigrating and native population

 Census: improve the accuracy of migration data

 Mirror statistics: use at other fields too, e.g. births and deaths in foreign countries

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I.5 Differences between census and projected population

 Is it worth to revise population data and indicators, in what disaggregation

 No international standards for the acceptable deviation

 No break in time series vs. two data for the same time period, resource need

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II. Sample surveys as complementary information

1.

2.

3.

4.

Healthy life expectancy (HLE)

Unmet need for contraception

Voluntary and involuntary childlessness

Realizing childbearing intentions

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II.1 Healthy life expectancy

 Extended life expectancy vs. life quality

 Measuring mortality conditions and health status paralell with time spent in good health conditions

 Information on health status from repr. surveys, EU-SILC e.g.

 Soft indicator: answers by self-assessment

II.2 Unmet need for contraception

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 Differences between developing and developed countries

 Problems: sensitivity, resources

 Hungarian experiences

 Complementary indicator: induced abortions per hundred live births

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II.3 Voluntary and involuntary childlessness

 Countries with low fertility, trends of the age of childbearing and marriage

 Reasons for childlessness: voluntary, involuntary

 Social effects: Low fertility trap, health risk factors, social policy

II.4 Realizing childbearing intentions

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 Family planning – the use of modern contraceptive methods

 Childbearing intentions vs. Actual fertility

 Role of sample surveys, social policy

 REPRO: 4 countries: Bulgaria, Hungary,

Netherlands, Switzerland; 3 categories: intentional parents, postponers, abandoners

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Thank you for your attention!

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