FUTURREG
Using futures tools in regional development projects
2nd Steering Committee meeting
January 24, 2005
URENIO, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki
FUTURREG
Futures tools report
« Visionary management »
Visionary management consists in bringing a
group of actors - involved in a territory (defined or to be
defined), a business or an organisation, etc. - to project
their ideas into the long-term future in order to envisage
the goals and values that form a common vision of their
future on behalf of the general interest, and to do this in
a collective and shared dynamics.
A vision is a shared picture of the desired future.
The vision is made up of the ultimate aims which could
show the long-term direction that should guide the
common strategy of the decision makers, the
stakeholders and the citizens
Visionary management is actually part of a
strategic foresight process structured
in five main phases
1
Strategic
actions
Ultimate aims and vision
Identification
and diagnosis
2
Long term issues
3
4
Strategy
The first three phases formulate the vision,
followed by the two final phases of the strategy
5
Methods
Identification
and diagnosis
Objectives
Broad and complete
information base
Expressing the mental
representations,
confronting with the
realities,
sharing of the diagnosis
Foresight
workshops,
SWOT analysis,
benchmarking,
etc.
Ultimate aims,
Long term
common
issues
vision
Scope
Sources of change,
internal and external
trends and impacts in
terms of issues
Global driving forces,
main issues
role and power of actors
against issues
Futures
workshops,
computer-based
tools (MICMAC),
control matrix
Normative phase of
defining a future
vision
Desirable futures,
sharing of the vision
Matrices
comparing
possible and
desirable futures
Identification and diagnosis
Providing
Knowledge base
Identify the
common ground
Express the mental
representations
Confrontation with
the realities
Sharing of the
diagnosis
Foresight
Workshops
SWOT
Analysis
Assessment data
Benchmarking
Setting out the long-term issues
Exploring the
possible futures
Gearing global with
local
Grading the long
term issues
Trends Issues
Gearing
Importance vs
Control Matrix
LIPSOR’s
MICMAC Software
Global
External
Trends
Trends
Issues
Gearing
Movement
Fabienne
Goux-Baudiment
Namur, 01.06.18
ISSUES
Internal
Trends
Local
Past
Future
Importance
of the changes
/ inertias
Strong
Importance
vs Control
Matrix
Michel Godet
Creating Futures
2001, p. 95.
Weak
Current
control
Weak
Strong
Building the Aims and the
Common Vision
Formulating the
desirable futures
Ultimate Aims
Sharing of the
vision
Foresight
Workshops
Possibles vs
Desirables Matrix
How to bridge the present with desired future ?
THE ULTIMATE AIMS = THE VISION
2010
2020
2015
THE ISSUES
DIAGNOSIS
Graphisme Nicolas George
Complementarity/synergy with other tools
►Two key facets of the foresight approach :
– the exploratory foresight, in order to elucidate the
evolutionary trends and deduce the underlying issues in
terms of threats or opportunities;
– the normative foresight in order to form visions of
desirable futures and develop collective strategies.
►Scenarios approach is a tool that can be integrated in
the proposed approach to illustrate the spectrum of possible
futures before building the chosen future defined by the
vision.
Three case studies/applications
1. Wallonia 2020
2. Charleroi 2020
3. Vision 2020 of the Large Region
Wallonia 2020 :
A Citizen-based Foresight Exercise
Wallonia 2020
Context
- Included in a long term process : Wallonia to the Future (since 1987)
- Paralell to the « Contrat d’Avenir » (Future Contract) of the walloon
governement
Initiative :
- The « popular education movement » in Wallonia initiated the
process of « Wallonia to the Future » supported by the
government; it has been coordinated by The Destree Institute.
Objectives :
- To foster the collective and partcipative mobilisation of civil society of
Wallonia to the preparation of a common strategic project;
- To instil a foresight culture among the participants;
- To enrol the process in the framework of good regional governance;
- To coordinate this exercise with other ongoing works.
Wallonia to the Future
Towards a new paradigm
1987
Wallonia to the Future
The Challenge of Education
1991
Wallonia to the Future
(1987-2004)
1999
1999
Wallonia to the Future
What are the strategies for
employment?
1995
EVALUATION
Wallonia to the Future
2000
Leaving the 20th Century: Evaluation,
innovation, Foresight
1998
Wallonia 2020
2003
IWEPS
FORESIGHT
2000
The Destree
Institute
Foresight Unit
What was the duration of the exercise ? : 23 months
To call fo
actors
To define
the issues
75
meetings
to produce
and
validate
4
issues
November 2001
To define the
desirable and
possible futures
25
meetings
to produce
and
validate
12
strategic
options
and
3 ultimate
aims
To propose
strategic
axis
To make common
recommendations
7 meetings
to produce
and
validate
15
Innovative
actions
Closing
Conference
October 25,
2003
October 2003 in Namur
Wallonia 2020
Involvement : a citizenship experience
- A partnership foresight : 50 associated organizations (universities, political
parties, professionnal and trade organizations, administrations, NGO’s,
etc);
- A citizen foresight : 400 volunteers willing to participate in the initiative;
- A foresight exercise that associate young people : organization of working
days in schools (secundary general, technical and professional schools);
- The Scientific Council of Wallonia to the Future.
Results : Issues, strategics options, innovative actions, implementation of a
foresight regional college
Lessons / difficulties :
- Calibration of the work
- A citizen-based exercise?
- Loss of on-line contents
- Hard to project into the future
- Lack of decision-makers participation during the whole process
Charleroi 2020
Charleroi 2020
Context
To update previous initiatives :
- 1991 : Charleroi city project
- 1994 : Metropolitan Charleroi city charter 21
Initiative :
- The city of Charleroi
Objectives :
-
-
To enable all the residents to help build a vision of their region's
development and design a collective strategy to achieve this
desired future;
Civil society participants and citizens as well were encouraged to
mobilise in order to define what Charleroi and its Urban Community
wished to become and install the conditions for collective wellbeing by the 2020 horizon.
Charleroi 2020
Involvement : a citizenship experience
-
Over 1,100 people participated in the exercise;
Citizens, neighbourhood representatives, outside experts, heads of
businesses and associations, retailers, teachers, civil servants and
politicians.
Results : Common vision (ultimate aims), strategic lines, innovative crosssectoral actions
Lessons / difficulties :
-
-
A methodological problem. It was found hard to move beyond a strictly
thematic approach and to integrate the long-term variable by the
participants.
The solution proposed was to make room for a foresight phase that had
not been planned initially so as to identify the long-term issues and a
common vision prior to defining a territorial strategy.
The phases of Charleroi 2020
Phase 1: Shared diagnosis based on
the evaluation of Charleroi Métropole 21
Phase 2: Long-term issues
Evolution of environment now to 2020
Phase 3: Common vision
Ultimate aims for the 2020 horizon
Phase 4: Strategic lines for
Charleroi's development from 2004
Phase 5: Formulation, hierarchisation, &
implementation of innovative actions
F
O
R
E
S
I
G
H
T
S
T
R
A
T
E
G
Y
Vision 2020 of the Large Region
Vision 2020 : Large Region
Context :
- A long tradition of transborder cooperation;
- The political summits of the Large Region
Initiative :
- The 5th political summit of the Large Region in 2001
- A proposal to develop a common perspective for further
development and a common strategic vision.
Objectives :
-
To restructure the strategic orientation of cross-border
co-operation in the Large Region over the next 20 years
Vision 2020 : Large Region
Involvement : a focus on decision makers
-
The vision was developed by a limited group of decision makers
gathered in a Political Commission under the chairmanship of
the former European Commission President Jacques Santer
Results : Common vision of the future, a new potential framework
to develop the Large Region co-operation zone.
Lessons / difficulties :
-
-
Need to involve all the Large Region stakeholders to take into
account the expectations and concrete needs of the citizens
who were not part of the exercise;
A gap was observed between Vision 2020's ambitions and the
means foreseen for its actual implementation, as indicated in
the declaration of the 7th Summit.
Regional appraisal : « Draft list of indiactors »
1. Regional instruments/Foresight competences
- Number of regional instruments
- Organizations dealing with foresight
- Fields of intervention
2. Use/application of foresight :
- Number of exercises
- Topics of application
- Profiles offoresight initiators, stakeholders;
- Products of foresight exercises
- Follow-up, and sustainability of foresight approaches
- Degree of exchange of experiences within the region and
with other regions
Potential topics for applications
in/with Wallonia region
1. Option : both application within an interregional
framework
of cooperation;
2. Argument : attractiveness of learning from other regions
and together with them, limited working groups composed
of the project’s teams and key stakeholders
3. Potential topics of cooperation :
- Structural funds : conception and follow-up of
programmes
- Competitive poles
- Rural foresight
- Society change management, regional values
Networks linked with FUTURREG goals (1)
Mutual Learing Plateform
http://www.innovating-regions.org
- A joint initiative of the EC led by DG Enterprise and
supported by DG RTD, DG REGIO and the Committee of
the Regions ;
- It concentrates on three core topics: regional foresight,
regional benchmarking and regional profiles in research
and innovation ;
- Regional foresight workshop:
- On the basis of the Research DG action ‘Blueprints for
Foresight Action in the Regions’.
- Objective : update and complement existing foresight
tools and disseminate them to regional actors.
Networks linked with FUTURREG goals (2)
The EFMN : the european foresight monitoring
network (www.efmn.info)
-It is financed by the EC DGR - initiatives intended to
provide a Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform ;
- A network of policy professionals, foresight experts
and practitioners as well as analysts of Science,
Technology and Innovation related issues ;
- It develops foresight related content, analyzed in an
annual workshop and disseminated via a website
and mailing list (foresight briefs, list of events…).
Networks linked with FUTURREG goals (3)
For-Learn
http://forlearn.jrc.es/index.htm
- Under FP 6 and supported by the EC (DG-RTD)
- A part of the European Foresight knowledge sharing
plateform (KSP)
- Aim to support the mutual learnin process via :
- An online foresight guide
- Workshops
- ….
Interregional up-skilling workshop (1)
1. Objective : to help develop champions within organisations
responsible for regional development;
2. Beneficiaries : ideally champions and stakeholders of
Futurreg applications;
3. Inputs
- Futures toolkit based on futures tools reports and
regional appraisals);
- Testing phase of the toolkit
- Selected applications (regional and interregional ones)
4. Trainers
Futurreg teams + external experts (targeted inputs in
relation with case application focus/needs
Interregional up-skilling workshop (2)
5. Venue : Brussels
6. Date : by mid of June 2005
7. Structure :
- presentation of the Futurreg initiative and its added
value for regional participants; some words on
the toolkit;
- focus on key questions/issues on foresight exercises’
development raised by the toolkit and illustrations
coming from the tools reports and external experts;
- working session with the participants; presentation of
their concerns, expectations from the Futurreg team,
etc.
Implementation procedure
to build a vision
Main source : Blueprints for Foresight
Actions in the Regions initiative
Questions to be discussed
How to build it for the toolkit?
- General aspects common for all the tools?
- Specificities linked to some tools?