Green New Deal for the North East ?
Session 1: Introduction and Overview
11th November 2009
Green New Deal for the North East?
November 11th, Great North Museum: Hancock
Welcome
Paul Younger FREng DL
Pro-Vice-Chancellor (Engagement)
Newcastle University
Green New Deal for the North East?
November 11th, Great North Museum: Hancock
“The world has enough
resources for everyone’s
need – but not enough
for everyone’s greed”
Mahatma Gandhi
Green New Deal for the North East?
November 11th, Great North Museum: Hancock
Proposal* for
a renewablypowered
Europe
* not in jest
Green New Deal for the North East?
November 11th, Great North Museum: Hancock
Renewable: virtuous, nice …
Fossil: evil, detestable …
(Concentrated Solar Power Plant, nr Seville)
(now-shelved proposed coal-fired plant, Cambois, N’thld)
11 MW
2400 MW
(Capacity factor: 50%)
Power for about 6000 homes
(Capacity factor: 75%)
Power for about 2 million homes
Green New Deal for the North East?
November 11th, Great North Museum: Hancock
Carbon is only part
of the story … what
about increasing
scarcity of crucial
metals and other
natural resources?
“The relative proportions of metal residing in ore in the lithosphere, in
use in products providing services, and in waste deposits measure our
progress from exclusive use of virgin ore toward full dependence on
sustained use of recycled metal. In the U.S. at present, the copper
contents of these three repositories are roughly equivalent, but metal in
service continues to increase. Providing today’s developed-country level
of services for copper worldwide (as well as for zinc and, perhaps,
platinum) would appear to require conversion of essentially all of the ore
in the lithosphere to stock-in-use plus near-complete recycling of the
metals from that point forward”.
Green New Deal for the North East?
November 11th, Great North Museum: Hancock
… but does the North East have
strategic advantages?
 Abundant natural resources:
• Best water resources in England
• Largest man-made forest in Europe
• Still 75% of coal in the ground
• Adjacent to some of Europe’s best offshore wind zones
• Two world-class deep-sea ports (Tyne and Tees)
 A stronghold of the real economy:
• Only region in England which still exports more than it
imports
• Major industrial strengths in the energy, process,
offshore and subsea sectors
A Green New for the North East?
John Tomaney
•
•
•
•
•
“Related variety”
“Phoenix Industries”
Green jobs: Toledo, Ohio vs. Austin, Tex.
Decentralized decision-making and strategies
Upcoming: Prof. Ron Martin, Cambridge, “The
North/South Divide and the Recession”, 9th
December (Registration open)
Copies available at: http://www.smith-institute.org.uk/
A Perfect Storm?
Key Questions
1. Can 9 billion people be fed
equitably, healthily and
sustainably?
Increased demand
50% by 2030 (IEA)
Energy
2. Can we cope with the future
demands on water?
Climate
Change
3. Can we provide enough
energy to supply the growing
population coming out of
poverty?
Food
Water
Increased demand
50% by 2030
Increased demand
30% by 2030
(FAO)
(IFPRI)
4. Can we do this whilst
mitigating and adapting to
climate change?
5. How does science and
engineering help in
preventing and adapting to
this perfect storm scenario?
Outline of the day: I
• Challenges
– Paul Mooney, ONE
– Ian Burdon, PB Power
• Armistice Day: Minute’s silence
• Break
• Technological Opportunities
–
–
–
–
–
–
Kevin Rowan, Northern TUC
Paul Younger, Joseph Swan Institute, Newcastle University
Matthew Lumsden, Future Transport Systems
Andrew Williamson, NaREC
Jos Beurskens, ECN Wind Energy, Netherlands
Graham Hillier, Centre for Process Innovation
Outline of the Day: II
• Lunch
• Planning and financing the Green New Deal
– Neil Murphy, BeyondGreen
– John Lowther, Tees Valley Joint Strategy Unit
– Ruth Rule, PwC
• Panel Discussion
–
–
–
–
Professor John Tomaney, CURDS
Prof Dermot Roddy, Sir Joseph Swan Institute, Newcastle University
Sarah Green, CBI
Kevin Rowan, Northern TUC
• Slides and Summary
Climate change: the regional dimension
Paul Mooney
Regional Insights: Green New Deal for the North East?
11th November 2009
Climate change is one many “must-dos”…
Business Competitiveness
Too few private firms
 Under-investment in public/private R&D
 Progress hampered by uneven economic
development in the region
 A long way to go on narrowing regional
income disparities
Social/Economic Inclusion
 Too few people in work
 Relatively unhealthy people hurts socially
and economically
 Intergenerational deprivation
 Impact of an ageing population
 Improving but still weak skills base
Natural Environment/Sustainability
 Carbon emissions going the wrong way
 We produce 5 times more greenhouse
gases than the 2050 target demands
 Tricky trade-offs between economy and
environment
Built Environment
 Poor transport links holding back our
economic prospects?
 Falling public transport use
 Out on a limb geographically
 Lack of housing diversity
…but its impact on the North East
could be dramatic…
• Average seasonal temperatures will increase
by just under 2°C
• Rainfall is projected to show increased
seasonality – increases of up to 21% in
winter, reductions of up to 37% in summer
• Variability in extreme rainfall events, but an
increase of up to 20% in some areas
• Reduction in the number of frost days
• Projected reduction in snowfall of between
45% and 83% depending on location
• Increase in mean sea levels of around 0.3m
Source: NE Climate Change Adaptation Study
Drive to a low carbon economy
• Policy and Regulatory changes
• Social and individual desires
• Changes in industrial demand
• Route out of downturn
• Energy Security
• Materials Security
• Energy Prices
• Fuel Poverty
…needs a big change in energy
generation and consumption
Regional Energy Consumption by Source, 2006
• Most of the energy we
use in the region comes
from fossil fuels
Renewables & waste
0.3%
Electricity
16.5%
• Nearly half is consumed
by industry making make
products mainly used
outside the region
Coal
13.5%
Manufactured fuels
2.2%
• So we’re affected more
than other regions by
rising fossil fuel energy
prices
Petroleum products (including
transport)
28.8%
Natural gas
38.7%
Tackling climate change …
45
CO2 emissions - tonnes pa
40
35
Other Transport
30
Road Transport
25
20
Industry
15
10
5
Residential
0
1990
2005
2020
2035
2050
Our share of the carbon reduction targets means cutting North East
C02 emissions to 7.7m tonnes by 2050 – that’s 20% of the 1990 level.
Source: AEA, NE Carbon Trajectories Study
…means business as usual isn’t an option
We’re heading in the
wrong direction…
…underlining the need for
concerted regional action
−
Meeting regional targets means drastic
cuts in C02 emissions
− supporting communities with low carbon
housing and energy solutions
−
Technology alone won’t deliver…
−
…we need behaviour changes
− a focused and sustained behavioural
change campaign
−
Our industrial base poses a significant
challenge for the region
−
As consumers our biggest vices are
energy use and personal transport
−
Early action can reduce costs of
adaptation
− spatial planning that affects personal
travel
− Promoting energy efficiency in firms and
households
− Replacing industrial infrastructure and the
future of energy-intensive industries
Impact of climate change mitigation on the
regional competitiveness…
Scale of competitiveness effects on GVA
(% of baseline forecast for 2020)
− NE economy on average more
capital intensive
Total Regional Effect
− Price effect from meeting CCA
targets is around1.4% of GVA
by 2020.
Govt & other services
Fin & Bus Services
Transport & Comms
− About £½ billion
− Biggest hit to utilities and
manufacturing
Distribution, hotels, catering
Construction
Utilities
Manufacturing
Source: Arup/Cambridge
Econometrics
Mining
Agriculture
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
…and potential market opportunities….
 Utilities….particularly offshore
electricity generation
 Wind turbine manufacture
 Retro-fitting domestic and commercial
buildings
 Low carbon vehicle manufacture
 Biofuel production
 Low carbon consultancy
 Development of more efficient process
machinery and systems
…can help boost the region’s economy
By 2020
Achieving full potential of market opportunities could boost regional
GVA by 1.8%
Utilities in the region could generate up to an additional £500M pa
GVA on back of renewable electricity target
Manufacture of wind turbine components could boost
manufacturing GVA by 2%
12% increase in automotive sector from low carbon vehicle
manufacture
Retro-fitting existing homes could add just under £90M pa to
construction GVA during 2010-2020
And its not just about the industrial base
• Similar approaches apply to non-industrial parts of the economy
Low carbon domestic, commercial and public buildings
Shared energy and resource programmes
Waste management
Shared transportation
• Low carbon sectors: engineering, digital, creative, education,
research, logistics, health, leisure,
• Smart transport systems, including electric vehicles and public
transport
• Smart Grids, Smart Cities
• Green cities for improved quality of life, attracting and retaining
people
How can we do this with intense
competition & tight resources?
Take advantage of policy & maximise current opportunities: integration and
synergy, building on existing investment, use of procurement
Raise awareness of opportunities
Develop clear strategy and plans
Focussed investment programme – public and private
Develop new business and financial models
New institutional capacity – expert analysis, planning, linkages and synergies.
system integration, digital management, asset ownership and management,
communications
Green New Deal for the North East
Energy: the looming crisis
Ian Burdon
Parsons Brinckerhoff
29
Agenda
•PB Qualifications in Electricity Supply
•Status Quo – National & Regional
•What’s the problem?
•Costs of Replacement and Renewal
•Environmental Issues
•The Future
•Conclusions
30
PB – Power
- Formerly Merz and McLellan + Kennedy & Donkin
• Credentials in power industry second to none
• Involved in majority of UK central generation plant
• Presently involved in all leading-edge technologies
• Active in the nuclear power field
• Experience in all renewable technologies:
– Biomass, Wind onshore and offshore, Wave, Tidal,
Hydroelectric, Solar and Geothermal
• Leading DECC technical work on CCS and Severn Tidal
• Now part of Belfour Beatty
31
Unique Characteristic of Electricity
- Production must instantaneously correspond to demand
Source: NG Seven Year Statement, May 2009
32
Government’s View
“In the medium-term, as plants start to close, the electricity
generating industry faces a substantial challenge in
ensuring delivery of the new capacity that will be needed
if Britain is to maintain security of supply at similar levels
to those so far enjoyed.”
Energy Markets Outlook Report, DECC, December 2008
33
UK Power Deficit
- Projected power plant capacity shortfall with no new-build
34
UK Power Plant Age
- Historic power plant investment
35
Plant Retirals
• Coal
12GW by 2015
• Nuclear
7.3 GW by 2020
• Gas
c.21GW by 2015*
Total UK capacity:
79GW
*Under IED Directive as currently drafted
36
Generating Capacity in the Region
Type
MW
•Gas
•Nuclear
•Coal (Alcan)
•CHP
•Wind
•Waste
•Biomass
•Hydro
2000
1190
420
185
106
45
10
6
Total
Dukes Table 5.11 and NG SYS Tables 4.1 and
E1.1
3962
37
Teesside Power
38
Generating Capacity in the Region
Type
MW
•Gas
•Nuclear
•Coal (Alcan)
•CHP
•Wind
•Waste
•Biomass
•Hydro
2000
1190
420
185
106
45
10
6
Total
Dukes Table 5.11 and NG SYS Table 4.1
3962
39
Hartlepool NPS
40
Generating Capacity in the Region
Type
MW
•Gas
•Nuclear
•Coal (Alcan)
•CHP
•Wind
•Waste
•Biomass
•Hydro
2000
1190
420
185
106
45
10
6
Total
Dukes Table 5.11 and NG SYS Table 4.1
3962
41
Alcan Coal PS
42
Generating Capacity in the Region
Type
MW
•Gas
•Nuclear
•Coal (Alcan)
•CHP
•Wind
•Waste
•Biomass
•Hydro
2000
1190
420*
185
106
45
10
6
Total
3962
NB: 2009/10 max demand
Dukes Table 5.11 and NG SYS Tables 4.1 and
E1.1
43
2 956MW
The Problem
 20% of energy across the EU to be renewable
 15% of all energy in the UK to be renewable
 30 – 40% of electricity to be renewable
Plus
 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050
44
Electricity Consumption in the Region (GWh)
• Domestic
NE
4 430
GB
117 126
• Commercial & Industrial
8 912
192 543
13 342
309 669
615
20 964
4.6
6.8
Total
• Renewables (2008)
% Renewable
Energy Trends, Sep 2009
45
UK Renewable Generation
Energy Trends, Sep 2009
46
UK Wind Energy
Energy Trends, Sep 2009
47
Power Cuts?
48
Powering the Nation
49
The Rationale
• Opportunity for PB to publish views in its own right
• Independent and impartial input into UK energy policy
• Factual evidence on basis of PB involvement in projects
and understanding of the technologies.
50
2009 Findings
2009
35.00
30.00
Levelised Cost (p/kWh)
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Wave
Capital expenditure
Tidal
Wind Turbine
(Offshore)
Fuel
BFBC
Operation & maintenance
OCGT
IGCC
General overhead
51
Wind Turbine
(Onshore)
Standby energy
CFBC
CCGT
Carbon emissions
Coal Plant
Nuclear
October'09 Base Load Price
2006 – 2009 Findings
35.00
Levelised Cost (p/kWh)
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
Wave
Tidal
Wind Turbine
(Offshore)
BFBC
IGCC
OCGT
2009
2008
52
2006
Wind Turbine
(Onshore)
CFBC
CCGT
Coal Plant
Nuclear
Nuclear Decommissioning Costs
•
Real Interest rate 3.5%
•
Discount factor 2%
•
Annual Payments of £12¼m
Fund Value (£'M)
£3,000
£2,500
Key
Payments
£2,000
Construction Period
£1,500
Interest
Balance
£1,000
£500
£0
5
10
15
20
25
Year
53
30
35
40
45
Arklow Turbines – Idyllic?
Courtesy Pyeroy Ltd
54
Arklow re-painting – H&S?
Courtesy Pyeroy Ltd
55
Access
“Turbines will be further from land and be fixed in deeper water,
making maintenance and installation more difficult.”
Andrew Dever, Vestas, Nov 2009
56
Technological Progress
PV Cost £/W
- Learning Curves
Progress ratio 80%
Cumulative Production GW
57
Carbon Prices
Point Carbon Secondary CER OTC assessment - 29 Oct 09
58
Costs of Carbon Capture
14.00
Levelised Cost (p/kWh)
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
Coal Plant
Without CCS
59
IGCC
With CCS
CCGT
Capital Investment Estimate
2009 - 2015
£bn
2016 - 2025
£bn
Total
£bn
Nuclear Generation
7.7
28.9
36.6
Gas Generation
7.1
0.1
7.2
Coal with CCS Generation
1.9
5.4
7.3
40.4
44.5
84.9
Offshore Electricity Transmission
5.7
4.1
9.8
Electricity Transmission incl. grid reinforcement/interconnection
4.9
7.5
12.4
Electricity and Gas Distribution – additional network investment
2.1
2.1
4.2
Smart Metering
3.4
5.9
9.3
Carbon Emissions Reduction Target (CERT) / Supplier
Obligation (SO)
7.3
8.5
15.8
Gas Storage
7.6
1.1
8.7
LNG Import Terminals
0.6
0.0
0.6
Gas Transmission – additional interconnection
0.2
0.0
0.2
CCS Infrastructure
1.3
0.7
2.0
90.3
108.7
199.0
Renewables Generation
Total
Source: Ernst & Young (July, 2009)
60
Impact of Future Policies
• Climate Change Act 2008
• EU Emissions Trading Scheme Phase iii
• EU Large Combustion Plant Directive
• EU Industrial Emissions Directive (2016)
• EU Renewables Directive
• Copenhagen 2009
• The next Election?
61
Forthcoming Attraction!
62
Stern Challenges (i)
• From 2020 onwards, new plant would have to be built at a rate that
is at least equal to the highest historical rate achieved by the UK.
• A holistic approach to the production, transmission, distribution and
control of electricity production and demand will be essential.
• Renewable power generation will make a large contribution to
future electricity production - likely to include a significant
embedded component thus reducing production required from
central power stations.
• Actions to meet the 2020 renewables target may have unintended
consequences on attainment of 2050 carbon target – widespread
adoption of wind power could severely undermine the viability of
other low-carbon technologies.
63
Stern Challenges (ii)
• Wind power, nuclear power and PV are collectively essential to the
decarbonisation of electricity production. Choice between these
alternatives must be made on operational, economic and energy
security grounds.
• The omission of a nuclear programme would result in heavy
dependence on CCS technology, which is currently unproven at the
scale required for a major power plant.
• Fuel diversity can be managed if a holistic view of UK energy use is
taken. A good diversity of fuels can be achieved by substituting
electricity for oil in the transport sector and by having a flexible
electricity generation mix.
64
Can it be Done?
“Whilst an 80% reduction in carbon emissions by
2050 is feasible, it is extraordinarily challenging.”
Powering the Future – mapping our low-carbon path to 2050, Parsons Brinckerhoff, December 2009
65
Oil & Money Conference – Oct 09
•John B Hess, chief executive of the $20bn Hess Corporation,
warned that the world "does not have the scale,
time frame or economics to devote to the complete eradication
of carbon emissions from sources of fuel within the next four
decades”.
•Richard Guerrant, Exxon Mobil's director for Europe, said:
"Although wind power doesn't emit carbon dioxide, the wind
doesn't always blow. Nuclear doesn't have the flexibility to be a
suitable option. The greater flexibility of gas-fired plants makes
them a better choice to meet this growing requirement."
•Tony Hayward, chief executive of BP, insisted that “petrol would be
the dominant transport fuel for years; cleaner gas-fired power
stations should play the dominant role in helping replacing dirty
coal plants”.
66
Our Childrens’ Children?
The Ultimate Provider
Fusion
The first generation of fusion power plants will use the D-T fusion reaction.
Nuclei of two isotopes of hydrogen, deuterium (D) and tritium (T) react to
produce a helium (He) nucleus and a neutron (n).
In each reaction, 17.6 MeV of energy (2.8 pJ) is liberated:
D + T = 4He (3.5 MeV) + n (14.1 MeV)
ZETA - 1952
JET - 1984
JET Torus
ITER -2018
ITER Tokamak will be nearly 30 metres tall, and weigh 23 000 tons
The Cost ?
The Cost ?
THANK YOU !
burdoni@pbworld.com
76