"Who Will Rule the 21st Century? Economic Success, Military Strength, and the Rise
and Fall of Great Powers”
Michael O’Hanlon, mohanlon@brookings.edu
January 2015
In the late 1980s, as U.S. GDP growth slowed, budget deficits remained stubbornly high,
and other economies outperformed that of the United States, it was frequent to hear
people argue that “the Cold War is over—and Japan and Germany won.” At least those
latter powers were U.S. allies. Since that time, moreover, they have encountered their
own challenges—Germany in reintegrating its own eastern half and then helping
establish the viability of the EU and Euro systems, Japan in dealing with prolonged
economic difficulties and demographic decline.
Today, we are witnessing a period of even greater American economic travails, greater
national debt relative to the size of the economy, and the concern that less friendly
powers—especially China and Russia—may be poised to benefit from the relative
decline of the United States in specific and the West in general. Is this true? Even more
to the point for this course, what do these shifting economic realities bode for the future
of American power and ultimately the security of this country and its allies?
This course, informed by both historical and technical perspectives, will wrestle with
such broad questions about the architecture of the international power system. It will
consider the relative decline of the United States and many of its major western allies that
many consider to be already underway, and only likely to accelerate. It will examine the
promise of the rising powers, together with the structural constraints and other
impediments that they will have to face themselves as they seek greater stature, clout, and
prosperity in the 21st century.
The course will also include readings and discussion on a number of specific and
sometimes technical issues, such as China’s economic prognosis, America’s technical
and scientific fundamentals, global energy and climate trends, and dangers from
technologies such as nuclear weapons.
Grading will be based on class presentations, discussions, and a final paper or exam.
The ultimate purpose of the course is to help students assess the emerging power
structures of the 21st century and determine how they think the United States as well as
other countries can best adapt to, or if possible alter, the tectonic shifts that are already
evident and only likely to intensify.
SYLLABUS
Sessions One and Two: Henry Kissinger, On China
Session Three: William Antholis, Inside Out India and China (India sections only)
Session Four: Bruce Riedel, Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America, and the Future of the
Global Jihad
Sessions Five and Six: Fiona Hill and Cliff Gaddy, Mr. Putin, revised ed. (pp. 227-398)
Sessions Seven and Eight: Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World
Sessions Nine and Ten: Bruce Jones, Still Ours to Lead
Session Eleven: Bob Kagan, The World America Made
Session Twelve: Richard K. Betts, American Force, pp. 50-200
SUPPLEMENTAL READINGS
Boot, War Made New
Brown, Higher Realism
Burtless et.al., Globaphobia
Bush, O’Hanlon, A War Like No Other
Carter, Perry, Preventive Defense
Clarke, Cyber War
Fishman, China, Inc.
Friedberg, Aaron, A Contest for Supremacy
Friedman, Tom (and Mike Mandelbaum), That Used to Be Us
Hobbes, Leviathan
Hu, China in 2020
Ikenberry, John, After Victory
Jones, Pascual, Stedman, Power and Responsibility
Keohane, After Hegemony
Khanna, The Second World
Kose/Prasad, Emerging Markets
Lake, Six Nightmares
Lieber, Power and Willpower in the American Future
Lieberthal, Managing the China Challenge
Machiavelli, The Prince
Slaughter, A New World Order
Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War
Tzu, The Art of War
Van Agtmael, The Emerging Markets Century
Van Tol, AirSea Battle
Von Clausewitz, On War
Walker, Comeback America
West, Brain Gain