FUTURREG Using futures tools in regional development projects 2nd Steering Committee meeting January 24, 2005 URENIO, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki FUTURREG Futures tools report « Visionary management » Visionary management consists in bringing a group of actors - involved in a territory (defined or to be defined), a business or an organisation, etc. - to project their ideas into the long-term future in order to envisage the goals and values that form a common vision of their future on behalf of the general interest, and to do this in a collective and shared dynamics. A vision is a shared picture of the desired future. The vision is made up of the ultimate aims which could show the long-term direction that should guide the common strategy of the decision makers, the stakeholders and the citizens Visionary management is actually part of a strategic foresight process structured in five main phases 1 Strategic actions Ultimate aims and vision Identification and diagnosis 2 Long term issues 3 4 Strategy The first three phases formulate the vision, followed by the two final phases of the strategy 5 Methods Identification and diagnosis Objectives Broad and complete information base Expressing the mental representations, confronting with the realities, sharing of the diagnosis Foresight workshops, SWOT analysis, benchmarking, etc. Ultimate aims, Long term common issues vision Scope Sources of change, internal and external trends and impacts in terms of issues Global driving forces, main issues role and power of actors against issues Futures workshops, computer-based tools (MICMAC), control matrix Normative phase of defining a future vision Desirable futures, sharing of the vision Matrices comparing possible and desirable futures Identification and diagnosis Providing Knowledge base Identify the common ground Express the mental representations Confrontation with the realities Sharing of the diagnosis Foresight Workshops SWOT Analysis Assessment data Benchmarking Setting out the long-term issues Exploring the possible futures Gearing global with local Grading the long term issues Trends Issues Gearing Importance vs Control Matrix LIPSOR’s MICMAC Software Global External Trends Trends Issues Gearing Movement Fabienne Goux-Baudiment Namur, 01.06.18 ISSUES Internal Trends Local Past Future Importance of the changes / inertias Strong Importance vs Control Matrix Michel Godet Creating Futures 2001, p. 95. Weak Current control Weak Strong Building the Aims and the Common Vision Formulating the desirable futures Ultimate Aims Sharing of the vision Foresight Workshops Possibles vs Desirables Matrix How to bridge the present with desired future ? THE ULTIMATE AIMS = THE VISION 2010 2020 2015 THE ISSUES DIAGNOSIS Graphisme Nicolas George Complementarity/synergy with other tools ►Two key facets of the foresight approach : – the exploratory foresight, in order to elucidate the evolutionary trends and deduce the underlying issues in terms of threats or opportunities; – the normative foresight in order to form visions of desirable futures and develop collective strategies. ►Scenarios approach is a tool that can be integrated in the proposed approach to illustrate the spectrum of possible futures before building the chosen future defined by the vision. Three case studies/applications 1. Wallonia 2020 2. Charleroi 2020 3. Vision 2020 of the Large Region Wallonia 2020 : A Citizen-based Foresight Exercise Wallonia 2020 Context - Included in a long term process : Wallonia to the Future (since 1987) - Paralell to the « Contrat d’Avenir » (Future Contract) of the walloon governement Initiative : - The « popular education movement » in Wallonia initiated the process of « Wallonia to the Future » supported by the government; it has been coordinated by The Destree Institute. Objectives : - To foster the collective and partcipative mobilisation of civil society of Wallonia to the preparation of a common strategic project; - To instil a foresight culture among the participants; - To enrol the process in the framework of good regional governance; - To coordinate this exercise with other ongoing works. Wallonia to the Future Towards a new paradigm 1987 Wallonia to the Future The Challenge of Education 1991 Wallonia to the Future (1987-2004) 1999 1999 Wallonia to the Future What are the strategies for employment? 1995 EVALUATION Wallonia to the Future 2000 Leaving the 20th Century: Evaluation, innovation, Foresight 1998 Wallonia 2020 2003 IWEPS FORESIGHT 2000 The Destree Institute Foresight Unit What was the duration of the exercise ? : 23 months To call fo actors To define the issues 75 meetings to produce and validate 4 issues November 2001 To define the desirable and possible futures 25 meetings to produce and validate 12 strategic options and 3 ultimate aims To propose strategic axis To make common recommendations 7 meetings to produce and validate 15 Innovative actions Closing Conference October 25, 2003 October 2003 in Namur Wallonia 2020 Involvement : a citizenship experience - A partnership foresight : 50 associated organizations (universities, political parties, professionnal and trade organizations, administrations, NGO’s, etc); - A citizen foresight : 400 volunteers willing to participate in the initiative; - A foresight exercise that associate young people : organization of working days in schools (secundary general, technical and professional schools); - The Scientific Council of Wallonia to the Future. Results : Issues, strategics options, innovative actions, implementation of a foresight regional college Lessons / difficulties : - Calibration of the work - A citizen-based exercise? - Loss of on-line contents - Hard to project into the future - Lack of decision-makers participation during the whole process Charleroi 2020 Charleroi 2020 Context To update previous initiatives : - 1991 : Charleroi city project - 1994 : Metropolitan Charleroi city charter 21 Initiative : - The city of Charleroi Objectives : - - To enable all the residents to help build a vision of their region's development and design a collective strategy to achieve this desired future; Civil society participants and citizens as well were encouraged to mobilise in order to define what Charleroi and its Urban Community wished to become and install the conditions for collective wellbeing by the 2020 horizon. Charleroi 2020 Involvement : a citizenship experience - Over 1,100 people participated in the exercise; Citizens, neighbourhood representatives, outside experts, heads of businesses and associations, retailers, teachers, civil servants and politicians. Results : Common vision (ultimate aims), strategic lines, innovative crosssectoral actions Lessons / difficulties : - - A methodological problem. It was found hard to move beyond a strictly thematic approach and to integrate the long-term variable by the participants. The solution proposed was to make room for a foresight phase that had not been planned initially so as to identify the long-term issues and a common vision prior to defining a territorial strategy. The phases of Charleroi 2020 Phase 1: Shared diagnosis based on the evaluation of Charleroi Métropole 21 Phase 2: Long-term issues Evolution of environment now to 2020 Phase 3: Common vision Ultimate aims for the 2020 horizon Phase 4: Strategic lines for Charleroi's development from 2004 Phase 5: Formulation, hierarchisation, & implementation of innovative actions F O R E S I G H T S T R A T E G Y Vision 2020 of the Large Region Vision 2020 : Large Region Context : - A long tradition of transborder cooperation; - The political summits of the Large Region Initiative : - The 5th political summit of the Large Region in 2001 - A proposal to develop a common perspective for further development and a common strategic vision. Objectives : - To restructure the strategic orientation of cross-border co-operation in the Large Region over the next 20 years Vision 2020 : Large Region Involvement : a focus on decision makers - The vision was developed by a limited group of decision makers gathered in a Political Commission under the chairmanship of the former European Commission President Jacques Santer Results : Common vision of the future, a new potential framework to develop the Large Region co-operation zone. Lessons / difficulties : - - Need to involve all the Large Region stakeholders to take into account the expectations and concrete needs of the citizens who were not part of the exercise; A gap was observed between Vision 2020's ambitions and the means foreseen for its actual implementation, as indicated in the declaration of the 7th Summit. Regional appraisal : « Draft list of indiactors » 1. Regional instruments/Foresight competences - Number of regional instruments - Organizations dealing with foresight - Fields of intervention 2. Use/application of foresight : - Number of exercises - Topics of application - Profiles offoresight initiators, stakeholders; - Products of foresight exercises - Follow-up, and sustainability of foresight approaches - Degree of exchange of experiences within the region and with other regions Potential topics for applications in/with Wallonia region 1. Option : both application within an interregional framework of cooperation; 2. Argument : attractiveness of learning from other regions and together with them, limited working groups composed of the project’s teams and key stakeholders 3. Potential topics of cooperation : - Structural funds : conception and follow-up of programmes - Competitive poles - Rural foresight - Society change management, regional values Networks linked with FUTURREG goals (1) Mutual Learing Plateform http://www.innovating-regions.org - A joint initiative of the EC led by DG Enterprise and supported by DG RTD, DG REGIO and the Committee of the Regions ; - It concentrates on three core topics: regional foresight, regional benchmarking and regional profiles in research and innovation ; - Regional foresight workshop: - On the basis of the Research DG action ‘Blueprints for Foresight Action in the Regions’. - Objective : update and complement existing foresight tools and disseminate them to regional actors. Networks linked with FUTURREG goals (2) The EFMN : the european foresight monitoring network (www.efmn.info) -It is financed by the EC DGR - initiatives intended to provide a Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform ; - A network of policy professionals, foresight experts and practitioners as well as analysts of Science, Technology and Innovation related issues ; - It develops foresight related content, analyzed in an annual workshop and disseminated via a website and mailing list (foresight briefs, list of events…). Networks linked with FUTURREG goals (3) For-Learn http://forlearn.jrc.es/index.htm - Under FP 6 and supported by the EC (DG-RTD) - A part of the European Foresight knowledge sharing plateform (KSP) - Aim to support the mutual learnin process via : - An online foresight guide - Workshops - …. Interregional up-skilling workshop (1) 1. Objective : to help develop champions within organisations responsible for regional development; 2. Beneficiaries : ideally champions and stakeholders of Futurreg applications; 3. Inputs - Futures toolkit based on futures tools reports and regional appraisals); - Testing phase of the toolkit - Selected applications (regional and interregional ones) 4. Trainers Futurreg teams + external experts (targeted inputs in relation with case application focus/needs Interregional up-skilling workshop (2) 5. Venue : Brussels 6. Date : by mid of June 2005 7. Structure : - presentation of the Futurreg initiative and its added value for regional participants; some words on the toolkit; - focus on key questions/issues on foresight exercises’ development raised by the toolkit and illustrations coming from the tools reports and external experts; - working session with the participants; presentation of their concerns, expectations from the Futurreg team, etc. Implementation procedure to build a vision Main source : Blueprints for Foresight Actions in the Regions initiative Questions to be discussed How to build it for the toolkit? - General aspects common for all the tools? - Specificities linked to some tools?