Measuring Progress towards
Green Growth through indicators
OECD work
UNCEEA
Sixth meeting
New York, 15-17 June 2011
Measuring progress towards Green growth
OECD approach
• Monitoring progress through indicators at the core of the
Green Growth Strategy
• Founded on existing work and experience
• Measurement framework
• Proposed list of indicators
– No composite indicator, rather a set of indicators
– Selection of 25 indicators; about 20 measurable now
– Selection criteria: Policy relevance; Analytical soundness;
Measurability
– A dynamic process   feedback from countries, from policy use
• Measurement agenda
Measuring progress towards Green growth
Definition
Fostering economic growth and
development while ensuring that the
natural assets continue to provide
the resources and environmental
services on which our well-being
relies.
Catalyse investment and innovation
which will underpin sustained
growth and give rise to new
economic opportunities
Monitoring progress towards Green growth
Measurement framework
Economic activities (production, consumption, trade)
Outputs
Consumption
Households
Governments
Investments
Income
Goods& services
Residuals
Production
Recycling,
re-use,
re-manufacturing,
substitution
Policies,
measures,
opportunities
Inputs
4
Labour
Capital
Resources
Multi-factor
productivity
3
Amenities, health &
safety aspects
Service
functions
1
Energy & raw materials
water, land, biomass, air
Pollutants
waste
Sink
functions
2
Resource
functions
Natural asset base (capital stocks and environmental quality)
The socio-economic context and characteristics of growth
1 Indicators monitoring environmental and resource productivity
2 Indicators monitoring the natural asset base
3 Indicators monitoring the environmental quality of life
4 Indicators monitoring economic opportunities and policy responses
Taxes
Subsidies,
Regulations
Investments
Innovation
Trade
Education &
training
Monitoring progress towards Green growth
Measurement framework: Themes and subthemes
The environmental and
resource productivity of the
economy
The natural asset base
The environmental dimension
of quality of life
• Carbon and energy productivity
• Resource productivity: materials, nutrients, water
• Multi-factor productivity
• Renewable stocks: water, forest, fish resources
• Non-renewable stocks: mineral resources
• Biodiversity and ecosystems
• Environmental health and risks
• Environmental services and amenities
Economic opportunities and
policy responses
•
•
•
•
•
•
Technology and innovation
Production of environmental goods & services
International financial flows
Prices and transfers
Skills and training
Regulations and management approaches
Socio-economic context and
characteristics of growth
•
•
•
•
Economic growth and structure
Productivity and trade
Labour markets
Socio-demographic patterns
Monitoring progress towards green growth
The foundations
Measuring the progress of societies – OECD work and Global project – GDP and beyond
UNEP
indicators
Monitoring progress towards Green Growth
Socio-economic
context and
growth
characteristics
Environmental
and resources
productivity
Natural asset
base and
environmental
quality
Environmental
quality of life
Economic
opportunities
and policies
Review & selection:
• Policy relevance
•Analytical soundness
•Mesaurability
EU
indicators
SEEA
OECD indicators and statistical databases
Economic
performance
National accounts
Productivity
Employment
Education
Environmental
performance
Science&
Technology
Material flows
and resource
productivity
Innovation
Entrepreneurship
Energy
Agriculture
Trade
Transport
Development
aid
Investment
Member
countries
IGOs
6
Climate change (1) 1990-2000: relative decoupling on the
production side...but hardly absolute decoupling
ZONE 1:
No decoupling
Change in energy related CO2 emissions (%, 1990-2000)
90
KOR
75
CHL
ISR
60
TUR
PRT
45
ZONE 2:
Relative, but no absolute
decoupling
ESP
NZL
30
MEX
GRC
15
0
0
-15
CAN
NOR
ISL
SVN
JPN
USA
OECD30
BEL
NLD
ITA
FRA AUT
SWE
DNK
CHE
FIN
15
30
45
UK
DEU
POL
CZE
-30
AUS
60
75
90
ZONE 3:
Absolute decoupling
LUX
Change of GDP (%, 1990-2000)
IRL
Climate change (2) 2000-2009: broad relative decoupling on the
production side...some more absolute decoupling
ZONE 1:
No decoupling
Change in energy related CO2 emissions (%, 2000-2008)
90
75
60
ZONE 2:
Relative, but no absolute
decoupling
45
CHL
LUX TUR
30
AUS
15
0
0
-15
-30
SVN
MEX
KOR
AUT
ISR
NZLSPA
NOR
IRL
CHE CAN GRC
ITA NLD
ISL POL
FIN
DEUFRA OECD30 HUN
JPN
15USA
30
GBR
CZE45
DNK BEL
PRT SWE
EST
60 SVK
Change of GDP (%, 2000-2008)
75
90
ZONE 3:
Absolute decoupling
Climate change (3): differences between production and demandbased emissions
Production
-based CO2
Demandbased CO2
Economic opportunities: to date, ‘Green industries’ represent a
modest share of the economy…
Share of employment as
percentage of total economy
2.5%
But:
2.0%
• classifications matter
• type of product or sector is
only part of the picture
1.5%
 How best to monitor the
transitions? And
characterize the greening of
the economy?
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2002
(*) Total economy corresponds to ISIC sectors 10 to 74, excluding sectors 65 to 67
ISIC 37: recycling
ISIC 41: collection, purification and distribution of water
ISIC 90: Sewage and refuse disposal, sanitation and similar activities
2007
Monitoring progress towards green growth
…many measurement and data issues remain… (1)
• Getting the indicators right
– Balance between ‘green’ and ‘growth’
– Relevance for policy analysis/evaluation, for communication
– Relevance for international work, for countries
• Improving the quality of measurement
– Importance of consistent accounting system to combine
economic and environmental data ( SEEA)
• Filling gaps
– Sectoral data  structural changes
– Measuring natural assets (stocks, flows)
• physical values: biodiversity; land use; mineral resources
• monetary values
– Measuring material flows and resource productivity
Monitoring progress towards green growth
…many measurement and data issues remain… (2)
• Filling gaps
–
–
–
–
Measuring innovation and investment
Measuring the “greening” of economic sectors
Monitoring regulatory approaches
Measuring health and risks  economic impacts
• Embed green growth measurement into existing growth
accounting frameworks and productivity measures
• Identify a small set of headline indicators
Monitoring progress towards green growth
Next steps
• CSTAT (16-17 June 2011); WPEI (15-17 November 2011)
• Refine indicator set
• Identify headline indicators
– Small task force: correlation, criteria
– Coordination with UNEP GE indicators
• Contribute to SEEA implementation
– Land; non-energy and energy mineral resources
– Timber resources
• Extended growth accounting
– Growth contributions of natural assets
– Valuation of land and selected natural resources
• Mainstream GG in country studies and in policy analysis
(Going for growth)
• Next report end 2012-Q1 2013