Solutions for Chapter 18: Questions and Problems CHAPTER 18 EVALUATION OF PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE Answers to Questions 1. The two major factors would be: (1) attempt to derive risk-adjusted returns that exceed a naive buy-and-hold policy and (2) completely diversify - i.e., eliminate all unsystematic risk from the portfolio. A portfolio manager can do one or both of two things to derive superior risk-adjusted returns. The first is to have superior timing regarding market cycles and adjust your portfolio accordingly. Alternatively, one can consistently select undervalued stocks. As long as you do not make major mistakes with the rest of the portfolio, these actions should result in superior risk-adjusted returns. 2. Treynor (1965) divided a fund’s excess return (return less risk-free rate) by its beta. For a fund not completely diversified, Treynor’s “T” value will understate risk and overstate performance. Sharpe (1966) divided a fund’s excess return by its standard deviation. Sharpe’s “S” value will produce evaluations very similar to Treynor’s for funds that are well diversified. Jensen (1968) measures performance as the difference between a fund’s actual and required returns. Since the latter return is based on the CAPM and a fund’s beta, Jensen makes the same implicit assumptions as Treynor - namely, that funds are completely diversified. The information ratio (IR) measures a portfolio’s average return in excess of that of a benchmark, divided by the standard deviation of this excess return. Like Sharpe, it can be used when the fund is not necessarily well-diversified. 3. For portfolios with R2 values noticeably less than 1.0, it would make sense to compute both measures. Differences in the rankings generated by the two measures would suggest less-than-complete diversification by some funds - specifically, those that were ranked higher by Treynor than by Sharpe. 4. Jensen’s alpha () is found from the equation Rjt – RFRt = j + j[Rmt – RFRt] +ejt. The aj indicates whether a manager has superior (j > 0) or inferior (j < 0) ability in market timing or stock selection, or both. As suggested above, Jensen defines superior (inferior) performance as a positive (negative) difference between a manager’s actual return and his CAPM-based required return. For poorly diversified funds, Jensen’s rankings would more closely resemble Treynor’s. For well-diversified funds, Jensen’s rankings would follow those of both Treynor and Sharpe. By replacing the CAPM with the APT, differences between funds’ actual and required returns (or “alphas”) could provide fresh evaluations of funds. - 138 Copyright © 2010 by Nelson Education Ltd. Solutions for Chapter 18: Questions and Problems 5. The Information Ratio (IR) is calculated by dividing the average return on the portfolio less a benchmark return by the standard deviation of the excess return. The IR can be viewed as a benefit-cost ratio in that the standard deviation of return can be viewed as a cost associated in the sense that it measures the unsystematic risk taken on by active management. Thus IR is a cost-benefit ratio that assesses the quality of the investor’s information deflated by unsystematic risk generated by the investment process. 6. The difference by which a manager’s overall actual return beats his/her overall benchmark return is termed the total value-added return and decomposes into an allocation effect and a selection effect. The former effect measures differences in weights assigned by the actual and benchmark portfolios to stocks, bonds and cash times the respective differences between market-specific benchmark returns and the overall benchmark return. The latter effect focuses on the market-specific actual returns less the corresponding market-specific benchmark returns times the weights assigned to each market by the actual portfolio. Of course, the foregoing analysis implicitly assumes that the actual and benchmark market-specific portfolios (e.g., stocks) are risk-equivalent. If this is not true the analysis would not be valid. 7. When measuring the performance of an equity portfolio manager, overall returns can be related to a common total risk or systematic risk. Factors influencing the returns achieved by the bond portfolio manager are more complex. In order to evaluate performance based on a common risk measure (i.e., market index), four components must be considered that differentiate the individual portfolio from the market index. These components include: (1) a policy effect, (2) a rate anticipation effect, (3) an analysis effect, and (4) a trading effect. Decision variables involved include the impact of duration decisions, anticipation of sector/quality factors, and the impact of individual bond selection. - 139 Copyright © 2010 by Nelson Education Ltd. Solutions for Chapter 18: Questions and Problems CHAPTER 18 Answers to Problems 1(a). .15 .07 0.05 .20 .07 .10 .10 .07 .03 .17 .07 .06 .13 .07 .04 SP SQ SR SS Market .08 1.60 .05 .13 1.30 .10 .03 1.00 .03 .10 1.67 .06 .06 1.50 .04 1(b). TP .15 .07 .08 .0800 1.00 1.00 TQ .20 .07 .13 .0867 1.50 1.50 TR .10 .07 .03 .0500 .60 .60 TS .17 .07 .10 .0909 1.10 1.10 Market .13 .07 .06 .0600 1.00 1.00 Sharpe Treynor P Q R S Market 1(c). 2 4 5 1 3 3 2 5 1 4 It is apparent from the rankings above that Portfolio Q was poorly diversified since Treynor ranked it #2 and Sharpe ranked it #4. Otherwise, the rankings are similar. - 140 Copyright © 2010 by Nelson Education Ltd. Solutions for Chapter 18: Questions and Problems 2(a). Portfolio MNO enjoyed the highest degree of diversification since it had the highest R 2 (94.8%). The statistical logic behind this conclusion comes from the CAPM which says that all fully diversified portfolios should be priced along the security market line. R2 is a measure of how well assets conform to the security market line, so R 2 is also a measure of diversification. 2(b). Note the mean returns are net of the risk-free rate. Doing the calculations we obtain: Fund Treynor Sharpe Jensen ABC 0.975(4) 0.857(4) 0.192(4) DEF 0.715(5) 0.619(5) -0.053(5) GHI 1.574(1) 1.179(1) 0.463(1) JKL 1.262(2) 0.915(3) 0.355(2) MNO 1.134(3) 1.000(2) 0.296(3) 2(c). Fund ABC DEF GHI JKL MNO t(alpha) 1.7455(3) -0.2789(5) 2.4368(1) 1.6136(4) 2.1143(2) Only GHI and MNO have significantly positive alphas at a 95% level of confidence. 3(a). (Information ratio) IRj = j/u where u = standard error of the regression IRA = .058/.533 = 0.1088 IRB = .115/5.884 = 0.0195 IRC = .250/2.165 = 0.1155 3(b). Annualized IR = (T)1/2(IR) Annualized IRA = (52)1/2(0.1088) = 0.7846 Annualized IRB = (26)1/2(0.0195) = 0.0994 Annualized IRC = (12)1/2(0.1155) = 0.4001 3(c). The higher the ratio, the better. Based upon the answers to part a, Manager C would be rated the highest followed by Managers A and B, respectively. However, once the values are annualized, the ranking change. Specifically, based upon the annualized IR, Manger A is rated the highest, followed by C and B. (In both cases, Manager B is rated last). Based upon the Grinold-Kahn standard for “good” performance (0.500 or greater), only Manager A meets that test. 4(a). Overall performance (Fund 1) = 26.40% - 6.20% = 20.20% Overall performance (Fund 2) = 13.22% - 6.20% = 7.02% - 141 Copyright © 2010 by Nelson Education Ltd. Solutions for Chapter 18: Questions and Problems 4(b). E(Ri) = 6.20 + (15.71 – 6.20) = 6.20 + (9.51) Total return (Fund 1) = 6.20 + (1.351)(9.51) = 6.20 + 12.85 = 19.05% where 12.85% is the required return for risk Total return (Fund 2) = 6.20 + (0.905)(9.51) = 6.20 + 8.61 = 14.81% where 8.61% is the required return for risk 4(c)(i). Selectivity1 = 20.2% - 12.85% = 7.35% Selectivity2 = 7.02% - 8.61% = -1.59% 4(c)(ii).Ratio of total risk1 = 1/m = 20.67/13.25 = 1.56 Ratio of total risk2 = 2/m = 14.20/13.25 = 1.07 R1 = 6.20 + 1.56 (9.51) = 6.20 + 14.8356 = 21.04% R2 = 6.20 + 1.07 (9.51) = 6.20 + 10.1757 = 16.38% Diversification1 = 21.04% – 19.05% = 1.99% Diversification2 = 16.38% – 14.81% = 1.57% 4(c)(iii). Net Selectivity = Selectivity – Diversification Net Selectivity1 = 7.35% - 1.99% = 5.36% Net Selectivity2 = -1.59% - 1.57% = -3.16% 4(d). Even accounting for the added cost of incomplete diversification, Fund 1’s performance was above the market line (best performance), while Fund 2 fall below the line. 5. a. Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Average Mgr X Return -1.5 -1.5 -1.5 -1.0 0.0 4.5 6.5 8.5 13.5 17.5 4.5 Mgr Y Return -6.5 -3.5 -1.5 3.5 4.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 12.5 13.5 4.5 - 142 Copyright © 2010 by Nelson Education Ltd. Solutions for Chapter 18: Questions and Problems Std Dev 6.90 6.63 Semi-dev 0.65 4.20 Semi-deviation considers only the returns that are below the average. b. Sharpe ratio: (average return minus risk-free rate) / standard deviation Mgr X: 0.435 Mgr Y: 0.452 Best performer 6. 6(a)(i). .6(-5) + .3(-3.5) + .1(0.3) = -4.02% 6(a)(ii). .5(-4) + .2(-2.5) + .3(0.3) = -2.41% 6(a)(iii). .3(-5) + .4(-3.5) + .3(0.3) = -2.81% Manager A outperformed the benchmark fund by 161 basis points while Manager B beat the benchmark fund by 121 basis points. 6(b)(i). [.5(-4 + 5) + .2(-2.5 + 3.5) + .3(.3 -.3)] = 0.70% 6(b)(ii). [(.3 - .6) (-5 + 4.02) + (.4 - .3) (-3.5 + 4.02) + (.3 -.1)(.3 + 4.02)] = 1.21% Manager A added value through her selection skills (70 of 161 basis points) and her allocation skills (71 of 161 basis points). Manager B added value totally through his allocation skills (121 of 121 basis points). 7 (a). Dollar-Weighted Return Manager L: 500,000 = -12,000/(1+r) - 7,500/(1+r)2- 13,500/(1+r)3 - 6,500/(1+r)4- 10,000/(1+r)5+ 625,000/(1+r)5 Solving for r, the internal rate of return or DWRR is 2.75% Manager M: 700,000 = 35,000/(1+r) + 35,000/(1+r)2+35,000/(1+r)3+35,000/(1+r)4+35,000/(1+r)5 + 625,000/(1+r)5 Solving for r, the internal rate of return or DWRR is 2.98%. - 143 Copyright © 2010 by Nelson Education Ltd. Solutions for Chapter 18: Questions and Problems 7(b). Time-weighted return Manager L: Periods 1 2 3 4 5 HPR [(527,000 – 500,000) – 12,000]/500,000 = .03 [(530,000 – 527,000) – 7,500]/527,000 = -.0085 [(555,000 – 530,000) – 13,500]/530,000 = .0217 [(580,000 – 555,000) – 6,500]/555,000 = .0333 [(625,000 – 580,000) – 10,000]/580,000 = .0603 TWRR = [(1 + .03)(1 - .0085)(1 + .0217)(1 + .0333)(1 + .0603)]1/5 - 1 = (1.143) 1/5 – 1= 1.02712 – 1 = .02712 = 2.71% Manager M: Periods 1 2 3 4 5 HPR [(692,000 – 700,000) + 35,000]/700,000 = .03857 [(663,000 – 692,000) + 35,000]/692,000 = .00867 [(621,000 – 663,000) + 35,000]/663,000 = -.01056 [(612,000 – 621,000) + 35,000]/621,000 = .04187 [(625,000 – 612,000) + 35,000]/612,000 = .0784 TWRR = [(1 + .03857)(1 + .00867)(1 - .01056)(1 + .04187)(1 + .0784)]1/5 - 1 = (1.1646) 1/5 – 1= 1.03094 – 1 = .03094 = 3.094% EV – (1 – DW)(Contribution) - 144 Copyright © 2010 by Nelson Education Ltd.