"Who Will Rule the 21st Century? Economic Success, Military Strength, and the Rise
and Fall of Great Powers”
Michael O’Hanlon
April 2014
DRAFT SYLLABUS
In the late 1980s, as U.S. GDP growth slowed, budget deficits remained stubbornly high,
and other economies outperformed that of the United States, it was frequent to hear
people argue that “the Cold War is over—and Japan and Germany won.” At least those
latter powers were U.S. allies. Since that time, moreover, they have encountered their
own challenges--Germany in reintegrating its own eastern half and then helping establish
the viability (and solvency) of the EU and Euro systems, Japan in dealing with a
protracted deflating of its earlier financial bubble combined with demographic challenges
that leave its future economic prospects uncertain and political challenges that keep it
weaker than might be expected.
Today, we are witnessing a period of even greater American economic travails, much
larger fiscal deficits, and the concern that less friendly powers—China, Russia, perhaps
India and others—may be poised to benefit from the relative decline of the United States
in specific and the West in general. Is this true? Even more to the point for this course,
what do these shifting economic realities bode for the future of American power and
ultimately the security of this country and its
This course, informed by both historical and technical perspectives, will wrestle with
such broad questions about the architecture of the international power system. It will
consider the relative decline of the United States and many of its major western allies that
many consider to be already underway, and only likely to accelerate--asking not only if it
is indeed a reality, but also what its likely magnitude and scope will be. It will examine
the promise of the rising powers, together with the structural constraints and other
impediments that they will have to face themselves as they seek greater stature, clout, and
prosperity in the 21st century.
The course will be informed by readings such as Paul Kennedy’s Rise and Fall of the
Great Powers with its emphasis on the last five centuries, literature from the abovementioned 1980s debate in the United States, and more contemporary materials. It will
also include readings on China’s economic prognosis, on America’s technical and
scientific fundamentals, and other related matters. The ultimate purpose of the course is
to help students assess the emerging power structures of the 21st century and determine
how they think the United States as well as other countries can best adapt to—or alter—
the tectonic shifts that are already evident and only likely to intensify.
SYLLABUS
Sessions One and Two: Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, pp. 3-274.
Session Three: Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World
Session Four: Robert Kagan, The World America Made
Session Five: Charles Kupchan, No One’s World
Session Six: Bruce Jones, Still Ours to Lead
Session Seven: William Antholis, China and India Inside Out
Session Eight: Roett, The New Brazil
Session Nine: Riedel, Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America, and the Future of the
Global Jihad
Session Ten: Richard K. Betts, American Force, pp. 50-200
Session Eleven: Zbigniew Brzezinski, Strategic Vision
Session Twelve: Eric Edelman, Understanding America’s Contested Primacy
SUPPLEMENTAL READINGS
Boot, War Made New
Brown, Higher Realism
Burtless et.al., Globaphobia
Bush, O’Hanlon, A War Like No Other
Carter, Perry, Preventive Defense
Clarke, Cyber War
Fishman, China, Inc.
Friedberg, Aaron, A Contest for Supremacy
Friedman, Tom (and Mike Mandelbaum), That Used to Be Us
Hobbes, Leviathan
Hu, China in 2020
Ikenberry, John, After Victory
Jones, Pascual, Stedman, Power and Responsibility
Keohane, After Hegemony
Khanna, The Second World
Kose/Prasad, Emerging Markets
Lake, Six Nightmares
Lieber, Power and Willpower in the American Future
Lieberthal, Managing the China Challenge
Machiavelli, The Prince
Slaughter, A New World Order
Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War
Tzu, The Art of War
Van Agtmael, The Emerging Markets Century
Van Tol, AirSea Battle
Von Clausewitz, On War
Walker, Comeback America
West, Brain Gain
Zakaria, The Post American World
Kaplan, Monsoon
Gaddy and Hill, on Putin